janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 URNT15 KNHC 202103 AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 26 20110820 205330 1435N 05743W 9598 00406 0057 +225 +080 198012 013 024 000 00 205400 1434N 05744W 9589 00416 0058 +224 +080 201009 010 021 000 00 205430 1433N 05745W 9594 00412 0058 +230 +080 211006 007 021 000 00 205500 1432N 05746W 9594 00413 0058 +230 +082 267004 005 019 001 00 205530 1430N 05747W 9582 00425 0060 +230 +081 330004 005 019 000 00 205600 1429N 05749W 9589 00422 0064 +229 +080 357002 004 018 001 00 205630 1428N 05750W 9597 00415 0066 +225 +082 256001 002 020 000 00 205700 1426N 05751W 9593 00420 0067 +225 +083 311002 003 016 001 00 205730 1425N 05753W 9595 00419 0068 +225 +083 359003 003 019 000 00 205800 1424N 05754W 9593 00421 0069 +224 +085 019005 006 021 000 00 205830 1422N 05756W 9595 00420 0069 +222 +085 020005 005 019 000 00 205900 1421N 05757W 9593 00421 0069 +220 +086 011005 006 019 000 00 205930 1419N 05759W 9597 00418 0070 +220 +087 017005 006 020 000 00 210000 1418N 05800W 9594 00421 0068 +227 +087 336003 004 019 000 00 210030 1417N 05801W 9594 00420 0066 +231 +087 325005 005 018 000 00 210100 1415N 05803W 9594 00419 0066 +233 +088 318006 006 018 001 00 210130 1414N 05804W 9594 00420 0067 +235 +089 316006 006 019 001 00 210200 1412N 05806W 9594 00420 0066 +237 +091 305004 005 019 000 00 210230 1411N 05807W 9593 00421 0067 +235 +091 301003 004 017 001 00 210300 1410N 05808W 9594 00421 0067 +235 +091 305002 002 018 001 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Recon has found some west winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 URNT15 KNHC 202103 AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 26 20110820 205330 1435N 05743W 9598 00406 0057 +225 +080 198012 013 024 000 00 205400 1434N 05744W 9589 00416 0058 +224 +080 201009 010 021 000 00 205430 1433N 05745W 9594 00412 0058 +230 +080 211006 007 021 000 00 205500 1432N 05746W 9594 00413 0058 +230 +082 267004 005 019 001 00 205530 1430N 05747W 9582 00425 0060 +230 +081 330004 005 019 000 00 205600 1429N 05749W 9589 00422 0064 +229 +080 357002 004 018 001 00 205630 1428N 05750W 9597 00415 0066 +225 +082 256001 002 020 000 00 205700 1426N 05751W 9593 00420 0067 +225 +083 311002 003 016 001 00 205730 1425N 05753W 9595 00419 0068 +225 +083 359003 003 019 000 00 205800 1424N 05754W 9593 00421 0069 +224 +085 019005 006 021 000 00 205830 1422N 05756W 9595 00420 0069 +222 +085 020005 005 019 000 00 205900 1421N 05757W 9593 00421 0069 +220 +086 011005 006 019 000 00 205930 1419N 05759W 9597 00418 0070 +220 +087 017005 006 020 000 00 210000 1418N 05800W 9594 00421 0068 +227 +087 336003 004 019 000 00 210030 1417N 05801W 9594 00420 0066 +231 +087 325005 005 018 000 00 210100 1415N 05803W 9594 00419 0066 +233 +088 318006 006 018 001 00 210130 1414N 05804W 9594 00420 0067 +235 +089 316006 006 019 001 00 210200 1412N 05806W 9594 00420 0066 +237 +091 305004 005 019 000 00 210230 1411N 05807W 9593 00421 0067 +235 +091 301003 004 017 001 00 210300 1410N 05808W 9594 00421 0067 +235 +091 305002 002 018 001 03 So, they've got their winds, and we've got our TS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 We've all used a wrench as a hammer, a screwdriver as a chisel, or a hack saw to cut wood at one time....and it worked sometimes in some specific instances, better than the tool we should have used. That in mind, the 18z NAM (knowing it likes to spin) has a pretty far south (a pretty good southward shift from its runs of the past few days) track depiction, despite it's robust cyclone display. This is ONE case where (knowing models biases, even if they "suck" at a particular aspect, can be of some noted value) the NAM could be clueing us in on a potetial further south track...assuming it has a well modeled, non-tropical environment. Just another piece of evidence that, if we do have a slower developing system, one would think it would be south of what the NAM has displayed, ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 tropical storm Irene? URNT15 KNHC 202103 AF300 01GGA INVEST HDOB 26 20110820 205330 1435N 05743W 9598 00406 0057 +225 +080 198012 013 024 000 00 205400 1434N 05744W 9589 00416 0058 +224 +080 201009 010 021 000 00 205430 1433N 05745W 9594 00412 0058 +230 +080 211006 007 021 000 00 205500 1432N 05746W 9594 00413 0058 +230 +082 267004 005 019 001 00 205530 1430N 05747W 9582 00425 0060 +230 +081 330004 005 019 000 00 205600 1429N 05749W 9589 00422 0064 +229 +080 357002 004 018 001 00 205630 1428N 05750W 9597 00415 0066 +225 +082 256001 002 020 000 00 205700 1426N 05751W 9593 00420 0067 +225 +083 311002 003 016 001 00 205730 1425N 05753W 9595 00419 0068 +225 +083 359003 003 019 000 00 205800 1424N 05754W 9593 00421 0069 +224 +085 019005 006 021 000 00 205830 1422N 05756W 9595 00420 0069 +222 +085 020005 005 019 000 00 205900 1421N 05757W 9593 00421 0069 +220 +086 011005 006 019 000 00 205930 1419N 05759W 9597 00418 0070 +220 +087 017005 006 020 000 00 210000 1418N 05800W 9594 00421 0068 +227 +087 336003 004 019 000 00 210030 1417N 05801W 9594 00420 0066 +231 +087 325005 005 018 000 00 210100 1415N 05803W 9594 00419 0066 +233 +088 318006 006 018 001 00 210130 1414N 05804W 9594 00420 0067 +235 +089 316006 006 019 001 00 210200 1412N 05806W 9594 00420 0066 +237 +091 305004 005 019 000 00 210230 1411N 05807W 9593 00421 0067 +235 +091 301003 004 017 001 00 210300 1410N 05808W 9594 00421 0067 +235 +091 305002 002 018 001 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The large broad nature of the wave and associated squalls in the northern developing bands are no doubt making for some strong surface winds. If this has closed off, it goes straight to TS. Also, the new pulse of convection near what would be the center of the broader circulation around 16N is really taking off now. Still, with the rather large envelope, it's going to take some time to get a core that would be able to rapidly intensify even with the establishment of a persistent CDO. This will be a large system with bands reaching out beyond 500 miles. Regardless if it has an intense core, flooding rains may persist for many days over the Greater Antilles. Big trouble for Hispaniola coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 charley maps and the 84 hr nam.. oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Now it can finally get interesting. It is interesting to note, however, and if anyone informed enough can enlighten me-- as it was mentioned just before-- since this wave is so large, is it possible that they will not fly south enough to find all of the winds they need? Or, no matter the size, the winds in all direction will be in a relatively small area to find... I'm just curious with this amount of wind, and low enough pressure, if it will be classified soon as a TS. Given what the models have been depicting for days (significant TC in the Caribbean, coupled with it's imminent arrival to the L. A., I don't think we will see the NHC go to conservative when it comes time to classify, even if the recon doesn't give them what they "subjectively" need..