thewxmann Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 16.4 north is the last fix by NHC... it was initiated at 14.9 and the advisories say movement is due west. How is this possible? The new fix is exactly 90 Nautical Miles north of where NHC had it last night and approximately 200 west. That is a WNW movement. If you project that same forward motion, your storm misses hispanola to the north and allowed to "bomb out" like the global models have been warning us of over the last week. Also this should allow the storm to pick up on the trough better. Now I want to apologize for my Piss Poor/ Unresponsible comment. Not Appropriate. But the initital fix north/ south is goonna make a world of difference on where this ends up. You can't exactly extrapolate a Point A from earlier today to a Point B now because between those two points, the center jumped quite a bit north. The storm motion has a much greater overall westerly component than it would seem from connecting dots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The LLC still has a NWerly component to it at the moment, it drifted due west for a time overnight before jumping a bit more to the North in the past hr. http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html Edit: I may be completely wrong here, but it looks like the LLC may be near 17N now. Seems to be taking a temporary jump, moving almost NW in the latest frame. Will probably wobble back down south again though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the trend continues, the center may miss us in St Croix to the north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Some rare landfall options on the table. My morning discussion http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/irene-to-be-a-big-headache-over-the-next-several-days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is it the MLC pulling in the LLC now? Seems like the Due NW trend in the past few frames cannot be explained any other way...could be a sign that it may become more vertically stacked. http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Some rare landfall options on the table. My morning discussion http://www.examiner....xt-several-days Nice discussion, Allan. A really tough intensity forecast with the impending interaction with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 seems like the plane is having problems again..no prressure or dewpoint readings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Some rare landfall options on the table. My morning discussion http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/irene-to-be-a-big-headache-over-the-next-several-days 3rd paragraph.. you put Emily instead of Irene.. just wanted to let you know You might have just cursed the storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 And it IS gonna miss hispanola. That is a bold statement to make when a cyclone is still in the formative stages. I also suggest a bit more reading on your part and understanding of just what processes are considered in an operational flight mission to investigate a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! Carolinas hit? I think so...or fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! Well the System seemsto be at 17.1N and moving WNW/NW, not sure how long it lasts, but is interesting nonetheless. Hard to tell since the core seems to be growing in the latest frame. http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html May just be the LLC re-locating/pulled into the MLC. Me guess is the center wobbles back to more of a due west track for a bit...pure unscientific speculation, just based on its overnight tendancies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Carolinas hit? I think so...or fish? No model shows anything close to a fish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 No model shows anything close to a fish... That makes me more confident that it is a legit possibility...anyway sorry to derail the real-time development/movement chat. edit: to be fair a few gfs ensemble members have shown a fish east of the EC ( as far as the U.S. is concerned) ...I'm guessing the euro ensembles have members similar to that. Those may or may not be taking into account the more northern center fixes, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Now that im livin in delray beach... s.fl this is like my ultimate nor easter. I think the north relocations make this more likely to go over spine of hispanola fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That makes me more confident that it is a legit possibility...anyway sorry to derail the real-time development/movement chat. The MLC has been moving more W than WNW, the LLC has been moving WNW maybe a Bit NW recently, so I find no evidence that says anything about a fish storm, just that the system is becoming more vertically stacked (which may eventually send it more WNWerly but that is beside the point). Doesn't look all that healthy right now, seems to have been some drier air yanked in overnight, but regardless the system seems to be tracking W with a bit of a WNW component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 06Z GFDL still suggesting a Greater Antilles path and RI just N of Cuba through the Straits... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Winds on Barbuda now ESE, gusts have been in the 20-25kt range in the past few hrs so not incredibly bad there. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=bara9 Still waiting for the system to turn more toward the W, circulation center appears due west of the Island at the moment, WNW for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Just shy of 16.8N for the center location, pressure hasn't dropped overnight. However unlike last night, plenty of west winds south of the center, generally in the 20-25kt range. 000 URNT12 KNHC 211228 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 21/12:08:00Z B. 16 deg 46 min N 062 deg 22 min W C. 850 mb 1477 m D. 36 kt E. 304 deg 33 nm F. 043 deg 43 kt G. 307 deg 43 nm H. 1006 mb I. 16 C / 1529 m J. 17 C / 1524 m K. NA / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 08 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 02 MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 11:48:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Still waiting for the system to turn more toward the W, Not sure what you are seeing as it still looks to be on a 280 heading around 17kts or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not sure what you are seeing as it still looks to be on a 280 heading around 17kts or so... I'm just basing it off radar data and the well developed LLC: http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html Just Used google earth to determine the lattitude, was all I had. Please correct me if I'm seeing an illusion. Edit: the 1230 frame shows a westward tug in the LLC, I had not gotten the frame in yet. But the net motion is clearly N of W on this imagery, unless I'm seeing things which is entirely possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Funny 280 is n of due west anyhow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Funny 280 is n of due west anyhow Man that is definitely news to me I was just saying the LLC is wobbling and had been taking a WNWerly route all night based on the Doppler data I was using, I could be wrong, but I think we all know 280 is N of W. Barbuda has had winds ESE for the past 30min to 1hr which coincides fairly well with the banding signature/"Eye-Feature" on the doppler. Again maybe the winds/pressures are different, I had nothing else to verify it with at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Remember Ian's advice, if you want a banter thread with, say, pictures of Sonic the Hedgehog or whatever superimposed on satellite imagery or one liners or completely amateur forecast maps that absolutely don't fit the current conditions, please start a banter/picture/amateur forecast thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Continue discussions here... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24008-tropical-storm-irene-part-two/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Read this before posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I noticed that the caribou afd from this morning mentioned the chance for some heavier rain up the EC in association with moisture from Irene getting entrained up a cold front. Regardless of where this makes landfall, is this going to be a big rainmaker for a large swath of the Atlantic coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The Rapid Scan loop is available if your interested in tracking Irene in real-time. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&numframes=5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For a supposedly intensifying system, it is quite lopsided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Reading the 5am disco on Irene…sounds kinda familiar: THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLELAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLEFARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVEMORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERYFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ISFORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO ISAPPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESECONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING ACATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALLALONG THE FLORIDA COAST. Of course Ernesto ended up being a weak TS at landfall. I know not all snowflakes are alike blah blah blah…but the similarities are striking IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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