Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro kinda looking like Emily Deux…track wise. it's going to hit somewhere further up the coast. Looks like a strengthening Cat 1 Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here.... Edit- I spoke too soon, it jogs NW and makes landfall near JAX to maybe SAV, that would be very rare..... Ugh, I'm sensing a crappy Floyd track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That vorticy in the convection appears to be temporary. I wouldn't not be surprised, if the convection is still on the north side of the LLC. This things just hasn't wrapped around the southern side yet. The true center could certainly pop N...just not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 where does it make landfall? Panel just came in... 00z Euro landfall in GA at 150hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I was just watching clips of Hurricane Katrina as it emerged from far southwest Florida, with a seventy-two hour forecast track centered on Apalachicola. Of course, it ended up nowhere near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ugh, I'm sensing a crappy Floyd track. Dissing on Floyd eh, it's one of my favorite hurricanes. Perfect symmetry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So its Euro/HWRF/GFS/CMC vs UKMET/GFDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Panel just came in... 00z Euro landfall in GA at 150hr. Damn I have a beachhouse on the Georgia Seaside...not a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So not Emily Deux. Spoke to soon. Meh. At least there is some decent time over water with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here.... Edit- I spoke too soon, it jogs NW and makes landfall near JAX to maybe SAV, that would be very rare..... Yea the ridge is building back in pretty good beyond 120 hours... At this venture for those rooting for a strong storm it might want to hope Irene can get as far north as possible in the short term in hopes that it could clear Hispaniola. Still would require a pretty significant shift northward from a pretty clustered model consensus to see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't believe it is that far yet? Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen.... One could argue that it must happen eventually at any given point and it would be an interesting way to start the hurricane season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen.... God I hope not man, I have an "admittedly nice" home right on beach at Sea Island GA...this is the worst possible run imaginable, jesus. There is no elevation/protection on the GA islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Landfall near Jacksonville, then NW into GA, that would be a very rare landfall point and would also give us rain. so those two things mean it will probably not happen.... Yep. The last clean landfall in that region (JAX) was Dora 1964. David 1979 brushed the area while moving N from the E coast of FL to a second landfall a little S of Savannah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yea the ridge is building back in pretty good beyond 120 hours... At this venture for those rooting for a strong storm it might be took if it can get as far north as possible in the short term in hopes that it could clear Hispaniola. Still would require a pretty significant shift from a pretty clustered model consensus to see that. If it really slams Hispaniola that would disrupt it a lot, but the fact the globals and the hurricane models still show significant deepening may mean it can make somewhat of a comeback if it can avoid Cuba and stay over water unto north FL. GA or the Carolinas- a cat 1 or a weak two would not be out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well as of 2 AM the Wind at TFFR (Guadeloupe) was still coming out of the east (100°) at 4 kts. Same story elsewhere, sfc winds not really impressive at this point in terms of organization from the looks of this map. (wind direction is indicated like flags, not barbs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Ugh, I'm sensing a crappy Floyd track. If the ridge builds in like the Euro suggests... it will slow down and turn NW before landfall, not accelerate N and NNE up the coast. If it really slams Hispaniola that would disrupt it a lot, but the fact the globals and the hurricane models still show significant deepening may mean it can make somewhat of a comeback if it can avoid Cuba and stay over water unto north FL. GA or the Carolinas- a cat 1 or a weak two would not be out of the question. Yea, I would agree with that, but the monster potential (Cat 3 or greater) only really exists if the storm can miss most of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Irene sitting over Central Georgia at 168 hours...this makes 2 runs in a row for a historic Georgia landfall. I know us Southeast members know the significance of that, but for everyone this would be a big ticket item if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Both Guadeloupe stations as of 2:30am reporting WNW wind of 3 kt. Pressure now equivalent to Martinique's at 1008 mb. Based on the radar, it's hard to imagine the center being anywhere but NE of Guadeloupe, given that it's so close to the radar and sampling the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the ridge builds in like the Euro suggests... it will slow down and turn NW before landfall, not accelerate N and NNE up the coast. Well, that would be approx. 1,023 times more interesting. Bottom line: * If it misses Shredderola and keeps a W component to its motion-- or even bends more W with time-- it could get interesting. * If it misses Shredderola and slowly turns N and then NNE, zzzzzzzzzzzz (unless Cat-2 brushes with the Outer Banks excite you). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Both Guadeloupe stations as of 2:30am reporting WNW wind of 3 kt. Pressure now equivalent to Martinique's at 1008 mb. Based on the radar, it's hard to imagine the center being anywhere but NE of Guadeloupe, given that it's so close to the radar and sampling the low levels. What are your latest, general thoughts Re: track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Track of course, but it could bomb later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Well, that would be approx. 1,023 times more interesting. Bottom line: * If it misses Shredderola and keeps a W component to its motion-- or even bends more W with time-- it could get interesting. * If it misses Shredderola and slowly turns N and then NNE, zzzzzzzzzzzz (unless Cat-2 brushes with the Outer Banks excite you). Perhaps a 5 min power yoga session is in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perhaps a 5 min power yoga session is in order. Don't poke sticks at an injured animal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 What are your latest, general thoughts Re: track? Depends on whether the center shift to the north is real or not. Regardless, I still think a Hispaniola hit is likely, but if the northward shift is real, then there's a slight possibility of Irene bypassing it to the north. None of the models really have this northward shift, though, so it's tough to say what the chances of that are. I do think regardless of what happens with Hispaniola, Irene is likely to strike the U.S. given how far south it initially is and how the ridge builds in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Depends on whether the center shift to the north is real or not. Regardless, I still think a Hispaniola hit is likely, but if the northward shift is real, then there's a slight possibility of Irene bypassing it to the north. None of the models really have this northward shift, though, so it's tough to say what the chances of that are. I do think regardless of what happens with Hispaniola, Irene is likely to strike the U.S. given how far south it initially is and how the ridge builds in. Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons. How would wishing for a landfall in FL or GA be selfish ? Even if it does make landfall on the east coast of FL or GA the chances of it having a significant impact on where you live ( Atlanta) is pretty small. Savannah could take a direct hit and we still may not see a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 How would wishing for a landfall in FL or GA be selfish ? Even if it does make landfall on the east coast of FL or GA the chances of it having a significant impact on where you live ( Atlanta) is pretty small. I want RAIN! A Carolinas track would keep us dry- because this may edge due north or NW after landfall a track over eastern GA would give us at least some rain, as the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Actually, the Euro has it going right over PR, and if the storm is currently near Guadeloupe this looks like it will be pretty close. I agree it will very likely hit the US, I just hope it is FL or GA not the Carolinas, for purely selfish reasons. Here is an updated radar loop, along with a small circle where I believe the center is becoming better established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here is an updated radar loop, along with a small circle where I believe the center is becoming better established. 17N? Another decent shift N if so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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