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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point.

Strongly agree.....brush n of Hisp. seem to be in order.

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Quick reminder: Euro pressures often verified way too low last season, especially near these latitudes. I'd recommend treating Euro pressures, when they are much lower than the model consensus, as the strong end of what may happen.

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Again before anyone cries fish, the way the ridging builds back might even allow for a slight westward component of motion as the system literally crawls up the coastline. Needless to say, this is a pretty interesting solution. Verbatim, this is a rather significant landfall for GA/SC coastline.

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