yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 72 hrs EURO is just SW of the Bahamas... in between Hispaola and Cuba it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 979mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 is irene forming an eye!!!! Last frame looks like it it does look like it.. but it's probably just a wane in convection.. lets wait another 2-3 frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 96 maybe 24N/78W at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 is irene forming an eye!!!! Last frame looks like it Its not really an eye, more like a psudo eye due to a dry spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 at 96 hours, its due north of central Cuba, southeast a couple hundred miles from Miami in the middle of the Bahamas. By 102 hour its really depened quickly due east of Miami 150 to 200 mi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Lets wait at least a few more scans before we say "eye" edit: i agree with Its not really an eye, more like a psudo eye due to a dry spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 While it seems that Irene has become more vertically aligned, it still appears to be suffering from dry air intrusion on the southern flank per the observation of arc-clouds emanating from the overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=JUA&brand=wui&num=40&delay=9&type=N0Z&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1313949040&lat=18.46724892&lon=-66.10896301&label=San+Juan%2C+PR&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=0&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Looks like the center is ever-so-slightly south of due east of Saint Croix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=0 Looks like the center is ever-so-slightly south of due east of Saint Croix. wow cool radar loop... you can actually see the collapsing convection associated with the arc clouds on the SW side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 if that is actually the eye(again, lets wait a few frames), it is north of the track depicted here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 952mb cat 3 at 120 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on the 126 hour map, I'm guessing the 12Z Euro will show a CHS hit. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 heading due north at 132 towards CHS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point. Strongly agree.....brush n of Hisp. seem to be in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 at 138, it looks to make landfall just north of savannah/lower sc coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHS landfall at 138 is what I have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Lanfall between 6z and 12z Sat near Charleston moving slightly west of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quick reminder: Euro pressures often verified way too low last season, especially near these latitudes. I'd recommend treating Euro pressures, when they are much lower than the model consensus, as the strong end of what may happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 wow, euro is looking insane. itll be interesting to see if the models remain consistent over the next few days, although i am getting a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That euro track seems very similar to this perhaps less interaction with Hispanola http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1988/CHRIS/track.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The SV map has a 976mb center near Lumberton NC at 156 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Cough, cough-Hugo-cough. Ok, tag me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 946 at 144 was probably lower at 132-138 at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Again before anyone cries fish, the way the ridging builds back might even allow for a slight westward component of motion as the system literally crawls up the coastline. Needless to say, this is a pretty interesting solution. Verbatim, this is a rather significant landfall for GA/SC coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 one more look at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Brisk winds for DC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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