Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 FWIW the 18Z GFS ensembles have shifted west..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hey, Ed-- just so the thread is easy to distinguish from others, how about just titling it TS Irene, as per the forum convention for cyclone threads? This long, messy title makes it blend in with all of the other threads in a list view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This may well be the bigger story for the future history of Irene and certainly is viable concern for the NHC and the support teams actively working that region. A million+ living in tents and ruins is not a good situation. I'll be there myself, making plans now if NHC track comes to pass by Wed...leave on Fri. If anyone on this forum has an interest I can provide both provisional, remedial and some worse scenario orgs that would be happy to take labor. Money is of almost of no use in locations such as Haiti. Thanks. Josh, NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 When was the last storm to be initialized at 45kts or higher? It's not really rare, especially among eastern Atlantic storms and subtropical systems, but just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I have noticed that weaker stormstend to make better combacks after hitting Islands. Not Emily however. Ike is a good example, it would have restrengthend a lot more over the gulf but it was never able to get those wounds from cuba to heal quite right. Same with Georges in 1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 FWIW the 18Z GFS ensembles have shifted west..... Let's hope this misses Shredderola for both humanitarian and tropical-dude concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think it's good to keep in mind that even though we all like watching these TC's spin themselves up and grow strong lets not forget that wherever this goes, death and destruction goes with it. Hispaniola has enough problems itself without a TC coming through. It is most probable that some people will die as a result of this system, especially if I hits Haiti. So given that... I'm a bit appalled at the sub title on this thread. Miami Masher? Charleston Chew? Pensacola Pounder? Mobile Mauler? Seriously? Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think it's good to keep in mind that even though we all like watching these TC's spin themselves up and grow strong lets not forget that wherever this goes, death and destruction goes with it. Hispaniola has enough problems itself without a TC coming through. It is most probable that some people will die as a result of this system, especially if I hits Haiti. So given that... I'm a bit appalled at the sub title on this thread. Seriously? Why? It's just a parody of how we always describe tropical systems with alliterative names. No biggie. My issue with it is not that it's bad taste, but that it's inaccurate hype at this point, since no models are suggesting any of these scenarios with any consistency. Given this, the thread tagline, instead of being informative, is just silliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Apparantly the sfc recon fix is quite a bit south of the CDO/mid-level circulation. Borrowing no center relocation to the north after continued organization, the current NHC track will barely make landfall on the southside of Haiti. We're talking about 48 hours out too, when that happens. So a nudge south is all it would take to avoid the island completely. Obviously the mountains will inhibit any inflow from the north, but if this is a well defined system with an eye by that point, it won't fall apart if it doesn't make landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is the 12Z, but took me forever to get a stable run thanks to weather blowing up on the western periphery of the previous domains and crashing it. Pressure in that frame is hard to read but is 967 mb. In the last few frames before it leaves the domain, it keeps skirting southern Cuba. Mostly just Gulf-lovers porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This is the 12Z, but took me forever to get a stable run thanks to weather blowing up on the western periphery of the previous domains and crashing it. Pressure in that frame is hard to read but is 967 mb. In the last few frames before it leaves the domain, it keeps skirting southern Cuba. Mostly just Gulf-lovers porn. Wow-- seriously. That is a perfect track, honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFDL west HOUR: .0 LONG: -57.22 LAT: 14.44 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1004.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 40.10 HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -58.80 LAT: 14.84 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.43 HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -60.77 LAT: 15.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.36 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.31 HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -62.88 LAT: 15.81 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 54.20 HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -64.59 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 62.83 HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -66.30 LAT: 16.61 MIN PRESS (hPa): 985.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 76.30 HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -67.87 LAT: 16.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 978.74 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.12 HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -69.46 LAT: 16.94 MIN PRESS (hPa): 971.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.53 HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -70.92 LAT: 17.15 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):106.45 HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -72.28 LAT: 17.35 MIN PRESS (hPa): 954.60 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):104.04 HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -73.64 LAT: 17.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.33 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.73 HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -74.86 LAT: 17.79 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.83 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.80 HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -75.95 LAT: 17.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.23 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):114.43 HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -76.92 LAT: 17.87 MIN PRESS (hPa): 941.