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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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How are the winds?

along the coast 40-50 mph plus higher gusts per the model BUT take it with a huge grain of salt..farther inland track is going to reduce the wind factor quite a bit.

Wind will be the issue along the coast and through LI if the model verifies verbatim.

150 kt for NYC; 130 kt for Boston.

lolz
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pre/left-of-track heavy rainfall event...gonna suck from DC north through Harrisburg and Williamsport and Syracuse if this track holds. Still a soaking for 95 but axis of heaviest soak is a bit west of the cities.

I wouldn't put too much weight into that just yet...I mean look at the GFS before landfall...how many Atlantic tropical cyclones have you seen where the west side of the storm was the strongest?

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This storm COULD be a major coup for the GFS. It had a David-like track a couple of times a week or so ago when I mocked it. I would still mock it as unlikely except it now has support from the other models and we are inside of 7 days instead of 14.

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I wouldn't put too much weight into that just yet...I mean look at the GFS before landfall...how many Atlantic tropical cyclones have you seen where the west side of the storm was the strongest?

He's talking about the rainfall post-landfall. Floyd was a killer example of NW-side heavy rains. We've had others that do the same thing, especially once they start interacting with a trough.

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I wouldn't put too much weight into that just yet...I mean look at the GFS before landfall...how many Atlantic tropical cyclones have you seen where the west side of the storm was the strongest?

it isn't about "strongest" but where rain sets up -- there's a lot of factors that will play into where the heaviest rains...east winds blowing into the Apps and uplift squeezing out moisture...there's a stalled out front that it is progging to be in Virginia on Saturday that will act as a conduit for moisture as well. The GFS is factoring those things into the equation...as it should...

You shouldn't look at the GFS QPF output as to see what side is "strongest" before landfall anyways...it's about reading in what is lying ahead of the storm once it makes landfall.

Winds could be 10-15 mph west of the storm center but the worst inland damage could very well be on the western side from flooding.

Given the slow movement of the storm inland, if the GFS is right, the wind factor inland is going to be minimal north of Charlotte inland...might be gusty at the coast in NY, NJ, and the Mid Atlantic but that's dependent on the track and how fast it moves once inland.

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I wouldn't get too caught up in the models just yet, folks. There may well be some big changes once we get that upper air data...

NOUS42 KNHC 211500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 21 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUGUST 2011
        TCPOD NUMBER.....11-082

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. TROPICAL STORM IRENE
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71     FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
      A. 22/12Z,18Z             A. 23/00Z
      B. AFXXX 0409A IRENE      B. AFXXX 0509A IRENE
      C. 21/1045Z               C. 22/1730Z
      D. 18.2N 68.2W            F. 24,000 TO 33,000 FT
      E. 21/1130Z TO 21/18Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT       FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 72
                                A. 23/00Z,06Z
      FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 49   B. AFXXX 0709A IRENE
      A. 23/00Z                 C. 22/2315Z
      B. NOAA9 0609A IRENE      D. 18.2N 70.9W
      C. 22/1730Z               E. 22/2330Z TO 23/06Z
      F. 41,000 45,000 FT       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

      FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49
      A. 23/12Z
      B. NOAA9 0809A IRENE
      C. 23/0530Z
      D. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

   2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES, 2 MORE
      G-IV MISSIONS, P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS BEGINNING AT 23/20Z.

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Irene moves about 30 miles from 132-144. Pretty ugly for SC/GA if this verifies.

PRE band setting up to the north through 147 into VA.

PRE = predecessor rain event.

So Irene doesn't really get picked up by the trough, but rather rounds the eroded western side of Atlantic ridge and then creeps NNW as the trough lifts out and ridging builds north of her. A slow WNW to NW track prior to landfall somewhere in Florida as far north as S Carolina is possible IMAO. Not exactly a classic recurvature scenario it would seem.

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I wouldn't put too much weight into that just yet...I mean look at the GFS before landfall...how many Atlantic tropical cyclones have you seen where the west side of the storm was the strongest?

The heaviest rain usually shifts to the northwest quad of the storm after landfall. And careful with the word "strongest" ... you're looking at QPF

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I wouldn't put too much weight into that just yet...I mean look at the GFS before landfall...how many Atlantic tropical cyclones have you seen where the west side of the storm was the strongest?

Lots of storms have had the heaviest rainfall to the west of the track. Here's a training package discussing such storms and storms that have the bulk of their precip on the east side.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/mcs_web_test_test_files/Page1689.htm

That said. Like Steve mentioned, I wouldn't yet get too tied up about the model runs. The next run is liable to be different.

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This storm COULD be a major coup for the GFS. It had a David-like track a couple of times a week or so ago when I mocked it. I would still mock it as unlikely except it now has support from the other models and we are inside of 7 days instead of 14.

26 straight runs showing a US landfall going back to last Mon's 6Z run! However the 1st two runs did show a hit on 8/30 (15 days out) (ILM and then LA). More impressively, 22 of the 26 have been within ~100 miles of S FL around 8/26!

The 12Z run hits Beaufort, SC. Taken literally, this is a major "whew" for GA as regards devastating storm surge, but really bad news for Beaufort to CHS. There hasn't been a GFS modeled U.S. hit this far north/east since Wed.

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Long way to go with this one. Unfortunately, the center is everything at this point...where it ends up centered and where the synoptics allow it to go. We're still 5 days out on landfall and the GFS is notorious for having issues of all sorts. The curious thing with this is the angle with which it will be coming north...it's so sharp that it really keeps everyone from MIA to ILM at risk. And unfortunately, that center location is the key because of strengthening potential. But this is definitely looking like a multi-pronged scenario: landfall/wind/surge impacts, potential for stall/flooding impacts from FL-NC and then potential for flooding VA-New England. I'd be really concerned about the latter given recent rains. But we've still got many options at play here.

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26 straight runs showing a US landfall going back to last Mon's 6Z run! The 1st two runs showed a hit on 8/30 (15 days out), however. More impressively, 22 of the 26 have been within 100 miles of FL!

The 12Z run hits Beaufort, SC. Taken literally, this is a major "whew" for GA as regards devastating storm surge, but really bad news for Beaufort to CHS. There hasn't been a U.S. hit this far north/east since Wed.

The Beaufort area would be wiped out with a decent surge.....I was there on Paris island 10 years ago and it's one giant swamp right on the ocean.

That would wreak some major havoc with the USMC's training schedule lol

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