cmichweather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on recent developments I'd think that east coast of florida to the carolinas might just be the favorites to see some effects from Irene as long as she doesn't bend back west and hit the shredder. Gulf is looking like quite a long shot as of right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 lolz My feeling exactly. I'm just not liking how this is setting up. It's like watching a kid with every advantage life has to offer getting messed up on drugs. Just a pathetic waste. Don't worry Josh, this might just go north of the shredder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Whoa! Its starting to look like it has an eye on the satellite loop! Here is the loop link My link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I usually don't post but that was funny Josh. Kind of surprised with these models as of today; it makes me interested what will happen tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looking at the 06Z surface obs in the Islands, the lowest pressure is way down at Martinique, 1008- Guadeloupe and Antigua 1009 with NE winds. So the spin we are seeing may still be a mid-level center, the surface is still pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Whoa! Its starting to look like it has an eye on the satellite loop! Here is the loop link My link based on the surface obs, I doubt this seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I know its a 48hr pane on Raleighwx'es site, 00z Euro 2nite seems slightly stronger than last nights 00z & todays 12z, but over hispaniola directly vs 12z (48hr panel could not find the cache/saved 00z run from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can see that the East Coast trough is more amplified aswell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The Euro is right down the center of Hispaniola. Also has it quite weak, only 1004 mb at 60 hours....Ouch..... And that might even be too far south at this point... the ECWMF initialized at 00z, and since then it looks like we are gaining nearly 2 degrees in latitude in the last 12 hours. Based on recent developments I'd think that east coast of florida to the carolinas might just be the favorites to see some effects from Irene as long as she doesn't bend back west and hit the shredder. Gulf is looking like quite a long shot as of right now. I'm inclined to agree now with the recent center relocation... thing is most of the models don't even reflect this relocation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 And that might even be too far south at this point... the ECWMF initialized at 00z, and since then it looks like we are gaining nearly 2 degrees in latitude in the last 12 hours. I'm inclined to agree now with the recent center relocation... thing is most of the models don't even reflect this relocation yet. Yeah looking at the lattitude gain I personally threw the 00z Euro out. Seems like a circumstance where the LLC was pulled into the MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 based on the surface obs, I doubt this seriously. yeah definitely NOT an eye, although it did look like one for a frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Just due to the center relocation doesn't mean the ridge will be weaker or the trough more amplified just yet. The fear (or rush for Josh in this case) would be that Irene strengthens quickly and pretty much uninhibited towards the Bahamas, Southeast Florida and a potential landfall. The notion of a turn out or sea or anything like that seems just as unlikely as Texas or the Gulf Coast at this point, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This thing is looking like it's going over all of the islands! This will surely effect the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yeah looking at the lattitude gain I personally threw the 00z Euro out. Seems like a circumstance where the LLC was pulled into the MLC. Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have no recon obs to confirm either scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is it me or is the infared loop of Irene have an eye? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is it me or is the infared loop of Irene have an eye? its just you, there is no eye. ir just happens to make it look that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have no recon obs to confirm either scenario. even if the surface circulation has yet to form, one would have to think that with this deep sustained convection it will likely form soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 even if the surface circulation has yet to form, one would have to think that with this deep sustained convection it will likely form soon. A TC cannot exist without a surface circulation and the NHC classified this as a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here is a better loop and view. and it also show the southeast coast http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 its just you, there is no eye. ir just happens to make it look that way. Yeah, I confirmed, surface obs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have no recon obs to confirm either scenario. You may be right, after all you're a red tagger. If by observational data you mean the Islands, I feel their distance from the center may make it a bit hard to gauge since not all LLC's will have a symmetrical wind field. My distaste to the 00z Euro is simply a speculative move on my part admittedly it might have been better left unsaid. I'm only using past history as a guide re: the -NAO being under-progged in recent yrs upon transition and the often-seen LLC being pulled into the MLC as I speculate is happenning now. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 A TC cannot exist without a surface circulation and the NHC classified this as a tropical storm. i meant it will likely relocate further north under the convection if it hasn't already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Does anyone have the track that HUGO took in 1989 ? Can someone post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have no recon obs to confirm either scenario. It still seems though that most of the rotation per radar is still off to the E. We will likely know more in the next couple of hours if we see some wind shifts from the islands or if we get a timely microwave. That's pretty much all we have before recon goes in at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Does anyone have the track that HUGO took in 1989 ? Can someone post it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here.... Edit- I spoke too soon, it jogs NW and makes landfall near JAX to maybe SAV, that would be very rare..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here.... where does it make landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro a complete whiff for FL- the Carolinas or bust.....no drought relief here.... Here it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 where does it make landfall? I don't believe it is that far yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Euro kinda looking like Emily Deux…track wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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