A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yes, but is it really randomness or is it just unknown because we/models aren't smart enough to know that far in advance? I think a bit of both-- with more advanced sims we will be able to narrow the goal posts, but there will always be some randomness because on a very basic level energy isn't conserved (quantum mechanics). This effect becames larger the further out in time you're modeling any system. I do agree that we don't have a handle on all the predictable variables yet, and we have a great deal of room to improve and "narrow the cone" but I don't think we can ever eliminate it entirely. And some set ups have inherently more uncertainty than others-- especially those in which the steering currents are weak, in which case chaos/randomness may play a greater role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Do you have the link for this site if available? Much better than what I have been using. http://www.meteo.fr/...nimMOSAIC2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The core of the cyclone should be within TJUA radar range early this afternoon, anything better than that awful radar from Guadeloupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Assume NHC is waiting to see if the Eastward shift is something More sustained/realistic than the constant oscillation in output seen thus far, otherwise It's hard to think it'd be that far west given the shift in the ECMWF, GGEM, & GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Given the gain in latitude overnight and the models continuing to show a strong (or even stronger) ridge to the north of Irene over the next 36 hours I see no way that this thing avoids Hispaniola. In fact Irene may run the length of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Given the gain in latitude overnight and the models continuing to show a strong (or even stronger) ridge to the north of Irene over the next 36 hours I see no way that this thing avoids Hispaniola. In fact Irene may run the length of the island. Pretty much what the 06Z RGEM has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on radar I'd place the "eye" feature near 16.7/61.6...I'd say this system will be found to be at least 55 knots later this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FWIW, 6z GFS is weaker & further N than 00z at 12z. Also not sure how to tell, as the "L" symbol is never at the direct COC, but it seems to have initialized maybe a bit less than 1deg too far S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The core of the cyclone should be within TJUA radar range early this afternoon, anything better than that awful radar from Guadeloupe. `There's also a very good radar at St Maarten run by the Netherlands Antilles dept. of Meteorology (also have a radar at Curacao); unfortunately it's been down for maintainence since yesterday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 6z GFS a notch weaker and heading right for Hispaniola. Edit: Yikes this run is gonna be East it looks like, although there is a Jog westward skirtin the N coast of Cuba. Edit: Slower on this Run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Guadeloupe radar confirms that we are getting a nicely forming eye just to the NW of the island... wonder how close it's going to come to me in St Croix! Conditions here are breezy 15-20mph with on/off t-storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 One thing to keep in mind too, is if the thing remains a bit loose in the middle even these jumps tonight, with a loose cyclone, could still mean a more due W movement today and thus more of a chance it still moves right over Hispanola. and I think this possibility is very, very high right now. Then whatever is left of Irene will have to reorganize from that interaction. But she's still in the organization phase too, so its also not out of the realm of possibility these center wobbles/jumps may continue until her core is well developed. Based on the projected movement, where she's at now, and the upper level pattern forecast by most models to develop down the road I'm going to favor the GA/Upper FL coast right now too, moreso GA. Hard to go against what we are seeing on the models right now. I was afraid I'd be called a wet blanket so I didnt post this, but I completely agree with this assessment. I think the northward reformation actually screwed Irene over because now it will likely run through most of Hispaniola. The good news for hurricane lovers is that the weakness seems to be strong enough to allow Irene to stay away from most of Cuba and the FL Peninsula. While I think a Cat 1 landfall looks likely, this might be able to do more damage than a normal Cat 1. Hispaniola interaction will make Irene even larger than it is now, and if Irene makes landfall in GA, the geography of the coastline will funnel the surge right in there. Also the continental shelf off the coast of GA is wider than it is further north and south, which increases the surge potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Via 6z GFS Ridge over the continental US is stronger, trough is more amplified over the Eastern US, Eastern Portion of Bermuda high is weaker, Storm is East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 clearly beating every N benchmark for a while now... models still assimilating that catch-up...hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ends up lagging the 00z run, a bit east of 00z by maybe 30 miles, but really just makes landfall later, fantastic consistancy from the GFS was not expecting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ends up lagging the 00z run, a bit east of 00z by maybe 30 miles, but really just makes landfall later, fantastic