MarkSC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12Z NOGAPS is nearly identical to GFS. We are starting to get pretty good consistency. Now watch Euro show a panhandle hit lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 No real calm seen there (so missed the center to the west, unless it's an effect of the elongated center), but North East to North West wind shift just north of 17.3N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The MLC has been pulling the LLC with it since it has developed and that is now closer to 17.31-17.4 north. I'd expect that the system will take another jump to near 17.4 within the next few hours....I'm thinking that southwestern Puerto Rico should be very close to a landfall and then a track across the northern part of the DR. http://weather.unisy...926/1/track.gif http://weather.unisy...928/4/track.gif If it misses the DR/Hati of course I expect the high to the north to rebuild southwestward and push the cyclone toward the florida coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS ensemble mean takes it into Wilmington....wide right shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z CMC is really far east. Almost misses Hispaniola and doesn't get close to Florida, then hits the Outer Banks and approaches SNE at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS ensemble mean takes it into Wilmington....wide right shift. Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS ensemble mean takes it into Wilmington....wide right shift. Remains to be seen whether or not this run has overcompensated, but I would be shocked if the overall conscensus did not continue this trend....great news, if so. Gotta be careful to not read too much into any one soloution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 12z CMC is really far east. Almost misses Hispaniola and doesn't get close to Florida, then hits the Outer Banks and approaches SNE at 144. wow. A complete U.S. miss is not out of the question. Some GFS ensembles showed that at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like the 850mb center based on Recon is roughly 17.4N 63.5W. Another north jump from earlier, which isn't surprising as the previous fix saw SSW winds for a while north of their center fix. Roughly 0.4 west and 0.5 north from their previous fix. 165430 1717N 06339W 8433 01501 //// +188 //// 312026 027 034 004 05 165500 1716N 06337W 8428 01505 //// +192 //// 298028 030 031 001 05 165530 1716N 06335W 8427 01503 //// +204 //// 276028 029 027 003 05 165600 1717N 06333W 8428 01501 //// +202 //// 254028 029 031 002 01 165630 1717N 06332W 8425 01503 //// +201 //// 242029 030 031 001 05 165700 1718N 06330W 8431 01492 //// +197 //// 231028 030 /// /// 05 165730 1720N 06330W 8430 01489 //// +198 //// 225018 020 027 002 05 165800 1722N 06331W 8426 01489 //// +205 //// 213011 014 024 000 05 165830 1722N 06332W 8437 01475 //// +204 //// 122003 005 023 000 01 165900 1723N 06334W 8429 01481 //// +199 //// 047010 013 024 001 01 165930 1724N 06335W 8430 01485 //// +192 //// 045021 026 031 002 01 170000 1725N 06337W 8430 01488 //// +184 //// 045026 027 /// /// 05 170030 1726N 06336W 8433 01486 //// +185 //// 048026 027 /// /// 05 170100 1725N 06335W 8425 01490 //// +191 //// 045018 022 031 002 05 170130 1724N 06334W 8432 01481 //// +196 //// 036007 010 026 002 05 170200 1723N 06333W 8429 01483 //// +201 //// 240003 007 022 000 05 170230 1722N 06332W 8436 01478 //// +204 //// 224014 017 /// /// 05 170300 1720N 06332W 8320 01598 //// +193 //// 245016 017 /// /// 05 170330 1720N 06334W 8100 01831 //// +179 //// 267017 018 029 001 01 170400 1719N 06335W 8066 01874 //// +174 //// 276021 022 026 001 01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Yea, just hugging means as a default strategy is often ill advised...even during the winter. You have to take it case by case....there are certain times in the winter when the means will be skewed too far east like that....they are often more valuable at longer leads imho...when the value of any single deterministic run is relatively limited. Just my take, though....take it fwiw. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward. Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a 24 hour shift with the GGEM: From E. GOM to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston. That sounds reasonable. I was going to guess that the "median" track was around CHS. The east trend is clearly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston. That is as good a forecast as any right now, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a 24 hour shift with the GGEM: From E. GOM to this: looks nice for EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 latest recon info suggest a new center has formed since the last vortex message more NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 UK is a persistant bugger! Still plants a tap root into the GOM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a 24 hour shift with the GGEM: From E. GOM to this: You mean to tell me models stink at forecasting the track of a TC before it even forms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 You mean to tell me models stink at forecasting the track of a TC before it even forms? Yep....and some mets stink too at that time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a shift NW per recon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 HWRF east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Recon looks to be getting as much info as they can for the moment, they have been at 850mb, but since then went up to 800mb, and going now below 900mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 HWRF nearly identical to GFS track but crazy strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:27Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 17 A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 17:02:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 63°33'W (17.3833N 63.55W) B. Center Fix Location: 180 miles (289 km) to the ESE (113°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 40kts (From the NNE at ~ 46.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:44:20Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (194°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 HWRF nearly identical to GFS track but crazy strong. Could I have the link to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward. The op GFS and op Euro have been on the eastern side of the ensemble envelope through the life of this storm most runs, primarily I think, because the operational run will usually be deeper than the individual members thanks to higher resolution, thus the deeper the storm the more influenced by the upper flow it will be. WIth that said, there has certainly been a big shift in the last 12-18 hours of model runs. However, with center reformation continuing more tricks may lie ahead. not to mention IF this goes over Hispaniola all bets are off on what happens afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 999 mb? was not expecting that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg) Really? Wasn't the last advisory 1006mb? It does look like it's really getting it's act together now, though, since the LLC and MLC are aligning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is the windhield wiping done with this latest swipe to the right or does anyone think another west shift is in the cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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