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):109.23 HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -78.01 LAT: 18.01 MIN PRESS (hPa): 948.03 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):107.60 HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -79.00 LAT: 18.25 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.67 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):113.95 HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -79.93 LAT: 18.54 MIN PRESS (hPa): 942.10 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):118.59 HOUR:102.0 LONG: -80.70 LAT: 18.88 MIN PRESS (hPa): 931.85 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):125.30 HOUR:108.0 LONG: -81.63 LAT: 19.38 MIN PRESS (hPa): 929.82 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.06 HOUR:114.0 LONG: -82.53 LAT: 19.98 MIN PRESS (hPa): 928.34 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):124.96 HOUR:120.0 LONG: -83.46 LAT: 20.66 MIN PRESS (hPa): 924.56 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):132.89 HOUR:126.0 LONG: -84.50 LAT: 21.32 MIN PRESS (hPa): 920.99 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):133.46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think it's good to keep in mind that even though we all like watching these TC's spin themselves up and grow strong lets not forget that wherever this goes, death and destruction goes with it. Hispaniola has enough problems itself without a TC coming through. It is most probable that some people will die as a result of this system, especially if I hits Haiti. So given that... I'm a bit appalled at the sub title on this thread. Seriously? Why? Well, we have winter system terms like Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan Screamer, Manitoba Mauler, etc... and those have killed people. I see it as more of a takeoff on media headlines than any perceived disrespect towards whomever is ultimately affected. And before this gets derailed into another morality issue of "wishing" for catastrophe: Nobody here wants to see death, destruction, or human suffering... but I think all of us want to see what nature is capable of at its most extreme. It's the weenie in all of us, and I for one won't apologize for it. Back to the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'll be there myself, making plans now if NHC track comes to pass by Wed...leave on Fri. If anyone on this forum has an interest I can provide both provisional, remedial and some worse scenario orgs that would be happy to take labor. Money is of almost of no use in locations such as Haiti. Thanks. Josh, NYC Been there twice in August of different years to work. God bless you for helping. The folks are nice, so on a good day, enjoy their spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFDL west Wow-- super-hawt run. An intense, strengthening cyclone moving through the Yucatan Channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Wow-- super-hawt run. An intense cyclone moving through the Yucatan Channel. Jesus the end of that run has it at a cat 4... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Jesus the end of that run has it at a cat 4... That's high-end Cat 4. The GFDL often goes nutty with intensity, so I'd take it with a grain of salt-- but the track is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is the 12Z, but took me forever to get a stable run thanks to weather blowing up on the western periphery of the previous domains and crashing it. Pressure in that frame is hard to read but is 967 mb. In the last few frames before it leaves the domain, it keeps skirting southern Cuba. Mostly just Gulf-lovers porn. Dig out the ol' Jamaican radio links if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Jesus the end of that run has it at a cat 4... gfdl is laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 gfdl is laughable. See my post above. The intensity can be dismissed, but the track is really what's interesting here-- it's way W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 See my post above. The intensity can be dismissed, but the track is really what's interesting here-- it's way W. Track can be dismissed too more or less - too far west. Weird for the GFDL as it usu has a poleward bias. Not sure what's up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 See my post above. The intensity can be dismissed, but the track is really what's interesting here-- it's way W. Agree... Considering the GFDL is usually recurve happy. Altogether it is looking quite possible that Irene may miss Hispaniola to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Track can be dismissed too more or less - too far west. Weird for the GFDL as it usu has a poleward bias. Not sure what's up with that. Can be dismissed based on what? Even if it is too far W, it pulls the consensus W. As I mentioned earlier, even a slight left shift in the forecast track would have major implications, as it would then miss Shredderola. Agree... Considering the GFDL is usually recurve happy. Altogether it is looking quite possible that Irene may miss Hispaniola to the south. Bingo-- my thought exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Track can be dismissed too more or less - too far west. Weird for the GFDL as it usu has a poleward bias. Not sure what's up with that. Um no.. you can't dismiss it for no reason. If it was ridiculously poleward, then sure because the model has that bias... But when it is the opposite such as this, then it is time to take notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Track can be dismissed too more or less - too far west. Weird for the GFDL as it usu has a poleward bias. Not sure what's up with that. P.S. It's kind of obvious that no model should be taken verbatim at this point, and no one model holds the truth here. But when a couple of them are so far W (GFDL, UKMET), you have to take that into account looking at the overall picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The overall upper flow seems to be content to stay b/n 10N-20N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 P.S. It's kind of obvious that no model should be taken verbatim at this point, and no one model holds the truth here. But when a couple of them are so far W (GFDL, UKMET), you have to take that into account looking at the overall picture. I am still astounded at model consensus as far as cyclone goes for the past five to six days. Track has been all over the place just the same. SO interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Given that there is a poleward bias in the GFDL.. what would cause it to be backed down to the south. Obviously the mid-Atlantic ridge would be the 1st culprit but what is the reason behind that moving? I know that some red tagger was talking about the GGEM and UKMET pushing the ridge down by a shortwave in the North Atlantic. Does anyone know of the initalization scheme of the GFDL and where it takes its ingestion data from on its boundaries outside of the nested area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Dig out the ol' Jamaican radio links if that happens. Yeah, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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