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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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The MLC has been pulling the LLC with it since it has developed and that is now closer to 17.31-17.4 north. I'd expect that the system will take another jump to near 17.4 within the next few hours....I'm thinking that southwestern Puerto Rico should be very close to a landfall and then a track across the northern part of the DR.

http://weather.unisy...926/1/track.gif

http://weather.unisy...928/4/track.gif

If it misses the DR/Hati of course

I expect the high to the north to rebuild southwestward and push the cyclone toward the florida coast.

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GFS ensemble mean takes it into Wilmington....wide right shift.

Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward.

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Looks like the 850mb center based on Recon is roughly 17.4N 63.5W. Another north jump from earlier, which isn't surprising as the previous fix saw SSW winds for a while north of their center fix. Roughly 0.4 west and 0.5 north from their previous fix.

165430 1717N 06339W 8433 01501 //// +188 //// 312026 027 034 004 05
165500 1716N 06337W 8428 01505 //// +192 //// 298028 030 031 001 05
165530 1716N 06335W 8427 01503 //// +204 //// 276028 029 027 003 05
165600 1717N 06333W 8428 01501 //// +202 //// 254028 029 031 002 01
165630 1717N 06332W 8425 01503 //// +201 //// 242029 030 031 001 05
165700 1718N 06330W 8431 01492 //// +197 //// 231028 030 /// /// 05
165730 1720N 06330W 8430 01489 //// +198 //// 225018 020 027 002 05
165800 1722N 06331W 8426 01489 //// +205 //// 213011 014 024 000 05
165830 1722N 06332W 8437 01475 //// +204 //// 122003 005 023 000 01
165900 1723N 06334W 8429 01481 //// +199 //// 047010 013 024 001 01
165930 1724N 06335W 8430 01485 //// +192 //// 045021 026 031 002 01
170000 1725N 06337W 8430 01488 //// +184 //// 045026 027 /// /// 05
170030 1726N 06336W 8433 01486 //// +185 //// 048026 027 /// /// 05
170100 1725N 06335W 8425 01490 //// +191 //// 045018 022 031 002 05
170130 1724N 06334W 8432 01481 //// +196 //// 036007 010 026 002 05
170200 1723N 06333W 8429 01483 //// +201 //// 240003 007 022 000 05
170230 1722N 06332W 8436 01478 //// +204 //// 224014 017 /// /// 05
170300 1720N 06332W 8320 01598 //// +193 //// 245016 017 /// /// 05
170330 1720N 06334W 8100 01831 //// +179 //// 267017 018 029 001 01
170400 1719N 06335W 8066 01874 //// +174 //// 276021 022 026 001 01

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Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend.

Yea, just hugging means as a default strategy is often ill advised...even during the winter. You have to take it case by case....there are certain times in the winter when the means will be skewed too far east like that....they are often more valuable at longer leads imho...when the value of any single deterministic run is relatively limited.

Just my take, though....take it fwiw. lol

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Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward.

Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston.

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Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston.

That sounds reasonable. I was going to guess that the "median" track was around CHS. The east trend is clearly there.

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Individual ensemble members spread from about a St. Augustine landfall to Cape Lookout, NC, maybe even Hatteras. The cluster is in line with the op and shows GA/SC in most instances. So the true "mean" is probably between Myrtle Beach and Charleston.

That is as good a forecast as any right now, imo.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 17:27Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 17:02:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°23'N 63°33'W (17.3833N 63.55W)

B. Center Fix Location: 180 miles (289 km) to the ESE (113°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,412m (4,633ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the WSW (251°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 33° at 40kts (From the NNE at ~ 46.0mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 999mb (29.50 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,530m (5,020ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,519m (4,984ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 15:44:20Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the SSW (194°) from the flight level center

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Based on learning something from a very knowledgeable poster yesterday, using the ensemble MEAN is often very deceiving because the runs that are offshore will have much lower pressure and can easily bias the mean too far offshore. It would be better to look at individual runs and count them for various areas. However, I think it is safe to say there has been a bit of a eastward trend. Then again, we saw a similar eastward trend on two of Wed.'s runs only to have them come back to where they had been immediately afterward.

The op GFS and op Euro have been on the eastern side of the ensemble envelope through the life of this storm most runs, primarily I think, because the operational run will usually be deeper than the individual members thanks to higher resolution, thus the deeper the storm the more influenced by the upper flow it will be.

WIth that said, there has certainly been a big shift in the last 12-18 hours of model runs. However, with center reformation continuing more tricks may lie ahead. not to mention IF this goes over Hispaniola all bets are off on what happens afterward.

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