consistancy from the GFS was not expecting that. I don't see a landfall as of hr 126. If so it's a technicality, most of the center is still offshore. Well east of yesterdays runs which brought this mess up the gut of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't see a landfall as of hr 126. If so it's a technicality, most of the center is still offshore. Well east of yesterdays runs which brought this mess up the gut of FL. This run is god-aweful for the GA coast, crawling at what 5mph just off the coast as at least a Cat2? (have my doubts on that being physically possible) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I live in Ohio, Josh...so I'll give my honest non-wishcasting take right now. Given the center relocation, the north of west to potential west-northwest movement, and the eastward model trend Intensity could be very high in the longer ranges, especially if Irene avoids most of Hispaniola. That is the worst case possible track....the entire east coast of FL would be in the front eyewall as it hugs the coast and moves north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Makes landfall in Savannah, sorry GaWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Makes landfall in Savannah, sorry GaWx So long Tybee Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So long Tybee Island. It's one run and means nothing really, but it would be bad for sure if it verified...coastal GA would see about 15 consecutive hours of onshore hurricane force winds before the westward shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Isn't the GA coast one of the rarest places for a direct landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looking at radar and satellite i think we may have a cane soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Isn't the GA coast one of the rarest places for a direct landfall? It is. One problem too is how the coast line curves NE at that point, the funneling action would make the storm surge a killer in that scenario. I need the rain but I really would hate to see it hit Savannah, if you've seen Savannah you know what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Definitely still wobbling, back to a WNW track via satellite after a shift to due west an hr ago. Hispaniola seems to be the only major obstacle, I still feel Irene skirts the Northern end of the Island especially given trends, either that or it runs into the meat of it which could save the GA coast a bit hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Recon now enroute to Irene. NDBC station Irene is approaching. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=bara9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 16.4 north is the last fix by NHC... it was initiated at 14.9 and the advisories say movement is due west. How is this possible? The new fix is exactly 90 Nautical Miles north of where NHC had it last night and approximately 200 west. That is a WNW movement. If you project that same forward motion, your storm misses hispanola to the north and allowed to "bomb out" like the global models have been warning us of over the last week. Also this should allow the storm to pick up on the trough better. Now I want to apologize for my Piss Poor/ Unresponsible comment. Not Appropriate. But the initital fix north/ south is goonna make a world of difference on where this ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 16.4 north is the last fix by NHC... it was initiated at 14.9 and the advisories say movement is due west. How is this possible? The new fix is exactly 90 Nautical Miles north of where NHC had it last night and approximately 200 west. That is a WNW movement. If you project that same forward motion, your storm misses hispanola to the north and allowed to "bomb out" like the global models have been warning us of over the last week. Also this should allow the storm to pick up on the trough better. Now I want to apologize for my Piss Poor/ Unresponsible comment. Not Appropriate. But the initital fix north/ south is goonna make a world of difference on where this ends up. The storm is large & not very "dense" at the moment, so the center may jump around today, it has wobbled all night as I've watched it...I'm sure NHC is waiting until 12z models runs+ Latest recon to make Track Adjustements, the (as said frequently) "Windshield Wiper" tracks in the modeling have been constant lately, so if the 12z model runs continue the Rightward trend in the track I'm sure the NHC will shift the cone right as well. It is a bit too early to discount earlier guidance at this time IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 16.4 north is the last fix by NHC... it was initiated at 14.9 and the advisories say movement is due west. How is this possible? The new fix is exactly 90 Nautical Miles north of where NHC had it last night and approximately 200 west. That is a WNW movement. If you project that same forward motion, your storm misses hispanola to the north and allowed to "bomb out" like the global models have been warning us of over the last week. Also this should allow the storm to pick up on the trough better. Now I want to apologize for my Piss Poor/ Unresponsible comment. Not Appropriate. But the initital fix north/ south is goonna make a world of difference on where this ends up. The center reformed to the north overnight as many of us thought was possible/likely. You can't just extrapolate that motion and get any real value from it. The relocation of the LLC will make a difference with the ultimate track but I wouldn't look at the last 2 fixes and expect the thing to pass north of Puerto Rico lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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