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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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The Euro is right down the center of Hispaniola. Also has it quite weak, only 1004 mb at 60 hours....Ouch.....

And that might even be too far south at this point... the ECWMF initialized at 00z, and since then it looks like we are gaining nearly 2 degrees in latitude in the last 12 hours.

Based on recent developments I'd think that east coast of florida to the carolinas might just be the favorites to see some effects from Irene as long as she doesn't bend back west and hit the shredder. Gulf is looking like quite a long shot as of right now.

I'm inclined to agree now with the recent center relocation... thing is most of the models don't even reflect this relocation yet.

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And that might even be too far south at this point... the ECWMF initialized at 00z, and since then it looks like we are gaining nearly 2 degrees in latitude in the last 12 hours.

I'm inclined to agree now with the recent center relocation... thing is most of the models don't even reflect this relocation yet.

Yeah looking at the lattitude gain I personally threw the 00z Euro out. Seems like a circumstance where the LLC was pulled into the MLC.

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Just due to the center relocation doesn't mean the ridge will be weaker or the trough more amplified just yet. The fear (or rush for Josh in this case) would be that Irene strengthens quickly and pretty much uninhibited towards the Bahamas, Southeast Florida and a potential landfall. The notion of a turn out or sea or anything like that seems just as unlikely as Texas or the Gulf Coast at this point, IMO.

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Yeah looking at the lattitude gain I personally threw the 00z Euro out. Seems like a circumstance where the LLC was pulled into the MLC.

Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have

no recon obs to confirm either scenario.

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Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have

no recon obs to confirm either scenario.

even if the surface circulation has yet to form, one would have to think that with this deep sustained convection it will likely form soon.

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Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have

no recon obs to confirm either scenario.

You may be right, after all you're a red tagger. If by observational data you mean the Islands, I feel their distance from the center may make it a bit hard to gauge since not all LLC's will have a symmetrical wind field.

My distaste to the 00z Euro is simply a speculative move on my part admittedly it might have been better left unsaid. I'm only using past history as a guide re: the -NAO being under-progged in recent yrs upon transition and the often-seen LLC being pulled into the MLC as I speculate is happenning now. Time will tell.

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Not sure I agree, the surface obs do not suggest much of a surface center near the northern Islands and the Euro does have this going right over PR which is pretty far north. I think the Euro may be fairly close- too bad we have

no recon obs to confirm either scenario.

It still seems though that most of the rotation per radar is still off to the E. We will likely know more in the next couple of hours if we see some wind shifts from the islands or if we get a timely microwave. That's pretty much all we have before recon goes in at 12z.

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