GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12Z Euro landfalls at CHS near sunrise on Sat 8/27 with lowest pressure in the 940's of mb's....cat. 4? The chances of that occuring there with a NORTHbound H are quite low imo. So, I'm educatedly guessing that this is due to the Euro dropping pressure too low as often happened during the 2010 season. That type of thing is more likely in that area with a W to NW bound storm when stronger high pressure is to the north such as occurred in 1989 with Hugo and in 1959 with Gracie. Also, the WNW bound 1898 GA/FL border storm was like that. In this case, the strongest high pressure is to the east, which is not as conducive to very strong deepening. Regardless, this would still be quite a storm with it likely a cat. 2 to possibly 3 and a large storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That euro track seems very similar to this perhaps less interaction with Hispanola http://weather.unisy...CHRIS/track.gif If memory serves me right, Chris had quite a few tornadoes at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Brisk winds for DC: What's the pressure say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This could be very Floyd-esque in the fact that it would be an emergency manager's worst nightmare in terms of evacuation decisions. This isn't going to be a classic recurve given the trough is lifting out and ridging building back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS and Euro agree on the track. These are my models of choice for the storm. It is a rather large storm that global models can handle, Therefore GFDL HWRF WRF= TMI CMC UKMET= Not so great either. Edit: Using the trend as my freind, and the west bias of models, I am going with NC/SC border landfall as a 130mph CAT3. My call unless things change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 0Z Euro landfalls at CHS near sunrise on Sat 8/27 with lowest pressure in the 940's of mb's....cat. 4? The chances of that occuring with a NORTHbound H are quite low imo. That type of thing is more likely in that area with a W to NW bound storm when stronger high pressure is to the north such as occured in 1989 with Hugo and in 1959 with Gracie. Also, the WNW bound 1898 GA/FL border storm was like that. In this case, the strongest high pressure is to the east, which is not as conducive to very strong deepening. Great post....n bound systems are also very problematic along the se coast because small deviations in track could have large impacts relative to point of lf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What's the pressure say? Plymouth is horrible for pressure analysis with TC's....not sure what Allan's site shows.. Edit: 983 per Allan's site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What's the pressure say? Looks like 989 mb. Either a weak Category 1 hurricane, or a strong Tropical Storm at this frame on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't recall how winds were with Floyd (I was in South Jersey at the time and we MAYBE had a few TS force gusts, but nothing sustained over 20-30 mph...and i was only 5 miles inland). So those of you in the Northeast through NJ, maybe DE, I would not be banking on wind being the story. This is clearly a rain/flood story. The precip that falls from this storm may not be similar at all to Floyd, but the model similarities are certainly there to suggest it. The biggest problem right now is that antecedent conditions ahead of Floyd were somewhat drier than they are currently. Interior PA through VA were running about 150-300% of normal in the 2-3 weeks leading into Floyd. But east and north of there, they were running normal to slightly below. Right now, all of Southern New England, SE NY, NJ, PA, DE, and MD are running at 150-300% or more of normal. While we still have a long way to go, this is somewhat concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This could be very Floyd-esque in the fact that it would be an emergency manager's worst nightmare in terms of evacuation decisions. This isn't going to be a classic recurve given the trough is lifting out and ridging building back in. That I can certainly agree with, given the oblique angle the storm approaches the coastline. Its just worth mentioning though that the storm does not undergo baroclinic interaction until around 180 hours out, and by that time the storm has already been well inland. This is not a Floyd type scenario in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hmm,. the wife and I are supposed to go to Charleston Thursday through Sunday for our 10 year anniversary. Perfect... Get a nice place to stay and go for some retail therapy... she will love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That I can certainly agree with, given the oblique angle the storm approaches the coastline. Its just worth mentioning that the storm does not undergo baroclinic interaction until around 180 hours out, and by that time the storm has already been well inland. This is not a Floyd type scenario in this regard. I agree whole heartedly. My only reason for mentioning Floyd was to compare the logistics nightmare for EMs. If Irene does not get torn up too bad by Hispaniola, then this very well could be a powerful, strengthening system as it reaches US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12Z