phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Thinking they go 50 or 60 mph? Would make sense to go 60. Likely 45 knots or 50 mph... I didn't see any SFMR data that supported 50 knots that was not rain contaminated. 45 knots would also support the current max flight level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Charlie did not come up the peninsula as a hurricane. It crossed from the Gulf over Orlando. We were supposed to get nailed all the way up from Sanibel to Jax, and saw not a shower or a leaf flutter here in Gainesville. It did hook right (at least more right than the posted NHC map suggested as the track). THEN we got Frances and Jeanne right over us - which more than made up for missing Mr. Charlie. I did not say it would take Charlie's path. I said it would take that one I showed. Which was a NHC prediction before it shifted again. I was just using that track as a reference not as in the actual storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hopefully, you read my reasons for "looking" at the NAM, and understanding that it is the last piece of guidance that we have just recieved. If someone is going to use the NAM as a verbatium potential track....it's fairly useless. But understanding the model's glaring, BUT CONSISTENT biases, there is value in it's discussion. The posts were not related. Yeah I think the 84 hr nam is 'funny' but I was not referring to you. I'm talking about the people who are using this thread as a banter hall or just posting "hey that's interesting", talking about landfall effects in coastal NJ, etc. I think the people who are going to get themselves in trouble can figure out who they are and cut it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If that is something they consider, do you think from now until then that it is possible soon-to-be ramps up even more, say.. 10 kts? They'd be looking at starting her off at almost Cat 1, right? Of course, this is a what-if only sort of thing... but I would think that they'd probably issue and upgrade as soon as they possibly could. They do special advisories for cases like this, no? Well its already past the 4pm issuance time for traditional advisories, so they will have to do a special advisory for this system. It looks like the intensity will be somewhere between 40-50 knots, and I'd hedge me bets that they will stick to 45 knots for now based of the FL winds and un-contaminated SFMR data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Likely 45 knots or 50 mph... I didn't see any SFMR data that supported 50 knots that was not rain contaminated. 45 knots would also support the current max flight level winds. Does the NHC really not use 55 MPH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I did not say it would take Charlie's path. I said it would take that one I showed. Which was a NHC prediction before it shifted again. I was just using that track as a reference not as in the actual storm. Understand (I think). Are you suggesting this one will come up the peninsula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The posts were not related. Yeah I think the 84 hr nam is 'funny' but I was not referring to you. I'm talking about the people who are using this thread as a banter hall or just posting "hey that's interesting", talking about landfall effects in coastal NJ, etc. I think the people who are going to get themselves in trouble can figure out who they are and cut it out. My bad on the assumption then! GFS running (yeah, I know, off hour! ) But I think we can really start honing in on whether Haiti becomes a shredder or not, with the next few runs of the globals, and the fact that we basically have evidence of a TC at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Does the NHC really not use 55 MPH? They make estimates to the nearest 5 kt and then convert to the nearest 5 mph. 45 kt converts to 50 mph and 50 kt converts to 60 mph when you round the values. 55 mph falls through the cracks between the two, so you don't see it in advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Understand (I think). Are you suggesting this one will come up the peninsula? I am think between FL either west or east is a high risk target. With GA to SC and AL to MS in the Moderate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 They make estimates to the nearest 5 kt and then convert to the nearest 5 mph. 45 kt converts to 50 mph and 50 kt converts to 60 mph when you round the values. Ah ok. Thanks for the clear up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 They make estimates to the nearest 5 kt and then convert to the nearest 5 mph. 45 kt converts to 50 mph and 50 kt converts to 60 mph when you round the values. 55 mph falls through the cracks between the two, so you don't see it in advisories. Except in the rare intermediate advisory where winds are only given in mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Still looks like this is on a collision course with Hispaniola within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 nice anti-cyclone right above it....which is causing the awesome fanning out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 So did the west winds just disappear that pass or what? I did not see any as it headed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 So did the west winds just disappear that pass or what? I did not see any as it headed north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I am seeing the same thing basically all the winds are easterly as the plane went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yucky LLC. Looks like the first recon pass was right place at right time deal. At least we know its getting there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 