GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 God I hope not man, I have an "admittedly nice" home right on beach at Sea Island GA...this is the worst possible run imaginable, jesus. There is no elevation/protection on the GA islands. In the event that the 0Z Euro were to verify very closely (of course only VERY slight chance this far away), it would easily be the worst storm surge on the LOWER GA coast since at least the 8 foot surge from Dora of 1964. The total effect would possibly be worse than Dora considering Irene's projected size, especially if it happens to come in near high tide. If so, it would be the worse since the 1898 devastating monster that also hit near the GA/FL border. Of course, this is just a "what if?" scenario that is VERY unlikely to happen as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 In the event that the 0Z Euro were to verify very closely (of course only VERY slight chance this far away), it would easily be the worst storm surge on the LOWER GA coast since at least the 8 foot surge from Dora of 1964. The total effect would possibly be worse than Dora considering Irene's projected size, especially if it happens to come in near high tide. If so, it would be the worse since the 1898 devastating monster that also hit near the GA/FL border. Of course, this is just a "what if?" scenario that is VERY unlikely to happen as of now. Lets hope we got the "disaster track" out of the way and that the storm track shifts further north, would put offshore winds in the Area, more likely than a shift south at this time it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 17N? Another decent shift N if so... I noticed that as well, seems to be somewhere near 17N right now moving W/WNW based on Radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Stepping back and looking at the SSD Caribbean loop, not even knowing the center, just a general area from satellite, it looks like Irene probably clears the biggest peaks of Hispaniola to the North and East. Knowing the approximate center from Guadeloupe radar would seem to confirm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Lets hope we got the "disaster track" out of the way and that the storm track shifts further north, would put offshore winds in the Area, more likely than a shift south at this time it seems. I'd strongly prefer a track further south (which I happen to lean toward), not north. If north, I say let it go WELL north as I certainly wouldn't want that mess in my area. I'd much prefer an overland pass from FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 17N? Another decent shift N if so... Yep... mentioned this a few hour ago during the intermediate advisory... looks like another relocation is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here is an updated radar loop, along with a small circle where I believe the center is becoming better established. The circulation the NHC was going with is clearly visible at the beginning of the loop, well east-southeast of Guadeloupe... Though the circulation you circle appears to be becoming better organized, as you mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'd strongly prefer a track further south (which I happen to lean toward), not north. If north, I say let it go WELL north as I certainly wouldn't want that mess in my area. I'd much prefer an overland pass from FL. Well you're like 50 miles north, so of course you can say that ...I'm just north of the FL/GA border. I could be all wrong as I often am, but I'm leaning towards a SC landfall for various reasons. Wait-- so you guys are hoping for a landfall, just as long as it isn't in your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I live in Ohio, Josh...so I'll give my honest non-wishcasting take right now. Given the center relocation, the north of west to potential west-northwest movement, and the eastward model trend Intensity could be very high in the longer ranges, especially if Irene avoids most of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well you're like 50 miles north, so of course you can say that ...I'm just north of the FL/GA border. I could be all wrong as I often am, but I'm leaning towards a SC landfall for various reasons. The good news from my selfish standpoint and others who don't want a devastating GA direct hit is that it appears that it would most likely be coming in almost parallel fashion (like David did) instead of more perpendicularly like Dora of 1964, Hugo, or 1898. The perp. approach would be much scarier as it would increase the chance of a direct hit whereas a direct hit from a nearly parallel track would be, fortunately, harder to accomplish as there'd be almost no room for "error" as either FL could easily be scraped and take a fair bit out of it or it could hit SC and let GA off fairly lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well, if it is going to hit one of these three states, I hope GA gets it, as poor SC and FL have had more than their fair share of cyclone abuse over the last few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 i'll wait for a final prediction but i'm starting to like the northern FL coast to SE GA area, really seems the gains north are gonna have an effect on the global models once they catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wait-- so you guys are hoping for a landfall, just as long as it isn't in your backyard? Well, the storm surge potential in GA is among the worst. Also, there is a lot of complacency here. Like most sane people, I, of course, wouldn't want a big and potentially devastating mess right in my backyard. Regardless, I'd very likely have to evacuate for anything anticipated to be stronger than a cat. 1 here. I had to evacuate for Floyd in 1999....it was a nightmare! Yes, I'm selfish about this. Regardless, it would merely be putting off the inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well, the storm surge potential in GA is among the worst. Also, there is a lot of complacency here. Like most sane people, I, of course, wouldn't want a big and potentially devastating mess right in my backyard. Regardless, I'd very likely have to evacuate for anything anticipated to be stronger than a cat. 1 here. I had to evacuate for Floyd in 1999....it was a nightmare! Yes, I'm selfish about this. Regardless, it would merely be putting off the inevitable. I'm sure folks in FL and SC are plenty concerned about the surge potentials in their respective towns. Anyhoo, we'll just have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 You're a terrible person, you know that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Back on topic... It will be interesting to see how the models will react to this apparent center relocation. I'm also very curious to see the new position in the 5 am EDT package-- like, where they decide to place it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm sure folks in FL and SC are plenty concerned about the surge potentials in their respective towns. Anyhoo, we'll just have to see what happens. Of course. Our hopes obviously don't matter. It's going to do whatever. Also, GA's been very lucky. Then again, that just increases damage potential as well as complacency and would make an actual hit that much more dangerous, especially due to surge potential and especially if it would be near high tide. (Normal tidal ranges are near 8-9 feet in some cases.) Based on the 1800's. it is inevitable to occur again, which is scarey. Actually, the entire area from about St. Aug. to Beaufort has been very lucky since 1979. Not just GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dude my grandmother and 13 family members live down there Back on topic...It will be interesting to see how the models will react to this apparent center relocation. I'm also very curious to see the 5 am EDT position in the NHC package-- like, where they decide to place it. Don't we all. I think the better data will be applied to the 12z model dataset(?