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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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I hate to change my original forecast so much so soon, but obviously even my "northerly shift" early on wasn't northerly enough. With the changes in land interactions, and slightly different thoughts on the general pattern, that'll make a pretty big change in the track further out.

post-300-0-99996100-1313936773.png

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pressure up a notch

URNT12 KNHC 211426

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 21/14:00:00Z

B. 16 deg 55 min N

062 deg 48 min W

C. 850 mb 1472 m

D. 46 kt

E. 046 deg 42 nm

F. 123 deg 53 kt

G. 046 deg 80 nm

H. 1007 mb

I. 15 C / 1523 m

J. 17 C / 1524 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 10 nm

P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 08

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z

20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW

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pressure up a notch

URNT12 KNHC 211426

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 21/14:00:00Z

B. 16 deg 55 min N

062 deg 48 min W

C. 850 mb 1472 m

D. 46 kt

E. 046 deg 42 nm

F. 123 deg 53 kt

G. 046 deg 80 nm

H. 1007 mb

I. 15 C / 1523 m

J. 17 C / 1524 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 10 nm

P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 08

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z

20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW

Pressue in St. Kitts is 29.59" or 1002 mb and the center has past them already.

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.1.78857

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Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found?

IMO , amateur at that I definitely think RECON needs to head just NW of st kitts to try to find the center. The last few frames on visible seem to show it possibly relocating NW again.

Maybe around 17.5N , 63W

http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-rgb.html

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A few thoughts from my perspective this morning...sorry if some of it's obvious...just trying to keep my own thoughts coherent...

* The continued redevelopment of the center farther north and the evolution of the synoptic pattern is making is increasingly unlikely this is going to get in the Gulf, or at least any more than the far eastern Gulf.

* The large size of this system and the slow manner in which it is becoming organized makes it increasingly unlikely to me that Irene is going to have an extremely tight inner core by the time it gets to Hispaniola. Based on its current speed and the NHC forecast it will be in the vicinity of the eastern DR in about 24 hours.

* The models know that Hispaniola exists, and are continuing to show potent development after is passes the island. I think that is because of the point above and particularly favorable conditions in the models after passage over Hispaniola. A number of systems have passed across Hispaniola and still went on to become significant hurricanes. To me, the bigger question on how strong Irene ultimately becomes is how much of Cuba does it move over after Hispaniola, and how much water does it move over after after it turns NW/N. If it does what the last couple of runs of the op EC imply and stay primarily off the north shore of Cuba and then just east of FL, it could be quite an intense system.

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* The models know that Hispaniola exists, and are continuing to show potent development after is passes the island. I think that is because of the point above and particularly favorable conditions in the models after passage over Hispaniola. A number of systems have passed across Hispaniola and still went on to become significant hurricanes. To me, the bigger question on how strong Irene ultimately becomes is how much of Cuba does it move over after Hispaniola, and how much water does it move over after after it turns NW/N. If it does what the last couple of runs of the op EC imply and stay primarily off the north shore of Cuba and then just east of FL, it could be quite an intense system.

What would you say the ceiling is for post-GA intensification?

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What would you say the ceiling is for post-GA intensification?

Understanding there's a lot of caveats here - IF it doesn't have a tight inner core that gets blown away by Hisp, IF it stays N of Cuba, IF it moves across the really warm water in the FL straits, and IF the overall environment is as favorable as the models are forecasting, it could become a major hurricane. But that's a LOT of ifs.

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Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found?

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1500 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL

STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM

WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR

THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO

FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST

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http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:26Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 2

Observation Number: 08

A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 14:00:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°55'N 62°48'W (16.9167N 62.8W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (43 km) to the S (190°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 53kts (From the ESE at ~ 61.0mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:34:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW

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Understanding there's a lot of caveats here - IF it doesn't have a tight inner core that gets blown away by Hisp, IF it stays N of Cuba, IF it moves across the really warm water in the FL straits, and IF the overall environment is as favorable as the models are forecasting, it could become a major hurricane. But that's a LOT of ifs.

Thanks, that sounds reasonable. Wait-and-see game as always I guess.

On that note, 11 am advisory out:

LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W

ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

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TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP

CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM

STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE

SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER

AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL

WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45

KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS

ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING

OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS

FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.

AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE

USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE

WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND

EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER

THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL

LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.

THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW

ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN

ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST

TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A

FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT

DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST

OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE

NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS

ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES

IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH

12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH

36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER

96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

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I wish I could have been more a part of the discussion lately, been too busy with work related issues.

Just wanted to add that I think that if Irene remains: somewhat disorganized, continues to exhibit a massive lopsided bias in convection to the northern side, and only the southern flank scrapes Hispanola, then dry downsloping off the mountains should kill the southern CoC with the potential for a center relocation to the north under the deep convection. And, should this occur, a more easterly track would be favored, and the storm should begin to intensify more rapidly than if she made a direct track over land or lost much of the northern convection today.

Still rooting against this thing tho. Supposed to leave town Thu night. :arrowhead:

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I wish I could have been more a part of the discussion lately, been too busy with work related issues.

Just wanted to add that I think that if Irene remains: somewhat disorganized, continues to exhibit a massive lopsided bias in convection to the northern side, and only the southern flank scrapes Hispanola, then dry downsloping off the mountains should kill the southern CoC with the potential for a center relocation to the north under the deep convection. And, should this occur, a more easterly track would be favored, and the storm should begin to intensify more rapidly than if she made a direct track over land or lost much of the northern convection today.

Still rooting against this thing tho. Supposed to leave town Thu night. :arrowhead:

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56kt at flight level with reliable looking 44-48kt SREF.

Center still looks elongated and disorganized at least at 850mb based on flight level obs, with the center looking to be around 16.9N, but just west of due south winds up to about 17.2N

Edit: new vortex puts the center just above 16.9N, but as said, winds are from 180-190 up to 17.2N

000

URNT12 KNHC 211547

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 21/15:28:50Z

B. 16 deg 55 min N

063 deg 08 min W

C. 850 mb 1473 m

D. 34 kt

E. 099 deg 28 nm

F. 189 deg 29 kt

G. 104 deg 32 nm

H. 1007 mb

I. 17 C / 1525 m

J. 17 C / 1523 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 134 / 08

O. 0.02 / 6 nm

P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z

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