dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 999mb drop, very nice after all the 1005-1007mb we have been seeing. Drop was with 3kt winds, so both pressure and location should be the best we will get in terms of accuracy. It is worth noting that 5kt was the max going down, indicating a well stacked system from 850mb to the surface at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 HWRF shows 933mb coming into the lowcountry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Really? Wasn't the last advisory 1006mb? It does look like it's really getting it's act together now, though, since the LLC and MLC are aligning. the first like 3 passes they missed the center, and on the last pass they got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 dropsonde confirms the 999 mb pressure. perfect drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 999 mb? was not expecting that low. I dont think they have been really hitting the true center with the prior drops. A hit on Puerto Rico cant be ruled out at this point. At the very least they will get in the strong wind field on the NE side of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 the first like 3 passes they missed the center, and on the last pass they got it. I wouldn't go that far, but with the numerous observations this morning of lower pressures than the official NHC (1002mb at St. Kitts for one) it does appear that the pressure was substantially lower in the MLC, and now that the 2 have become more aligned the LLC pressure has dropped significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Really? Wasn't the last advisory 1006mb? It does look like it's really getting it's act together now, though, since the LLC and MLC are aligning. I could be wrong but we aren't getting pressure data from the plane just the vortex messages.... someone posted that the pressure in one of the islands was 1002 MB while the "center" south of there was 1006 still perhaps the pressure was always lower further north, but until now the LLC wind center was south of this area so all we were seeing were the 1005-1007 readings now when they relocated the low level wind center it is also where lowest pressure center is, so we now have that data in the vortex messages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS run by run U.S. hit projection history since Mon 6z: Mon: ILM, LA, Davidish Tue: Tampa, Pensacola, S FL to MS, Davidish Wed: FL Pan., S FL, S SC, WPB to ILM Thu: Ft. Myers, FL Big Bend, Sarasota, Galveston Fri: MS, FL Big Bend, Panama City, Apalachicola Sat: S FL, S FL, S FL, S FL Sun: WPB, WPB, S SC Note what I bolded in the Wed. line, the 12Z and 18Z runs of Wed. These represented quite an eastward shift at the time from ther prior exclusive FL hits. Yet, they were then followed by eight Gulf tracks in a row! So, the question this time is whether or not the eastward shift is going to hold. Recent Irene center movements along with us now being only about 5-6 days from a potential hit (vs. still 10 days away as of those two Wed. runs) tell me this new eastern shift has a good bit better chance to hold up vs. that Wed. eastward shift. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 63.7W ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...ESE OF ST CROIX ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I dont think they have been really hitting the true center with the prior drops. A hit on Puerto Rico cant be ruled out at this point. At the very least they will get in the strong wind field on the NE side of the storm I agree and have family set to leave this evening. been watching this like a hawk for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 New center fix actually pretty close to where the GFS had the mid level center Edit: Give it until 00z it should be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hmm,. the wife and I are supposed to go to Charleston Thursday through Sunday for our 10 year anniversary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 My take on the models this morning and the latest recon and sat: the fact that the system is continuing to consolidate to the north would tend to mean that a miss to the N of Hispaniola is possible (although a movement right across the island is still quite possible too), and a movement N of Cuba is probably now likely. All of the models (except the UK) seem to be showing a track in the general direction of S FL/NW Bahamas and that seems reasonable given the synoptic evolution. I still think there are a lot of questions beyond that though. As I mentioned yesterday, I have seen several incidents where the models have continue to move a TC N after the trough has pulled out and the ridge is rebuilding, and in reality the system can stall or even start moving back more to the W/NW depending on the strength of the new ridge. With the westerlies pulled off so far to the N, I think that is something that needs to watched closely for the period after the system makes it up to the latitude of S FL. A few people have mentioned the possibility of a complete US miss, and that's not impossible if the system were to stall for a while and then get picked up by a new trough with the orientation to move it NE. However, the overall mean pattern this would seem pretty unlikely at this point. Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more northwesterly drift develop briefly between the troughs, pulling it closer to GA. These are the kinds of storms Josh hates to chase... the kind that almost parallel the coast, so a small deviation in track makes a huge difference for the point of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hmm,. the wife and I are supposed to go to Charleston Thursday through Sunday for our 10 year anniversary. Congratulations! Not just on the anniversary. Take a big ice chest. Park your car above ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow this thing is really hauling azz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Out to 90, GFDL hits the trifecta....bisects PR, DR/Haiti, and Cuba... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised to see a more northwesterly drift develop briefly between the troughs, pulling it closer to GA. These are the kinds of storms Josh hates to chase... the kind that almost parallel the coast, so a small deviation in track makes a huge difference for the point of landfall. Where the storm will form is soo yesterday. GFS vs Canadian 12z actually has more to do with the handleing of the great lakes troff at 96hrs. The GGEM is more amped. There's your track deviation. However north movement early on especially will also make a big difference if the GFS is correct with the troff. If the GGEM is correct, it's OTS no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Out to 90, GFDL hits the trifecta....bisects PR, DR/Haiti, and Cuba... Yep. Hard to imagine there would be much left if it takes that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hmm,. the wife and I are supposed to go to Charleston Thursday through Sunday for our 10 year anniversary. Come eat at Hymans, I'll set you up with our hurricane special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Congratulations! Not just on the anniversary. Take a big ice chest. Park your car above ground. Thanks! We are staying right on the battery so that might be challenging to find! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro goes north of hispanola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Come eat at Hymans, I'll set you up with our hurricane special. If it includes shrimp count me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Out to 90, GFDL hits the trifecta....bisects PR, DR/Haiti, and Cuba... The GFDL has been a west outlier for this storm, this entire time... look at what the 18z GFDL did with Irene yesterday... it brought Irene through the Yucatan channel... so quite a shift E by the GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro goes north of hispanola. Shift from 00z's depiction of a track along the s. coast of DR/Haiti.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro goes north of hispanola. Looks to skirt right along the north coast. At 60 hours it is north of the 72 hour position from the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Out to 90, GFDL hits the trifecta....bisects PR, DR/Haiti, and Cuba... Yep. Hard to imagine there would be much left if it takes that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The GFS (and now the ECWMF) are advertising a Jeanne type of track over Hispaniola... and that could still be very detrimental for a cyclone. Its fun to watch though because the cyclone initially tries to go NW into the weakness but then gets pulled back to the west to the frictional effects, essentially walking the northern perimeter of the island. For some fun history, lets see what Irene looks like in another 36 hours, it might be reasonably close to this. It is worth mentioning Jeanne weakened to a depression before ermging back on the other side, but at least for the first half of its voyage it was staying pretty well intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro at 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Per Plymouth site, E end of Cuba at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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