Euro landfalls at CHS near sunrise on Sat 8/27 with lowest pressure in the 940's of mb's....cat. 4? The chances of that occuring there with a NORTHbound H are quite low imo. So, I'm educatedly guessing that this is due to the Euro dropping pressure too low as often happened during the 2010 season. That type of thing is more likely in that area with a W to NW bound storm when stronger high pressure is to the north such as occurred in 1989 with Hugo and in 1959 with Gracie. Also, the WNW bound 1898 GA/FL border storm was like that. In this case, the strongest high pressure is to the east, which is not as conducive to very strong deepening. Regardless, this would still be quite a storm with it likely a cat. 2 to possibly 3 and a large storm. If you look at the upper-air pattern projected by the GFS/ECMWF just prior to landfall, it resembles much more Hugo (although not quite that favorable) and less Floyd. I'm certainly not forecasting a Cat 4 landfall by any means though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I agree whole heartedly. My only reason for mentioning Floyd was to compare the logistics nightmare for EMs. If Irene does not get torn up too bad by Hispaniola, then this very well could be a powerful, strengthening system as it reaches US landfall. Eh...powerful, sure....but not so sold on strengthening. Exceptionally rare to have a major, intensifying system making lf at that latitude......hell, it's hard enough in the GOM. I'll bet against that, but at this time tange, it's all conjecture. No use getting hung up on detes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Eh...powerful, sure....but not so sold on strengthening. Exceptionally rare to have a major, intensifying system making lf at that latitude......hell, it's hard enough in the GOM. I'll bet against that, but at this time tange, it's all conjecture. No use getting hung up on detes. I didn't speak it with absolute certainty, but it is definitely possible given the progged synoptic environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I didn't speak it with absolute certainty, but it is definitely possible given the progged synoptic environment. Agreed. Often "north-moving" means "accelerating northward due to the influence of a nearby trough". In this case, it's more of a northward (or possibly even northwestward?) drift as the storm is between systems. It's not exactly the same scenario as a "normal" northward-moving cyclone at the point of landfall, so it's hard to say it would behave "normally". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I continue to wonder about Florida. The model shift this AM was pretty abrupt (IMHO). I'll take Floyd track and have it leave us alone, without any reservations. But, I don't want to wake up in two days staring down the barrel. So, not an IMBY request, but if anyone has good reason to think this thing will model back westward, please advise, and also please explain why, so that those of us who are less sophisticated can watch whatever feature someone feels might cause her to model more westerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Brisk winds for DC: The specific storm effects for NVA/MD/South Central PA: 1. Tidal aberrations 2. Trees down on homes and roads 3. Power outages 4. Work and school disruptions 5. Insurance claims If Irene comes into the Carolinas as a Cat III, the Mid-Atlantic will have sustained winds in the 40s with gusts in the 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Eh...powerful, sure....but not so sold on strengthening. Exceptionally rare to have a major, intensifying system making lf at that latitude......hell, it's hard enough in the GOM. I'll bet against that, but at this time tange, it's all conjecture. No use getting hung up on detes. Oh I don't think anybody here is sold yet with the intensity the ECWMF shows. There are just way too many unknowns with regards to storm strength post Hispaniola. My only argument is that this is not a Floyd case, both in regards to strong winds in the NE and the Flooding rains that occurred with that system as well. That was the result of direct baroclinic interaction that cased a direct phase between Floyd and a s/w impulse... both the ECWMF and GFS do not show this at all right now. Floyd: Irene: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I continue to wonder about Florida. The model shift this AM was pretty abrupt (IMHO). I'll take Floyd track and have it leave us alone, without any reservations. But, I don't want to wake up in two days staring down the barrel. So, not an IMBY request, but if anyone has good reason to think this thing will model back westward, please advise, and also please explain why, so that those of us who are less sophisticated can watch whatever feature someone feels might cause her to model more westerly. As some have noted, it is certainly possible that during the period of "drift" while the storm is caught between troughs, the subtropical ridge may have time to build back in temporarily. If it does, Irene could drift more northwestward rather than northward as currently modeled off the east coast of Florida. Although GA and SC seem more likely at this point, FL cannot be ruled out. South Florida, however, is looking less and less likely, barring any major changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I