Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like, from my point of view, that the center is moving NNW, and might possibly miss the mountains all together, but then again I'll just rely on what the Models say about it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Canadian has come eastward... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Canadian has come eastward... That's quite the shift eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Can somebody verify if the model data has the RECON center incorporated into it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For a second while watching the GFS run, I thought it would head east of Florida a la Emily. CMC shifted east too? Looks like Euro might get another W under its belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow at the Canadian! That is quite a shift. Where was the center initialized at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Per these graphics, that has been true a couple of times through the summer although it appears overall the ensemble NAO forecasts have not been bad this summer: I will say this though, there is a good amount of spread after the initial well agreed upon dip negative as to whether the NAO will stay rather negative or bounce back to neutral as the European Ensembles showed 12z. The difference between the 12z GFS run and 0z GFS run shows what role that uncertainty will play down the road with Irene. Distance wise it's not a huge difference, but the 12z run was close to bringing Irene over the Gulf along with the 12z CMC and ECM ensembles, while the 0z run doesn't even make an attempt at doing that which would make a huge difference intensity wise. If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course. I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow at the Canadian! That is quite a shift. Where was the center initialized at? It's SE of Dominica by 24 hours, roughly in the same position or a shade south of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think the fact that the CMC has shifted that much is a big sign-the new GFS ensembles have shifted way east as well. That weakness along the east coast is the big factor here, this may even miss FL to the east and hit the Carolinas. That would really suck for us, we desperately need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The Canadian keeps it offshore, by about 25 miles. HR - 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 big trends east tonight, wonder if the euro will hold serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course. I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect. To add on it seems like with the trend of re-curving cyclones in the past few yrs, & the deep -NAO being under-progged during periods of downward transition, in my personal view an easterly track just seems more likely especially with a stronger cyclone. I may be wrong as I often am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think the fact that the CMC has shifted that much is a big sign-the new GFS ensembles have shifted way east as well. That weakness along the east coast is the big factor here, this may even miss FL to the east and hit the Carolinas. That would really suck for us, we desperately need the rain. At first, it seems like the 00z GFS ensembles have shifted well to the right of the previous run.. On second thought, those just seem to be the stronger members (sub 1000mb) when you up the minimum pressure to 1008mb, you see the shift is not quite as significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wild model swings have not abated at all. This is so interesting. And FWIW .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If you look you'll see in times of transitions (period where the NAO falls rather than rises), It seems to always be the case, that the forecast is overly-positive via ensemble means,and it seems to drop sooner...I'm not saying it is the case right now, but it is something to keep an eye on is all, imho of course/ I have always been thinking east of FL was more likely given this aspect. That's certainty a valid point. There is some argument that can be made for west of the state... If the NAO does indeed rise again and the flow becomes more zonal, the system will still likely be far enough south in 4-5 days that ridging can still build north of it (as the trough in 4-5 days would almost certainly miss it) and force it to more more northwesterly into the eastern Gulf. There is synoptic reasoning for either over eastern Florida or east of the state (as you state) along with over the eastern Gulf, so I just sort of split the middle and gave the GFS/ECM 12z ensemble means a little bit of weight and went over extreme western FL for my track forecast tonight. Edit to add-and of course as I type this the 0z GEFS comes in significantly farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the cyclone does end up taking more of this E track, folks in FL and the SE should brace themselves for a harrowing brush with a gutted, 60-kt tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 At first, it seems like the 00z GFS ensembles have shifted well to the right of the previous run.. On second thought, those just seem to be the stronger members (sub 1000mb) when you up the minimum pressure to 1008mb, you see the shift is not quite as significant. You don't think Irene will have a sub 1000mb pressure when it approaches Florida? The shift is completely significant IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wild model swings have not abated at all. This is so interesting. And FWIW .... off topic.. but what is the storm that was declared a depression on Africa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That's certainty a valid point. There is some argument that can be made for west of the state... If the NAO does indeed rise again and the flow becomes more zonal, the system will still likely be far enough south in 4-5 days that ridging can still build north of it (as the trough in 4-5 days would almost certainly miss it) and force it to more more northwesterly into the eastern Gulf. There is synoptic reasoning for either over eastern Florida or east of the state (as you state) along with over the eastern Gulf, so I just sort of split the middle and gave the GFS/ECM 12z ensemble means a little bit of weight and went over extreme western FL for my track forecast tonight. Edit to add-and of course as I type this the 0z GEFS comes in significantly farther east. You may be right, I'm not an expert here or anything. I recall Emily continuing the westward track as it's disorganization did not allow for a northward tug. Sometimes going with trends seems like the way to go IMO, and knowing that everytime the NAO transitioned to a more negative state, the mean was forecasted overly positive, in the case of Irene I feel it may be better to go with the right portion of the NHC cone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If the cyclone does end up taking more of this E track, folks in FL and the SE should brace themselves for a harrowing brush with a gutted, 60-kt tropical storm. Depends if it can somehow stay far enough off the Coast of FL.....not that it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The probability of Irene missing Hispaniola is still very low but possible. Land interaction would be a non-factor, resulting in a more developed TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can't see crap on that IR satellite. Maybe some of you can but I'll just have to wait for recon and the visible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now http://www.ssd.noaa....t2/loop-rb.html Are you sure that isn't the MLC there? The LLC is visible still somewhat SW/WSW of the MLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Upon further investigation... there actually has been a rather noticeable trend eastward since 12z in the GFS ensembles. Its important to note though that these are generally not considered as accurate as the ECWMF ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html I don't know much but it's been said by knowledgeable tropical folks here that using IR imagery to locate the llvl center can be unreliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I can't see crap on that IR satellite. Maybe some of you can but I'll just have to wait for recon and the visible. I agree it is crap when looking for a LLC. However, it seems that based off of knowing the center was located at 15.3 N by the NHC a few hours ago and seeing the convection expand, I am making an educated guess that the center is now under the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The center looks to be under the convection now around 16-16.5 N. This is clearly north of the NHC track. Also, Irene is looking better now http://www.ssd.noaa....t2/loop-rb.html The convective patterns say it's not below 16N, have a hard time seeing how this misses Puerto Rico..... MLC is up near 17.5N or something. I do see a WNW movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Depends if it can somehow stay far enough off the Coast of FL.....not that it will. If it takes a N track and plows through Hispaniola and then into S FL, it might not even be a hurricane in FL. If it misses FL and gets further N, it might recover a little, but it's not going to be one for the ages when it comes ashore at some point further N. Just hate to see all this potential wasted. The E shift is a bad thing if you want to see a red-meat hurricane landfall in the USA. If you get off on gutted systems without cores brushing the E Coast, then you should celebrate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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