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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here....

Edit- I spoke too soon, it jogs NW and makes landfall near JAX to maybe SAV, that would be very rare.....

Yea the ridge is building back in pretty good beyond 120 hours... At this venture for those rooting for a strong storm it might want to hope Irene can get as far north as possible in the short term in hopes that it could clear Hispaniola. Still would require a pretty significant shift northward from a pretty clustered model consensus to see that.

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Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen....

One could argue that it must happen eventually at any given point and it would be an interesting way to start the hurricane season.

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Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen....

God I hope not man, I have an "admittedly nice" home right on beach at Sea Island GA...this is the worst possible run imaginable, jesus. There is no elevation/protection on the GA islands.

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Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen....

Yep. The last clean landfall in that region (JAX) was Dora 1964. David 1979 brushed the area while moving N from the E coast of FL to a second landfall a little S of Savannah.

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Yea the ridge is building back in pretty good beyond 120 hours... At this venture for those rooting for a strong storm it might be took if it can get as far north as possible in the short term in hopes that it could clear Hispaniola. Still would require a pretty significant shift from a pretty clustered model consensus to see that.

If it really slams Hispaniola that would disrupt it a lot, but the fact the globals and the hurricane models still show significant deepening may mean it can make somewhat of a comeback if it can avoid Cuba and stay over water unto north FL. GA or the Carolinas- a cat 1 or a weak two would not be out of the question.

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Ugh, I'm sensing a crappy Floyd track.

If the ridge builds in like the Euro suggests... it will slow down and turn NW before landfall, not accelerate N and NNE up the coast.

If it really slams Hispaniola that would disrupt it a lot, but the fact the globals and the hurricane models still show significant deepening may mean it can make somewhat of a comeback if it can avoid Cuba and stay over water unto north FL. GA or the Carolinas- a cat 1 or a weak two would not be out of the question.

Yea, I would agree with that, but the monster potential (Cat 3 or greater) only really exists if the storm can miss most of Hispaniola.

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Both Guadeloupe stations as of 2:30am reporting WNW wind of 3 kt. Pressure now equivalent to Martinique's at 1008 mb. Based on the radar, it's hard to imagine the center being anywhere but NE of Guadeloupe, given that it's so close to the radar and sampling the low levels.

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If the ridge builds in like the Euro suggests... it will slow down and turn NW before landfall, not accelerate N and NNE up the coast.

Well, that would be approx. 1,023 times more interesting.

Bottom line:

* If it misses Shredderola and keeps a W component to its motion-- or even bends more W with time-- it could get interesting.

* If it misses Shredderola and slowly turns N and then NNE, zzzzzzzzzzzz (unless Cat-2 brushes with the Outer Banks excite you).

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Both Guadeloupe stations as of 2:30am reporting WNW wind of 3 kt. Pressure now equivalent to Martinique's at 1008 mb. Based on the radar, it's hard to imagine the center being anywhere but NE of Guadeloupe, given that it's so close to the radar and sampling the low levels.

What are your latest, general thoughts Re: track?

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Well, that would be approx. 1,023 times more interesting.

Bottom line:

* If it misses Shredderola and keeps a W component to its motion-- or even bends more W with time-- it could get interesting.

* If it misses Shredderola and slowly turns N and then NNE, zzzzzzzzzzzz (unless Cat-2 brushes with the Outer Banks excite you).

Perhaps a 5 min power yoga session is in order.

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What are your latest, general thoughts Re: track?

Depends on whether the center shift to the north is real or not. Regardless, I still think a Hispaniola hit is likely, but if the northward shift is real, then there's a slight possibility of Irene bypassing it to the north. None of the models really have this northward shift, though, so it's tough to say what the chances of that are.

I do think regardless of what happens with Hispaniola, Irene is likely to strike the U.S. given how far south it initially is and how the ridge builds in.

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Depends on whether the center shift to the north is real or not. Regardless, I still think a Hispaniola hit is likely, but if the northward shift is real, then there's a slight possibility of Irene bypassing it to the north. None of the models really have this northward shift, though, so it's tough to say what the chances of that are.

I do think regardless of what happens with Hispaniola, Irene is likely to strike the U.S. given how far south it initially is and how the ridge builds in.

Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons.

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Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons.

How would wishing for a landfall in FL or GA be selfish ? Even if it does make landfall on the east coast of FL or GA the chances of it having a significant impact on where you live ( Atlanta) is pretty small. Savannah could take a direct hit and we still may not see a drop of rain.

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How would wishing for a landfall in FL or GA be selfish ? Even if it does make landfall on the east coast of FL or GA the chances of it having a significant impact on where you live ( Atlanta) is pretty small.

I want RAIN! A Carolinas track would keep us dry- because this may edge due north or NW after landfall a track over eastern GA would give us at least some rain, as the GFS shows.

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Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons.

Here is an updated radar loop, along with a small circle where I believe the center is becoming better established.

2eqgi1t.gif

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