continue to wonder about Florida. The model shift this AM was pretty abrupt (IMHO). I'll take Floyd track and have it leave us alone, without any reservations. But, I don't want to wake up in two days staring down the barrel. So, not an IMBY request, but if anyone has good reason to think this thing will model back westward, please advise, and also please explain why, so that those of us who are less sophisticated can watch whatever feature someone feels might cause her to model more westerly. I think the cone is settled...we have a good idea now as to who's going to be impacted...now it's a matter of directly/indirectly/only somewhat. I think we're sort of on our own at this point until we see how this thing interacts with Hispaniola. Until we get past that point, I think the models are going to stay within this band of close brush w/ FL north to NC potential. If the Atlantic ridge is a little bit stronger than the model forecasts, that increases the risk to FL. Any number of things can change over the next 48 hours on the models...so I think at this point you just need to watch features like that and watch observationally, how Irene interacts w/ Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I really wouldn't pay attention to central pressures on the globals. I know the GFS uses a "bogus vortex" because of its resolution anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12Z Euro landfalls at CHS near sunrise on Sat 8/27 with lowest pressure in the 940's of mb's....cat. 4? The chances of that occuring there with a NORTHbound H are quite low imo. So, I'm educatedly guessing that this is due to the Euro dropping pressure too low as often happened during the 2010 season. That type of thing is more likely in that area with a W to NW bound storm when stronger high pressure is to the north such as occurred in 1989 with Hugo and in 1959 with Gracie. Also, the WNW bound 1898 GA/FL border storm was like that. In this case, the strongest high pressure is to the east, which is not as conducive to very strong deepening. Regardless, this would still be quite a storm with it likely a cat. 2 to possibly 3 and a large storm. I don't think any hard rules can be determined from such a small sample set-- i.e., the handful of majors that hit GA/SC/NC in the last century or more. I'm the first to say that a cyclone with a W component in its movement is more likely to be healthy, but that is not written in stone, and I should point out that one of the strongest landfalls in the region-- Hazel 1954, which had an intensity around ~938 mb/115 kt-- was moving just E of due N. I'm not saying the Euro doesn't overdo it with the pressures, and I'm definitely not saying Charleston's getting a Cat 4-- just that I don't think we can take a deterministic view of intensity based on heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm don't think any hard rules can be determined from such a small sample set-- i.e., the handful of majors that hit GA/SC/NC in the last century or more. I'm the first to say that a cyclone with a W component in its movement is more likely to be healthy, but that is not written in stone, and I should point out that one of the strongest landfalls in the region-- Hazel 1954, which had an intensity around ~938 mb/115-- was moving just E of due N. I'm not saying the Euro doesn't overdo it with the pressures, and I'm definitely not saying Charleston's getting a Cat 4-- just that I don't think we can take a deterministic view of intensity based on heading. Would you chase an East Coast event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Agreed. Often "north-moving" means "accelerating northward due to the influence of a nearby trough". In this case, it's more of a northward (or possibly even northwestward?) drift as the storm is between systems. It's not exactly the same scenario as a "normal" northward-moving cyclone at the point of landfall, so it's hard to say it would behave "normally". Cool...thanks, Mike. I'll still bet against it, but maybe this will be an exception. Fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Would you chase an East Coast event? A solid one? Yes. I tend to me Mr. Caribbean/Gulf these days, but I wouldn't rule it out if it looks like a good cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A quick Hispaniola topography review... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A quick Hispaniola topography review... N side much less hostile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://www.sstcharts...20_06_00_PM.pdf I see temps of 88°F in there, that is toasty! As you can see, SSTs are very warm and with the right atmospheric conditions could cause for Irene to go under rapid development so I wouldn't necessarily rule out a Cat 3 hurricane at landfall although in my opinion a Cat 2 is more likely. I also agree that a Floyd track looks unlikely as there isn't much troughing to push this out to sea. I can see a hybrid track between Hugo and Floyd with the storm tracking over Raleigh to Harrisburg, PA. I honestly think the Bermuda high tries to build back to the west and prevents it from your typical hook out to sea but rather a slow creep up the inner coast until troughing comes down to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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