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 TAPA 210800Z 05016KT 9999 -RA BKN016 BKN036 BKN260 26/23 Q1008= TFFR 210800Z 26007KT 240V310 5000 -RA FEW006 SCT010 BKN015 23/23 Q1007 TEMPO 1000 TSRA SCT010CB= Based on the obs in Antigua (17.2N) and Guadeloupe (16.25N) the center looks to be maybe at 16.5 since the former has a slightly higher pressure and a stronger NE wind and the former a light west wind and lower pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dude my grandmother and 13 family members live down there Don't we all. I think the better data will be applied to the 12z model dataset(?) I can understand your sensitivity, but hoping for it to do something obviously doesn't make any difference as far as where it will go. Besides, as was said, many in FL and SC also don't want to get hit. There are grandmothers there, too. I've admitted to also being selfish about not wanting it in my backyard, which is going to be true for many. Actually, it is already predetermined where it will go. We and the models just aren't smart enough to know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can understand your sensitivity, but hoping for it to do something obviously doesn't make any difference as far as where it will go. Besides, as was said, many in FL and SC also don't want to get hit. There are grandmothers there, too. I've admitted to also being selfish about not wanting it in my backyard, which is going to be true for many. Actually, it is already predetermined where it will go. We and the models just aren't smart enough to know yet. That's a very interesting way of looking at it. Never thought of it that way. Imagine how these models will be in twenty years, with so much more data. They'll probably know exactly what's going to happen two weeks in advance. But I digress. The new package is due out at any time. I'm dying to see the new center position and forecast. Usually the NHC won't shift the track too much after just one round of model outputs-- they'll wait another one or two runs to see if the shift is "real" and not just windshield-wiping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's a very interesting way of looking at it. Never thought of it that way. Imagine how these models will be in twenty years, with so much more data. They'll probably know exactly what's going to happen two weeks in advance. A large part of me wouldn't want that because it is the unpredictability of wx and the related discussion of what might happen that makes it so fascinating to me. It isn't just experiencing the wx that is interesting. If the models became that smart, the forecasting element and the wait for an event would become a lot more boring to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's a very interesting way of looking at it. Never thought of it that way. Imagine how these models will be in twenty years, with so much more data. They'll probably know exactly what's going to happen two weeks in advance. But I digress. The new package is due out at any time. I'm dying to see the new center position and forecast. Usually the NHC won't shift the track too much after just one round of model outputs-- they'll wait another one or two runs to see if the shift is "real" and not just windshield-wiping. It's an interesting way of looking at it, but Im not sure I buy it completely because chaos theory and randomness do create "noise" that increases further out in time. I agree that large scale factors can dictate the "limits" of the path, but chaos theory and randomness fine-tune it (sort of like the whole nature vs nurture debate.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I went to see this do a 1926 hurricane right into down town Miami. I'm forecasting a clip of this system on the southwestern Coast of Puerto rico and then slides across the northern coast of the DR/Hati. Thing should explode as it moves towards florida into a major. The 200 mb charts from 24-120 hours looks very favorable and if this doesn't get cut down by the DR you can count on it becoming a impressive system. Lets see if I'm right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A large part of me wouldn't want that because it is the unpredictability of wx and the related discussion of what might happen that makes it so fascinating to me. It isn't just experiencing the wx that is interesting. If the models became that smart, the forecasting element and the wait for an event would become a lot more boring to me. Larry, I'm not sure it will ever be possible though, because there are some random variables that, by their very nature, cannot be accounted for in any computer simulation, no matter how powerful and precise. We have the Uncertainty Principle to deal with (the macroscopic version of it, anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's an interesting way of looking at it, but Im not sure I buy it completely because chaos theory and randomness do create "noise" that increases further out in time. I agree that large scale factors can dictate the "limits" of the path, but chaos theory and randomness fine-tune it (sort of like the whole nature vs nurture debate.) Yes, but is it really randomness or is it just unknown because we/models aren't smart enough to know that far in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 One thing to keep in mind too, is if the thing remains a bit loose in the middle even these jumps tonight, with a loose cyclone, could still mean a more due W movement today and thus more of a chance it still moves right over Hispanola. and I think this possibility is very, very high right now. Then whatever is left of Irene will have to reorganize from that interaction. But she's still in the organization phase too, so its also not out of the realm of possibility these center wobbles/jumps may continue until her core is well developed. Based on the projected movement, where she's at now, and the upper level pattern forecast by most models to develop down the road I'm going to favor the GA/Upper FL coast right now too, moreso GA. Hard to go against what we are seeing on the models right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 0900 UTC SUN AUG 21 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF HAITI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The new position is further N-- at 16.4N. Interestingly, they show a hurricane landfall-- at least 75 kt-- near Miami by Day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Updated Radar... seems like the vortex is taking a western turn now just north of Guadelupe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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