Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene's satellite appearance continues to improve today. Unlike some of the earlier storms this season, she looks like she's actually organizing quite well, and convection is now starting to work its way into the center. It looks to me like we are still on track to actually have our first 'cane of the season before Irene reaches Puerto Rico or Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Shifting north, looking like it could end up being a major hype GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS misses Hispaniola to the north at 60 hrs.. ruh roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow, this GFS run is way north. The center completely misses Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Jim cantore-"Third, AT THIS TIME, I think areas west of New Orleans, LA are unlikely to have impacts w/#Irene given current steering & trough strength." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS misses Hispaniola to the north at 60 hrs.. ruh roh It goes right over the island between 36-48. The trend is definitely not favoring the southern track but it'll probably deal with HIspaniola in some fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 84 hrs MISSES CUBA and bombs off the coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 After 108 just north of Great Abaco moving NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It has a shot a missing the east coast altogether now. Hasn't been discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It goes right over the island between 36-48. The trend is definitely not favoring the southern track but it'll probably deal with HIspaniola in some fashion. Perhaps I should have not said "misses"... but it just skirts the northern coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 96 hours - strengthening in the Bahamas: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS has a Floyd-esque track so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Jim cantore-"Third, AT THIS TIME, I think areas west of New Orleans, LA are unlikely to have impacts w/#Irene given current steering & trough strength." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 extrap on the gfs through 114 is taking this towards the GA/SC border unless there's a pull back to the west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS has a Floyd-esque track so far.. If I remember correctly, didn't that cost millions of dollars just in the evac alone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FWIW, the dry slot is not the center. The center is a little bit SW of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 extrap on the gfs through 114 is taking this towards the GA/SC border unless there's a pull back to the west... You're probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS bringing this in just above GA/SC border at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Floyd track Irene should be more west though I'd imagine?http://www.google.com/m/search?site=images&source=mog&hl=en&gl=us&client=safari&q=hurricane%20floyd&sa=N#i=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene moves about 30 miles from 132-144. Pretty ugly for SC/GA if this verifies. PRE band setting up to the north through 147 into VA. PRE = predecessor rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Savana river landfall sometime near 132hrs. Edit:138hrs I mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Kind of scary to have a global model showing this much definition. The eye is strikingly well-defined. If Irene were to take the path the GFS shows, it's hard to see why this couldn't be a major hurricane at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene moves about 30 miles from 132-144. Pretty ugly for SC/GA if this verifies. PRE band setting up to the north through 147 into VA. PRE = predecessor rain event. I'm on my phone so can't really view models but does it make an i95 track or more west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Can someone explain why the GFS and GFDL are varying as much as they are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm on my phone so can't really view models but does it make an i95 track or more west? Thru 165 and it's still in NC but it's starting to turn NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Can someone explain why the GFS and GFDL are varying as much as they are? the center relocated to the north quite a bit, i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Thru 165 and it's still in NC but it's starting to turn NNE. Hmm might be similar to floyds track per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 GFS has a Floyd-esque track so far.. no it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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