mmib Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think it's good to keep in mind that even though we all like watching these TC's spin themselves up and grow strong lets not forget that wherever this goes, death and destruction goes with it. Hispaniola has enough problems itself without a TC coming through. It is most probable that some people will die as a result of this system, especially if I hits Haiti. So given that... I'm a bit appalled at the sub title on this thread. Seriously? Why? Making a joke about a hurricane is not that different from joking in a funeral. Trying to lighten up the atmoshpere because life is harsh and sad. But at least we can joke about it. What else can we do. Be dead serious and mourn until we develop anxiety disorder and end up on happy pills? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Take the morals debate elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 That 126-hr HWRF scenario is hard to swallow give the amount of land interaction that would occur right before it, and also the broadness of this system. I mean, I know that no one takes the HWRF seriously with regard to intensity, but this output seems particularly disconnected from reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 As someone mentioned earlier the recon fix is well south of the main area of convection that has developed. I'm interested to see if the low level center (which wasn't terribly "tight") winds up relocating to the north. A couple tenths of a degree of latitude initially may make a big difference down the road with future interaction with Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Slight change in the GFDL from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 First thoughts on Irene: I believe the STR will verify just a tad stronger in the early going, providing a slight southward track vs. NHC. Otherwise, no real deviation from NHC's thinking from that point other than Irene will have a little more lattitude to gain longitude as it heads into the Florida Straits. This track also would reduce the land interaction with Haiti, and somewhat regarding Cuba. Thus, a slightly stronger 'cane than the NHC is depicting south of Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMimmi Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hello All !! I finally found the forum after the other one closed as you can see by my first post :blush: Im keeping a watch on this one, Irene could be coming for a visit to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 First thoughts on Irene: I believe the STR will verify just a tad stronger in the early going, providing a slight southward track vs. NHC. Otherwise, no real deviation from NHC's thinking from that point other than Irene will have a little more lattitude to gain longitude as it heads into the Florida Straits. This track also would reduce the land interaction with Haiti, and somewhat regarding Cuba. Thus, a slightly stronger 'cane than the NHC is depicting south of Haiti. Haha, I just made my guess, and it's kinda the opposite of what you're thinking, at least trackwise. I was thinking the surface center would be "pulled" towards the area of deep convection early on (which is currently exploding north of the center due to good upper level divergence). Thereafter, the subtropical ridge may be as strong or stronger than forecast, but since my track starts out further north, everything ends up further north/east in my guess. EDIT: I just realized my forecast sucks. I initialized it 5° too far east! I never like going against your forecast, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 funny thing is, no one in the USVI knows this things is coming! Outside chance it'll get to cat 1 status by the time it passes to our south? I'm going to wishcast it north!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 21, 2011 Author Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hey, Ed-- just so the thread is easy to distinguish from others, how about just titling it TS Irene, as per the forum convention for cyclone threads? This long, messy title makes it blend in with all of the other threads in a list view. Sorry. Appears fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 00z TVCN is now in line with the european model with track for this to intensity as it approaches florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Almost all the GFS Ensemble members are in the Gulf now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Almost all the GFS Ensemble members are in the Gulf now The White track looks impossible It never turns NE like every other member. And it is not in the center of guidence toward the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Don't most models trend towards a stronger trough/weaker ridge as we get closer in? I think I remember someone saying that with Earl last year.Thats why we saw a drastic shift east at the end. Another thing... Isn't weird that the season hasn't really started yet and we're already on "I". I just that that was pretty interesting since we are still a couple weeks away from peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The white track is the operational GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The white track is the operational GFS run Wow doesn't speak well for the operational. 20 Members Turn it NE over N Florida while the operational keeps it moving NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Haha, I just made my guess, and it's kinda the opposite of what you're thinking, at least trackwise. I was thinking the surface center would be "pulled" towards the area of deep convection early on (which is currently exploding north of the center due to good upper level divergence). Thereafter, the subtropical ridge may be as strong or stronger than forecast, but since my track starts out further north, everything ends up further north/east in my guess. EDIT: I just realized my forecast sucks. I initialized it 5° too far east! I never like going against your forecast, though. Alright, let's try this again. Now that I initialized the position right, my forecast seems to be much more in line with LEK's. I'm much more comfortable with it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyFL Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Alright, let's try this again. Now that I initialized the position right, my forecast seems to be much more in line with LEK's. I'm much more comfortable with it now. I'm not! I'm in Tampa! