phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like Irene is holding its own at this point... a lot of viable SFMR winds that support 45 knots but nothing higher yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 that's all I got http://www.weatherof...bimages=1&clf=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For a supposedly intensifying system, it is quite lopsided. The 5am Discussion mentions how dry air got into the core circulation, and looking at recent IR images, its hard to disagree. Still the visible presentation actually looks fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Question - how will the massive amount of convection on the north side of the system affect the intensity of the center while interacting with Hispaniola? I'd imagine it would make the storm weaken less, but that's just pure speculation. Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I dont see it making any difference really. Much stronger systems have bewn shredded. I think a faster fwd. Speed and a more clipping of hispanola instead of transversing will make the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 After tracking the radar and looking at the obs from Saint Kitts and Nevis, it appears the center is WNW of the islands which would put it 30 miles NE of the NHC track. Clear wind shift out of the south http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TKPK.html Pressure went down to 1002mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I hate to change my original forecast so much so soon, but obviously even my "northerly shift" early on wasn't northerly enough. With the changes in land interactions, and slightly different thoughts on the general pattern, that'll make a pretty big change in the track further out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 pressure up a notch URNT12 KNHC 211426 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 21/14:00:00Z B. 16 deg 55 min N 062 deg 48 min W C. 850 mb 1472 m D. 46 kt E. 046 deg 42 nm F. 123 deg 53 kt G. 046 deg 80 nm H. 1007 mb I. 15 C / 1523 m J. 17 C / 1524 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 10 nm P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 08 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z 20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found? the center is very messy it may be relocating again more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 pressure up a notch URNT12 KNHC 211426 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 21/14:00:00Z B. 16 deg 55 min N 062 deg 48 min W C. 850 mb 1472 m D. 46 kt E. 046 deg 42 nm F. 123 deg 53 kt G. 046 deg 80 nm H. 1007 mb I. 15 C / 1523 m J. 17 C / 1524 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 10 nm P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 08 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z 20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW Pressue in St. Kitts is 29.59" or 1002 mb and the center has past them already.http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=zmw:00000.1.78857 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cypress Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 MIMIC shows center "jumps" really well, I like following it, just wish it had an option to stop motion: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found? IMO , amateur at that I definitely think RECON needs to head just NW of st kitts to try to find the center. The last few frames on visible seem to show it possibly relocating NW again. Maybe around 17.5N , 63W http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-rgb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A few thoughts from my perspective this morning...sorry if some of it's obvious...just trying to keep my own thoughts coherent... * The continued redevelopment of the center farther north and the evolution of the synoptic pattern is making is increasingly unlikely this is going to get in the Gulf, or at least any more than the far eastern Gulf. * The large size of this system and the slow manner in which it is becoming organized makes it increasingly unlikely to me that Irene is going to have an extremely tight inner core by the time it gets to Hispaniola. Based on its current speed and the NHC forecast it will be in the vicinity of the eastern DR in about 24 hours. * The models know that Hispaniola exists, and are continuing to show potent development after is passes the island. I think that is because of the point above and particularly favorable conditions in the models after passage over Hispaniola. A number of systems have passed across Hispaniola and still went on to become significant hurricanes. To me, the bigger question on how strong Irene ultimately becomes is how much of Cuba does it move over after Hispaniola, and how much water does it move over after after it turns NW/N. If it does what the last couple of runs of the op EC imply and stay primarily off the north shore of Cuba and then just east of FL, it could be quite an intense system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 * The models know that Hispaniola exists, and are continuing to show potent development after is passes the island. I think that is because of the point above and particularly favorable conditions in the models after passage over Hispaniola. A number of systems have passed across Hispaniola and still went on to become significant hurricanes. To me, the bigger question on how strong Irene ultimately becomes is how much of Cuba does it move over after Hispaniola, and how much water does it move over after after it turns NW/N. If it does what the last couple of runs of the op EC imply and stay primarily off the north shore of Cuba and then just east of FL, it could be quite an intense system. What would you say the ceiling is for post-GA intensification? