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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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999mb drop, very nice after all the 1005-1007mb we have been seeing. Drop was with 3kt winds, so both pressure and location should be the best we will get in terms of accuracy. It is worth noting that 5kt was the max going down, indicating a well stacked system from 850mb to the surface at least.

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the first like 3 passes they missed the center, and on the last pass they got it.

I wouldn't go that far, but with the numerous observations this morning of lower pressures than the official NHC (1002mb at St. Kitts for one) it does appear that the pressure was substantially lower in the MLC, and now that the 2 have become more aligned the LLC pressure has dropped significantly.

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Really? Wasn't the last advisory 1006mb?

It does look like it's really getting it's act together now, though, since the LLC and MLC are aligning.

I could be wrong but we aren't getting pressure data from the plane just the vortex messages....

someone posted that the pressure in one of the islands was 1002 MB while the "center" south of there was 1006 still

perhaps the pressure was always lower further north, but until now the LLC wind center was south of this area so all we were seeing were the 1005-1007 readings

now when they relocated the low level wind center it is also where lowest pressure center is, so we now have that data in the vortex messages

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GFS run by run U.S. hit projection history since Mon 6z:

Mon: ILM, LA, Davidish

Tue: Tampa, Pensacola, S FL to MS, Davidish

Wed: FL Pan., S FL, S SC, WPB to ILM

Thu: Ft. Myers, FL Big Bend, Sarasota, Galveston

Fri: MS, FL Big Bend, Panama City, Apalachicola

Sat: S FL, S FL, S FL, S FL

Sun: WPB, WPB, S SC

Note what I bolded in the Wed. line, the 12Z and 18Z runs of Wed. These represented quite an eastward shift at the time from ther prior exclusive FL hits. Yet, they were then followed by eight Gulf tracks in a row! So, the question this time is whether or not the eastward shift is going to hold. Recent Irene center movements along with us now being only about 5-6 days from a potential hit (vs. still 10 days away as of those two Wed. runs) tell me this new eastern shift has a good bit better chance to hold up vs. that Wed. eastward shift. We'll see.

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SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.5N 63.7W

ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX

ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

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I dont think they have been really hitting the true center with the prior drops.

A hit on Puerto Rico cant be ruled out at this point. At the very least they will get in the strong wind field on the NE side of the storm

I agree and have family set to leave this evening. been watching this like a hawk for them.

JUA_loop.gif

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My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point.

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My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more northwesterly drift develop briefly between the troughs, pulling it closer to GA. These are the kinds of storms Josh hates to chase... the kind that almost parallel the coast, so a small deviation in track makes a huge difference for the point of landfall.

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Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more northwesterly drift develop briefly between the troughs, pulling it closer to GA. These are the kinds of storms Josh hates to chase... the kind that almost parallel the coast, so a small deviation in track makes a huge difference for the point of landfall.

Where the storm will form is soo yesterday.

GFS vs Canadian 12z actually has more to do with the handleing of the great lakes troff at 96hrs. The GGEM is more amped. There's your track deviation.

However north movement early on especially will also make a big difference if the GFS is correct with the troff. If the GGEM is correct, it's OTS no matter what.

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The GFS (and now the ECWMF) are advertising a Jeanne type of track over Hispaniola... and that could still be very detrimental for a cyclone. Its fun to watch though because the cyclone initially tries to go NW into the weakness but then gets pulled back to the west to the frictional effects, essentially walking the northern perimeter of the island.

For some fun history, lets see what Irene looks like in another 36 hours, it might be reasonably close to this. It is worth mentioning Jeanne weakened to a depression before ermging back on the other side, but at least for the first half of its voyage it was staying pretty well intact.

2z9hb1l.jpg

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