BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I agree it is crap when looking for a LLC. However, it seems that based off of knowing the center was located at 15.3 N by the NHC a few hours ago and seeing the convection expand, I am making an educated guess that the center is now under the convection. Oh I agree It is under the convection, just wasn't sure if you were referring to the obvious MLC or not, the LLC is hard to decipher in there but you can see it moving between WNW/NW being pulled into the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can't see crap on that IR satellite. Maybe some of you can but I'll just have to wait for recon and the visible. Perhaps radar might help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I don't know much but it's been said by knowledgeable tropical folks here that using IR imagery to locate the llvl center can be unreliable. That has been said for sure. It's hard to tell, but when looking at the latest shortwave IR loop, you can see low level clouds on the western side of the nearly exposed center at the beginning of the loop, clearly indicating the center was on the southwestern edge of the convection as recon indicated it was. But now, it is hard to see low level clouds out there, at least raising questions as to where the low level center is and if it may have relocated a little bit to the northeast. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-ir2.html I don't want to jump to conclusions and the 2am NHC intermediate advisory will be out soon, which will hopefully clear things up one thing or another when we find out where they place the center. My guess is it hasn't jumped significantly but is under the convection better than before. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If it takes a N track and plows through Hispaniola and then into S FL, it might not even be a hurricane in FL. If it misses FL and gets further N, it might recover a little, but it's not going to be one for the ages when it comes ashore at some point further N. Just hate to see all this potential wasted. The E shift is a bad thing if you want to see a red-meat hurricane landfall in the USA. If you get off on gutted systems without cores brushing the E Coast, then you should celebrate! Eh I don't mind either way. Based on my inferior knowledge on TCes, systems with larger Circulations seem to do better when crossing the cheese grater. If I wanted a stronger 'cane I'd assume a storm tracking over Hispaniola would be preferrable to tracking over the length of Cuba like Ernesto/Fay? If the track were to cross/brush the Northern end of the Island would that be a different senario than the southern end? Wind flow would be somewhat different between the quadrants of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perhaps radar might help Wow, it's easy to see where the center is and it's not on the southwestern edge of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So now we are focusing on a slam towards Florida as a major hurricane? Good god, whats worse is that it looks like it's moving NNW rather than west, maybe missing land is a possibilty, but then again Florida should still be bracing for a possible sexy monster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If it takes a N track and plows through Hispaniola and then into S FL, it might not even be a hurricane in FL. If it misses FL and gets further N, it might recover a little, but it's not going to be one for the ages when it comes ashore at some point further N. Just hate to see all this potential wasted. The E shift is a bad thing if you want to see a red-meat hurricane landfall in the USA. If you get off on gutted systems without cores brushing the E Coast, then you should celebrate! If this comes out to be true, I guess I'll be monitoring potential severe weather threats rather than the hurricane potential next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So now we are focusing on a slam towards Florida as a major hurricane? Good god, whats worse is that it looks like it's moving NNW rather than west, maybe missing land is a possibilty, but then again Florida should still be bracing for a possible sexy monster.. Come on man....at least seemingly a "sexy monster" hitting S FLA would be unlikely due to land interaction, and missing land would be very hard to do here as well given the synoptical regime in place currently. Do you like hotdogs my man? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 So now we are focusing on a slam towards Florida as a major hurricane? Good god, whats worse is that it looks like it's moving NNW rather than west, maybe missing land is a possibilty, but then again Florida should still be bracing for a possible sexy monster.. NNW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wild model swings have not abated at all. This is so interesting. And FWIW .... So, a whopping eight U.S. GC hits vs. 3 FL hits vs. only one EC (N of FL) hit and none between Jacksonville and Providence. So, 12 U.S. hits vs. 16 U.S. misses. 16 mises: 11 recurves, ~two dissipations, and three MX or C.A. hits. I'm currently thinking either FL or GC hit as opposed to EC hit N of FL or U.S. miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow, it's easy to see where the center is and it's not on the southwestern edge of the convection. Yep, it appears that we have undergone a pretty significant center relocation if radar is correct. We are now well embedded within the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Apparently, the HWRF brings Irene to the east of Melbourne, FL by the end of 0z. Somehow, the minimum pressure is 924. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If it scrapes NORTHERN Hispaniola, the potential still exists for a very powerful hurricane for Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Come on man....at least seemingly a "sexy monster" hitting S FLA would be unlikely due to land interaction, and missing land would be very hard to do here as well given the synoptical regime in place currently. Do you like hotdogs my man? The video above that he posted got to my head, anyway back to Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If it scrapes NORTHERN Hispaniola, the potential still exists for a very powerful hurricane for Florida. yea, not many peaks in eastern hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I have to hand it to you, that was FAST! Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 yea, not many peaks in eastern hispaniola. It is not the peaks per say, but the entire island itself, which could lead to the cyclones core inflow disrupted, in fact the only island in the Greater Antilles that really can't disrupt a cyclones core is Jamaica (if you consider Jamaica part of the Antilles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's official per NHC, center now at 16N 60.4W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If it scrapes NORTHERN Hispaniola, the potential still exists for a very powerful hurricane for Florida. Yes, but if it is that far north already, then it may just miss FL altogether and hit the Carolinas, or even miss altogether. This storm is getting more annoying by the minute.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It is not the peaks per say, but the entire island itself, which could lead to the cyclones core inflow disrupted, in fact the only island in the Greater Antilles that really can't disrupt a cyclones core is Jamaica (if you consider Jamaica part of the Antilles). Not saying Irene wouldn't be inhibited, but a track near/over Puerto Rico, then grazing or even north of Hispaniola leaves the opportunity for a much stronger hurricane than over Hispaniola, Cuba, ect. Note the 11pm NHC Discussion mentioned that either north or south of Hispaniola could result in a major hurricane. BTW Stewart was noted for the new 2am advisory, makes me wanna see a 5am Stewart Discussion.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The convection appears to be creating its own vorticy within a larger vorticy for the entire storm. Some of that may be a continuance of the dry air being pulled into the south side. This is still really a one sided story that is only developing a systemic circulation. Hold on tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It's official per NHC, center now at 16N 60.4W. based on the radar loop above, the center may even be further north than that... this is going to have major implications on the track and intensity forecast for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 if she can just scrape the northern/eastern coast of Hispaniola she could really be primed for sig strengthening as it heads towards the se coast of florida. hard to see how it goes all that far south of puerto rico based on current trajectory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on that loop it almost looks like she may actually go north of Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Look at how far north the Euro is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Oh my... I woke up from my sleep and decided to check on ol' Irene. Didn't expect this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 euro way north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The Euro is right down the center of Hispaniola. Also has it quite weak, only 1004 mb at 60 hours....Ouch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This storm is getting more annoying by the minute.... lolz My feeling exactly. I'm just not liking how this is setting up. It's like watching a kid with every advantage life has to offer getting messed up on drugs. Just a pathetic waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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