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What would you say the ceiling is for post-GA intensification? Understanding there's a lot of caveats here - IF it doesn't have a tight inner core that gets blown away by Hisp, IF it stays N of Cuba, IF it moves across the really warm water in the FL straits, and IF the overall environment is as favorable as the models are forecasting, it could become a major hurricane. But that's a LOT of ifs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is that really the center fix or is that the vortex to the south that recon found? TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1500 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA IS CHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA * THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO ON THE NORTH COAST Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 14:26Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 2 Observation Number: 08 A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 14:00:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°55'N 62°48'W (16.9167N 62.8W) (View map) B. Center Fix Location: 27 miles (43 km) to the S (190°) from Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,472m (4,829ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 46kts (~ 52.9mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 53kts (From the ESE at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 80 nautical miles (92 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft) K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:34:30Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... 20NM L/V CENTER ELONGATED NE TO SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Understanding there's a lot of caveats here - IF it doesn't have a tight inner core that gets blown away by Hisp, IF it stays N of Cuba, IF it moves across the really warm water in the FL straits, and IF the overall environment is as favorable as the models are forecasting, it could become a major hurricane. But that's a LOT of ifs. Thanks, that sounds reasonable. Wait-and-see game as always I guess. On that note, 11 am advisory out: LOCATION...17.0N 63.2W ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It looks like Irene is still dealing with some SAL SW of the storn which is likely inhibiting this side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 21 Location: 17.0°N 63.2°W Max sustained: 50 mph Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 1005 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 TROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM STILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE USUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER THE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 17.0N 63.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.2N 68.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 18.9N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/1200Z 19.6N 73.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/1200Z 21.5N 76.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 25/1200Z 24.0N 79.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like recon found a meso-low or something at 15.8N 63.4W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a bit of members want to miss Cuba after a DR hit, so the consensus has shifted north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I wish I could have been more a part of the discussion lately, been too busy with work related issues. Just wanted to add that I think that if Irene remains: somewhat disorganized, continues to exhibit a massive lopsided bias in convection to the northern side, and only the southern flank scrapes Hispanola, then dry downsloping off the mountains should kill the southern CoC with the potential for a center relocation to the north under the deep convection. And, should this occur, a more easterly track would be favored, and the storm should begin to intensify more rapidly than if she made a direct track over land or lost much of the northern convection today. Still rooting against this thing tho. Supposed to leave town Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Quite a bit of members want to miss Cuba after a DR hit, so the consensus has shifted north some. The BAM suite is very tightly clustered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I usually don't disagree with RECON but the bad center fix will get injected into the models and decrease overall track accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I wish I could have been more a part of the discussion lately, been too busy with work related issues. Just wanted to add that I think that if Irene remains: somewhat disorganized, continues to exhibit a massive lopsided bias in convection to the northern side, and only the southern flank scrapes Hispanola, then dry downsloping off the mountains should kill the southern CoC with the potential for a center relocation to the north under the deep convection. And, should this occur, a more easterly track would be favored, and the storm should begin to intensify more rapidly than if she made a direct track over land or lost much of the northern convection today. Still rooting against this thing tho. Supposed to leave town Thu night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 56kt at flight level with reliable looking 44-48kt SREF. Center still looks elongated and disorganized at least at 850mb based on flight level obs, with the center looking to be around 16.9N, but just west of due south winds up to about 17.2N Edit: new vortex puts the center just above 16.9N, but as said, winds are from 180-190 up to 17.2N 000URNT12 KNHC 211547 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 21/15:28:50Z B. 16 deg 55 min N 063 deg 08 min W C. 850 mb 1473 m D. 34 kt E. 099 deg 28 nm F. 189 deg 29 kt G. 104 deg 32 nm H. 1007 mb I. 17 C / 1525 m J. 17 C / 1523 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 134 / 08 O. 0.02 / 6 nm P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 12 MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 13:34:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 recon missed the center like 3 times, now they're going into the actual center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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