man huge..check out the inflow bands in the SE quad too 100's of miles away from the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Decent N/S wind shift on the second pass. VDM says 1007 mb…a mb higher than the last one. At least a start though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 http://philstropical...s-disorganized/ My thoughts on Invest 97 (soon to be Irene?) My main idea is that there is still a lot of uncertainty in the long range with the models and very subtle differences will affect the track and intensity of the storm. Based on the weaker NAO signal and the continuing influence of the +SOI, my hunch is that the ridging is at least slightly underdone in the current modeling and that a westward track from consensus is favored at this point. One other interesting feature of note is the lower heights located over the north Atlantic... this might "squeeze" the ridge a little bit more to the south, keeping our system perhaps on a further south course as well. This is the solution the UKMET and the GGEM have on tap, while the GFS And the ECWMF shows a more northerly displaced mid-level ridge which allows a bit more wiggle room for a stronger TC to move NW beyond 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18Z GFS looking Ernestoish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Another VDM put out by HH! That shows confidence in what their seeing visually/radar out there and its not just one time fluke. What worries me a bit is lines J and K with the Temp/Dp. and this is just not at the center it's all around the system. We still have a dew-point depression of 25°F with 73/48 on the last VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18Z GFS looking Ernestoish. Likely stronger...minimal cane. By the way second VDM came through i expect an upgrade soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 WE HAVE IRENE!! BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_RENUMBER_al972011_al092011.ren FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201108202225 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 09, 2011, DB, O, 2011081812, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL092011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Considering that the current center position is almost at 15N, and the presence of deep convection to the north which may drag the center in that direction, the UKMET/CMC southern solutions in the short-medium term look very dubious. Both models don't have this crossing 15N until about 65W. I have to say that significant interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba is pretty likely, and the intensity of this will take quite a hit afterwards. In the short term, the environment looks favorable for significant intensification in the next 48 hours before Hispaniola. The SHIPS takes this to an impressive strong Cat 2 at that point, and has more credibility now that this is a legit TC. I would probably go slightly below SHIPS, somewhere in the Cat 1-2 range, as it often takes some time to get the inner core organized in developing TCs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 BEST TRACK: AL09, 146N 572W, 45kts, 1006mb, TS IRENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Well, we are witnessing the birth of a potential huge and very strong storm. Or just a sloppy tropical storm as it goes through the Caribbean considering it very well could bisect Hispaniola and Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Considering that the current center position is almost at 15N, and the presence of deep convection to the north which may drag the center in that direction, the UKMET/CMC southern solutions in the short-medium term look very dubious. Both models don't have this crossing 15N until about 65W. I have to say that significant interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba is pretty likely, and the intensity of this will take quite a hit afterwards. In the short term, the environment looks favorable for significant intensification in the next 48 hours before Hispaniola. The SHIPS takes this to an impressive strong Cat 2 at that point, and has more credibility now that this is a legit TC. I would probably go slightly below SHIPS, somewhere in the Cat 1-2 range, as it often takes some time to get the inner core organized in developing TCs. Not to mention the fact that it is giant and loose right now, both detrimental factors when it comes to serious intensification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Well, we are witnessing the birth of a potential huge and very strong storm. If Hispaniola and Cuba and potentially other landmasses don't kill/maim it first. Then maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Considering that the current center position is almost at 15N, and the presence of deep convection to the north which may drag the center in that direction, the UKMET/CMC southern solutions in the short-medium term look very dubious. Both models don't have this crossing 15N until about 65W. I have to say that significant interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba is pretty likely, and the intensity of this will take quite a hit afterwards. In the short term, the environment looks favorable for significant intensification in the next 48 hours before Hispaniola. The SHIPS takes this to an impressive strong Cat 2 at that point, and has more credibility now that this is a legit TC. I would probably go slightly below SHIPS, somewhere in the Cat 1-2 range, as it often takes some time to get the inner core organized in developing TCs. CUmet if this comes close to sfl as the gfs/ecm suggest care to guess on intensity? Perhaps minimal cane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.