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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Per these graphics, that has been true a couple of times through the summer although it appears overall the ensemble NAO forecasts have not been bad this summer:

post-525-0-91486000-1313901534.gif

I will say this though, there is a good amount of spread after the initial well agreed upon dip negative as to whether the NAO will stay rather negative or bounce back to neutral as the European Ensembles showed 12z. The difference between the 12z GFS run and 0z GFS run shows what role that uncertainty will play down the road with Irene. Distance wise it's not a huge difference, but the 12z run was close to bringing Irene over the Gulf along with the 12z CMC and ECM ensembles, while the 0z run doesn't even make an attempt at doing that which would make a huge difference intensity wise.

If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course.

I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect.

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I think the fact that the CMC has shifted that much is a big sign-the new GFS ensembles have shifted way east as well. That weakness along the east coast is the big factor here, this may even miss FL to the east and hit the Carolinas. That would really suck for us, we desperately need the rain.

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If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course.

I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect.

To add on it seems like with the trend of re-curving cyclones in the past few yrs, & the deep -NAO being under-progged during periods of downward transition, in my personal view an easterly track just seems more likely especially with a stronger cyclone. I may be wrong as I often am.

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I think the fact that the CMC has shifted that much is a big sign-the new GFS ensembles have shifted way east as well. That weakness along the east coast is the big factor here, this may even miss FL to the east and hit the Carolinas. That would really suck for us, we desperately need the rain.

At first, it seems like the 00z GFS ensembles have shifted well to the right of the previous run..

14dlef8.jpg

On second thought, those just seem to be the stronger members (sub 1000mb) when you up the minimum pressure to 1008mb, you see the shift is not quite as significant.

2s7c001.gif

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If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course/

I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect.

That's certainty a valid point.

There is some argument that can be made for west of the state...

If the NAO does indeed rise again and the flow becomes more zonal, the system will still likely be far enough south in 4-5 days that ridging can still build north of it (as the trough in 4-5 days would almost certainly miss it) and force it to more more northwesterly into the eastern Gulf.

There is synoptic reasoning for either over eastern Florida or east of the state (as you state) along with over the eastern Gulf, so I just sort of split the middle and gave the GFS/ECM 12z ensemble means a little bit of weight and went over extreme western FL for my track forecast tonight.

Edit to add-and of course as I type this the 0z GEFS comes in significantly farther east.

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At first, it seems like the 00z GFS ensembles have shifted well to the right of the previous run..

On second thought, those just seem to be the stronger members (sub 1000mb) when you up the minimum pressure to 1008mb, you see the shift is not quite as significant.

You don't think Irene will have a sub 1000mb pressure when it approaches Florida? The shift is completely significant IMO.

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That's certainty a valid point.

There is some argument that can be made for west of the state...

If the NAO does indeed rise again and the flow becomes more zonal, the system will still likely be far enough south in 4-5 days that ridging can still build north of it (as the trough in 4-5 days would almost certainly miss it) and force it to more more northwesterly into the eastern Gulf.

There is synoptic reasoning for either over eastern Florida or east of the state (as you state) along with over the eastern Gulf, so I just sort of split the middle and gave the GFS/ECM 12z ensemble means a little bit of weight and went over extreme western FL for my track forecast tonight.

Edit to add-and of course as I type this the 0z GEFS comes in significantly farther east.

You may be right, I'm not an expert here or anything. I recall Emily continuing the westward track as it's disorganization did not allow for a northward tug. Sometimes going with trends seems like the way to go IMO, and knowing that everytime the NAO transitioned to a more negative state, the mean was forecasted overly positive, in the case of Irene I feel it may be better to go with the right portion of the NHC cone

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The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html

I don't know much but it's been said by knowledgeable tropical folks here that using IR imagery to locate the llvl center can be unreliable.

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I can't see crap on that IR satellite. Maybe some of you can but I'll just have to wait for recon and the visible.

I agree it is crap when looking for a LLC. However, it seems that based off of knowing the center was located at 15.3 N by the NHC a few hours ago and seeing the convection expand, I am making an educated guess that the center is now under the convection.

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The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now

http://www.ssd.noaa....t2/loop-rb.html

The convective patterns say it's not below 16N, have a hard time seeing how this misses Puerto Rico.....

MLC is up near 17.5N or something. I do see a WNW movement.

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Depends if it can somehow stay far enough off the Coast of FL.....not that it will.

If it takes a N track and plows through Hispaniola and then into S FL, it might not even be a hurricane in FL. If it misses FL and gets further N, it might recover a little, but it's not going to be one for the ages when it comes ashore at some point further N.

Just hate to see all this potential wasted. The E shift is a bad thing if you want to see a red-meat hurricane landfall in the USA. If you get off on gutted systems without cores brushing the E Coast, then you should celebrate! :D

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