snowman22 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I feel like every time a storm is hyped to be very strong, it turns out to be a dud. Like Emily? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Not to mention the fact that it is giant and loose right now, both detrimental factors when it comes to serious intensification. A larger circulation is a good thing when it comes to land interaction, small storms/circulations are more vunerable to disruption & apt to change in shorter time periods, at least from what I know. If we have Irene (supposedly we do), and the large system can strengthen/consolidate a bit more, we may see it holds Its own at least a little better over land than it would if it were a small storm, just IMFO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 WE HAVE IRENE!! BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al972011_al092011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108202225 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011 Im going to immediately bookmark, for the last time what is the link to those again. I'll never ask again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 CUmet if this comes close to sfl as the gfs/ecm suggest care to guess on intensity? Perhaps minimal cane? Taking the track verbatim (crossing both Hispaniola and Cuba), I would say somewhere between a strong TS to weak Cat 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 A larger circulation is a good thing when it comes to land interaction, small storms/circulations are more vunerable to disruption & apt to change in shorter time periods, at least from what I know. If we have Irene (supposedly we do), and the large system can strengthen, we may see it holds Its own at least a little better over land than it would if it were a small storm, just IMFO. Sure, but I was responding to cumet's post about the chances of a hurricane between now and Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Im going to immediately bookmark, for the last time what is the link to those again. I'll never ask again lol ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18z GFS also pushes it inland and slows it down as the 12z ECMWF run did, not saying it is important, but it reflects differing synoptics/northward lift of the westerlies in recent model runs, which may also have an impact on the track while still over water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Taking the track verbatim (crossing both Hispaniola and Cuba), I would say somewhere between a strong TS to weak Cat 2. Interesting...Without power with either avenues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I feel like every time a storm is hyped to be very strong, it turns out to be a dud. Perhaps, but every scenario is different and in this case the synoptical regime steering the storm is somewhat different, and the shear between 200-300mb that screwed Emily does not seem to be present here. Maybe post a more detailed reasoning why this storm may turn out to be a dud (it might), rather than a one line snippet like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The first key is staying clear of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Each run the GFS has been showing a faster and flatter trough upstream with a stronger ridge each run pushing this further west. 18z 12z 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think these are the important factors:Track, timing, and position of the Atlantic ridge.Faster storm has a better chance of bringing this up the east coast, slower storm means GOM storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 000 WTNT84 KNHC 202302 TCVAT4 IRENE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011 .TROPICAL STORM IRENE PRZ001-002-003-004-005-006-007-008-009-010-011-012-013-VIZ001-002- 210300- /O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1009.110820T2300Z-000000T0000Z/ 700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011 PUERTO-RICO 18.22N 66.44W VIEQUES 18.12N 65.43W CULEBRA 18.32N 65.28W ST-THOMAS-AND-ST-JOHN 18.33N 64.85W ST-CROIX 17.74N 64.73W $$ ATTN...WFO...SJU... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hurricane before Hispaniola, but looks like it goes over too much land to intensify much beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just got outta work, looks like I'll have to concede to the use of Irene as the first significant threat of the season. Okay, with that out of the way, if a west trend develops, then this could be a significant hurricane south of Cuba, being August with warm waters, then a Charley-type track could be possible. Note I said track, not intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The NHC track looks like complete crap if you want a red-meat hurricane out of this, but notice that if it shifts just a little to the left, we have a strong cyclone moving S of the Greater Antilles-- and suddenly a much more provocative scenario. So, if the models trend left, this could get kind of interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 55 knots at 120 hours. Of course intensity that far out can be a crap shoot when 150 miles means the difference between Cuba and water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The NHC forecast shows pretty steady recovery after Cuba, with Day 5 being 55 kt. Extrapolating that trend suggests a good possibility of a Cat 1 impacting the Miami area. Of course it's going to change, but that's interesting to note. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The NHC track looks like complete crap if you want a red-meat hurricane out of this, but notice that if it shifts just a little to the left, we have a strong cyclone moving S of the Greater Antilles-- and suddenly a much more provocative scenario. So, if the models trend left, this could get kind of interesting... It's early in the process and there are at least two G-IV missions tasked. Looks like an interesting 6-7 days or so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just got outta work, looks like I'll have to concede to the use of Irene as the first significant threat of the season. Okay, with that out of the way, if a west trend develops, then this could be a significant hurricane south of Cuba, being August with warm waters, then a Charley-type track could be possible. Note I said track, not intensity. I don't think a Charley track is in the cards... there is no strong powerful upper level trough that is picking up Irene in the long range. The northward turn occurs because Irene is a vertically deep system and will feel a weakness in between two strong ridges. The storm will turn north, but it doesn't look like we are going to see a strong recurving solution, more of a slow northerly track beyond 96 hours as the ridge from the west attempts to build back in, slowing its progress northward further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The NHC forecast shows pretty steady recovery after Cuba, with Day 5 being 55 kt. Extrapolating that trend suggests a good possibility of a Cat 1 impacting the Miami area. Of course it's going to change, but that's interesting to note. I think one of the major headlines with this storm will not be the wind, but the heavy rains along the east coast due to the slow movement. It'll be interesting to see the radar images over the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think one of the major headlines with this storm will not be the wind, but the heavy rains along the east coast due to the slow movement. It'll be interesting to see the radar images over the islands. I think heavy rains in AL/GA is more likely than heavy rains along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's early in the process and there are at least two G-IV missions tasked. Looks like an interesting 6-7 days or so... You're thinking Central Gulf? Evven before the G-IV, a well fixed center and strength should help as soon as the 0Z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 With all of the Debbie downerisms aside for a moment, I think one question that needs to be asked more is why do the models strengthen Irene so much after Hispaniola and Cuba despite the disruption in circulation? We've seen plenty of instances of the models killing a storm near Hispaniola (Emily)...so it isn't a pattern. I think it mainly has to do with the large size of the circulation as well as potential exceptionally favorable upper level conditions post-GAs. Also, keep in mind that with respect to Hispaniola, the angle of approach to the island seems to have a significant effect... With the position of the central peaks relative to the cyclone as a whole being key. The worst thing a TC could do is approach the island from the south or southeast heading directly for the central peaks. There is certainly no guarantee that is what happens with respect to Irene at the moment. I think, overall, significant strengthening post-GAs as of now cannot be ruled out. Right now I'm leaning on the left side of model consensus based mainly on the trends of underforecasting the strength of the ridge... There is enough model evidence to support either the FL peninsula or GOM solutions, but I have to stick with GOM due to consistency of several ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I think as currently progged this is a complete waste of a great (if you like storms) possibility...we won't likely see this set-up again this year. Alas, if it comes to pass than Haiti becomes unlivable. Very very sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Alas, if it comes to pass than Haiti becomes unlivable. Very very sad. This may well be the bigger story for the future history of Irene and certainly is viable concern for the NHC and the support teams actively working that region. A million+ living in tents and ruins is not a good situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This may well be the bigger story for the future history of Irene and certainly is viable concern for the NHC and the support teams actively working that region. A million+ living in tents and ruins is not a good situation. The good news is that the decent forward motion of Irene will help limit too much rain vs. a stalled or slow moving Jeanne like situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This may well be the bigger story for the future history of Irene and certainly is viable concern for the NHC and the support teams actively working that region. A million+ living in tents and ruins is not a good situation. As modeled, it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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