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Alright, let's try this again. Now that I initialized the position right, my forecast seems to be much more in line with LEK's. I'm much more comfortable with it now. Interesting Mallow...you going against the GFS and Euro moving this well into the interior U.S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Like LEK's map...I've been hollering for Mobile since Thurs or Fri. But I might be more apt to lean east side of Mobile-Pensacola right now...and I wouldn't rule out a Big Bend type hit or inland on the West Coast. Concerns I have are the models continuing to think this thing is just going to cruise through the Caribbean and over land masses and hold its own. NHC did right to go low end for the most part. Bigger concern I have is what the models do as this lifts north and north-northeast...slowing it down. The ensembles have been hitting on this since midweek, and I am concerned that this may wait a day or two before accelerating (apologies if this has been touched on...haven't gone back over the thread). This has some potential to be a major flooding event for someone between MS and GA/FL. And I think that may be worth watching. Lots of potential with this one...obviously being in JAX, I'm watching this closely...as a Big Bend hit would be a major deal here, potentially moreso than an up the east coast of FL hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The overall upper flow seems to be content to stay b/n 10N-20N. I've noticed that as well. The size of the vertex is enormous with lots of angular momentum that can take a bit of friction and terrain in Hispanola or Cuba, particularly glancing blows...and would be a bit more resistant to changes in direction, as it creates its own atmospheric conditions...the tradeoff is that development should be slow-ish, although it's blown up a bit just NW of the CoC. If the track follows the more southerly solutions, this puppy could fill GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Seems center has relocated north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It also seems that the majority of the forcasted tracks may take it just south of Haiti. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Interesting Mallow...you going against the GFS and Euro moving this well into the interior U.S? Kinda. Instead of individual troughs moving through a more zonal pattern in the NE, I am thinking there will be a slightly deeper stationary trough with the shortwaves thus digging a little deeper south. As Southland noted, once Irene reaches the Gulf of Mexico (or about the same latitude), it probably will slow down quite a bit and slowly drag northwards. It'll only start accelerating once it's far enough north, and that acceleration will likely coincide with the arrival of some individual shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Will frictional forces come into play with Haiti? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Piss poor job by NHC and borderline irresponsible that they initiated Irene as far south as 14.9 north.. and moving due west. It is quite clear by the satellite images that the center of circulation is a good 2 or 3 degrees north of this fix and this thing is heading WNW toward the virgin islands. And if you look at the hurricane hunter track... they didnt hit TS force winds until the northern extent of its flight path. Look for a new/ corrected fix much further north after the next flight. does anyone else see what I am talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Piss poor job by NHC and borderline irresponsible that they initiated Irene as far south as 14.9 north.. and moving due west. It is quite clear by the satellite images that the center of circulation is a good 2 or 3 degrees north of this fix and this thing is heading WNW toward the virgin islands. And if you look at the hurricane hunter track... they didnt hit TS force winds until the northern extent of its flight path. Look for a new/ corrected fix much further north after the next flight. does anyone else see what I am talking about? center looks to be 15.5N 59.5W per shortwave right near the forecast track thats on the SW wide of the big blob but convection seems to be wrapping around the NW side now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Piss poor job by NHC and borderline irresponsible that they initiated Irene as far south as 14.9 north.. and moving due west. It is quite clear by the satellite images that the center of circulation is a good 2 or 3 degrees north of this fix and this thing is heading WNW toward the virgin islands. And if you look at the hurricane hunter track... they didnt hit TS force winds until the northern extent of its flight path. Look for a new/ corrected fix much further north after the next flight. does anyone else see what I am talking about? The number one rule of tracking storms, especially in their formative stages, is to never think you know where the LLC is based on satellite. Surface centers are notoriously tricky to pick out on satellite when the storm is still not that organized. Recon found the center around where the NHC placed it. Satellite suggests the mid-level circulation center is further north, yes, and that may have an impact down the line causing the LLC to be pulled or reform closer to the convection. But that doesn't mean the NHC was wrong to place the center where they placed it. I do agree that the overall system (MLC or what have you) seems to be heading WNW rather than W, but that is also hard to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Piss poor job by NHC and borderline irresponsible that they initiated Irene as far south as 14.9 north.. and moving due west. It is quite clear by the satellite images that the center of circulation is a good 2 or 3 degrees north of this fix and this thing is heading WNW toward the virgin islands. And if you look at the hurricane hunter track... they didnt hit TS force winds until the northern extent of its flight path. Look for a new/ corrected fix much further north after the next flight. does anyone else see what I am talking about? "Piss poor"? "Irresponsible"? Um, no. They do a great job and it's not like the center location is that clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Piss poor job by NHC and borderline irresponsible that they initiated Irene as far south as 14.9 north.. and moving due west. It is quite clear by the satellite images that the center of circulation is a good 2 or 3 degrees north of this fix and this thing is heading WNW toward the virgin islands. And if you look at the hurricane hunter track... they didnt hit TS force winds until the northern extent of its flight path. Look for a new/ corrected fix much further north after the next flight. does anyone else see what I am talking about? Here's a tip, don't come in here bashing the professionals that have been doing this longer then many folks have been in the field. It only makes you look like a buffoon and jacka**. You may have a valid point, but insulting the professionals is only going to discredit your post and make you appear like a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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