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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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16.4 north is the last fix by NHC... it was initiated at 14.9 and the advisories say movement is due west. How is this possible? The new fix is exactly 90 Nautical Miles north of where NHC had it last night and approximately 200 west. That is a WNW movement. If you project that same forward motion, your storm misses hispanola to the north and allowed to "bomb out" like the global models have been warning us of over the last week. Also this should allow the storm to pick up on the trough better.

Now I want to apologize for my Piss Poor/ Unresponsible comment. Not Appropriate. But the initital fix north/ south is goonna make a world of difference on where this ends up.

You can't exactly extrapolate a Point A from earlier today to a Point B now because between those two points, the center jumped quite a bit north. The storm motion has a much greater overall westerly component than it would seem from connecting dots.

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The LLC still has a NWerly component to it at the moment, it drifted due west for a time overnight before jumping a bit more to the North in the past hr.

http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html

201108211115-Mosaique.gif

Edit: I may be completely wrong here, but it looks like the LLC may be near 17N now. Seems to be taking a temporary jump, moving almost NW in the latest frame. Will probably wobble back down south again though.

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And it IS gonna miss hispanola.

That is a bold statement to make when a cyclone is still in the formative stages. I also suggest a bit more reading on your part and understanding of just what processes are considered in an operational flight mission to investigate a storm.

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Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! :arrowhead: Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! :thumbsup:

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Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! :arrowhead: Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! :thumbsup:

Carolinas hit? I think so...or fish?

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Morning everyone! Nice curve ball overnight! :arrowhead: Discussions last night regarding potential center relocation appear to have panned out (and the details still sorting out) but I suspect that with this huge shift, ripping up of initial thoughts from yesterday, by many will commence soon. It's like starting out with a whole new system at this point.... Fun stuff! :thumbsup:

Well the System seemsto be at 17.1N and moving WNW/NW, not sure how long it lasts, but is interesting nonetheless. Hard to tell since the core seems to be growing in the latest frame.

http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html

May just be the LLC re-locating/pulled into the MLC.

201108211200-Mosaique.gif

Me guess is the center wobbles back to more of a due west track for a bit...pure unscientific speculation, just based on its overnight tendancies.

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No model shows anything close to a fish...

That makes me more confident that it is a legit possibility...anyway sorry to derail the real-time development/movement chat.

edit: to be fair a few gfs ensemble members have shown a fish east of the EC ( as far as the U.S. is concerned) ...I'm guessing the euro ensembles have members similar to that. Those may or may not be taking into account the more northern center fixes, too.

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That makes me more confident that it is a legit possibility...anyway sorry to derail the real-time development/movement chat.

The MLC has been moving more W than WNW, the LLC has been moving WNW maybe a Bit NW recently, so I find no evidence that says anything about a fish storm, just that the system is becoming more vertically stacked (which may eventually send it more WNWerly but that is beside the point). Doesn't look all that healthy right now, seems to have been some drier air yanked in overnight, but regardless the system seems to be tracking W with a bit of a WNW component.

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Just shy of 16.8N for the center location, pressure hasn't dropped overnight. However unlike last night, plenty of west winds south of the center, generally in the 20-25kt range.

000

URNT12 KNHC 211228

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 21/12:08:00Z

B. 16 deg 46 min N

062 deg 22 min W

C. 850 mb 1477 m

D. 36 kt

E. 304 deg 33 nm

F. 043 deg 43 kt

G. 307 deg 43 nm

H. 1006 mb

I. 16 C / 1529 m

J. 17 C / 1524 m

K. NA / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 1345 / 08

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF300 0209A IRENE OB 02

MAX FL WIND 43 KT NW QUAD 11:48:00Z

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Not sure what you are seeing as it still looks to be on a 280 heading around 17kts or so...

I'm just basing it off radar data and the well developed LLC:

http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html Just Used google earth to determine the lattitude, was all I had.

Please correct me if I'm seeing an illusion.

Edit: the 1230 frame shows a westward tug in the LLC, I had not gotten the frame in yet. But the net motion is clearly N of W on this imagery, unless I'm seeing things which is entirely possible.

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Funny 280 is n of due west anyhow

Man that is definitely news to me ;) I was just saying the LLC is wobbling and had been taking a WNWerly route all night based on the Doppler data I was using, I could be wrong, but I think we all know 280 is N of W.

Barbuda has had winds ESE for the past 30min to 1hr which coincides fairly well with the banding signature/"Eye-Feature" on the doppler. Again maybe the winds/pressures are different, I had nothing else to verify it with at the time.

201108211230-Mosaique.gif

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Remember Ian's advice, if you want a banter thread with, say, pictures of Sonic the Hedgehog or whatever superimposed on satellite imagery or one liners or completely amateur forecast maps that absolutely don't fit the current conditions, please start a banter/picture/amateur forecast thread.

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I noticed that the caribou afd from this morning mentioned the chance for some heavier rain up the EC in association with moisture from Irene getting entrained up a cold front. Regardless of where this makes landfall, is this going to be a big rainmaker for a large swath of the Atlantic coast?

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Reading the 5am disco on Irene…sounds kinda familiar:

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLELAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLEFARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVEMORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERYFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ISFORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO ISAPPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESECONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING ACATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALLALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
Of course Ernesto ended up being a weak TS at landfall. I know not all snowflakes are alike blah blah blah…but the similarities are striking IMO.
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