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like Irene... very poorly organized circulation, but those west winds are likely enough for the upgrade considering the very strong winds on the NE flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 charley maps and the 84 hr nam.. oh my Next there will be the great storm of 1900 I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 charley maps and the 84 hr nam.. oh my What a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 reminder AGAIN... please try to post stuff of value. people are going to start disappearing from these threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The circulation seems awfully broad still. Not sure if they'll upgrade right away... but they have found some pretty impressive winds in the convection north of the "center" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like Irene... very poorly organized circulation, but those west winds are likely enough for the upgrade considering the very strong winds on the NE flank. Phil, I would speculate the same. Especially considering it's close proximity to these islands, and the amount of rain that may be coming their way-- not to mention the high winds already associated with this system. Given this chunk of meat for the globals and models to run off of, do you think that the coming runs will be any more accurate? Are we too far in for the next set to use this for initialization purposes? Given where her center is located (as pointed out by a picture just posted) do you think this lends credibility to any certain global's track as far as llc initialization and track? What are your general thoughts, now, after seeing the expansive wind field and pressure low enough to be classified? Which model/global would you lean more toward? Sorry for all the questions, just respect your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 does anyone remember the last time an invest was immediately upgraded to a 50 mph TS? new record, perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 reminder AGAIN... please try to post stuff of value. people are going to start disappearing from these threads. You're a magician? :o Back on topic - we certainly seem to be pretty darn close to an upgrade (maybe next update given the west winds found). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 With such an oblique angle of attack, all of Florida will be terrorized. By a large, loose, 55-kt tropical storm. "Terrorized" might be a strong word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Given what the models have been depicting for days (significant TC in the Caribbean, coupled with it's imminent arrival to the L. A., I don't think we will see the NHC go to conservative when it comes time to classify, even if the recon doesn't give them what they "subjectively" need..... I agree wholeheartedly. Especially given it's close proximity to island land, and what we've seen the models do, even WITH interaction with land (even though I know they get the pressure wrong most of the time, etc). Do you feel that a more easterly, or more westerly track will eventually come to fruition? To me, I was thinking it would be a more westerly track, into the EGOM, however, this has gotten a bit stronger earlier than I anticipated. And I've always viewed any severe weather as the stronger it is, the more "right" it seems to track. How do you feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 By a large, loose, 55-kt tropical storm. "Terrorized" might be a strong word. his post was deleted.. example of something not needed in this thread. saying something is "interesting" or such also probably not. i see some posters posting half liners every 4 minutes. also bad. come on folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The circulation seems awfully broad still. Not sure if they'll upgrade right away... but they have found some pretty impressive winds in the convection north of the "center" I'm sure recon is not quite done sampling the storm so they might try to get a couple more passes to see if the circulation is becoming better defined. However, the cluster of convection developing along with the 50+ knot flight level winds to the north of the center make me believe that an upgrade is more likely than not. They could also hold off upgrading till later tonight to see if this system continues to get better organized after the flight leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Bottom line is that if this rides the Greater Antilles (Shredderola and Cuba) into S FL, it's most likely going to be crap when it gets there. That's not to say that there haven't been past examples of 'canes exiting Cuba and hitting S FL very strong, because there have-- King 1950 is a good example-- but it's unusual. If it rides the Greater Antilles and then heads to 1) the E Gulf or 2) GA/Carolinas, it could get more interesting, as it would have more recovery time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 By a large, loose, 55-kt tropical storm. "Terrorized" might be a strong word. Hey, Josh. I bet you're getting antsy!! Will you be chasing this baby, if it is US-landfalling and more to the EC/FL? Or do you tend to stick to the western GOM areas? Do you have any initial thoughts in regard to a "track-change" based on where soon-to-be Irene may be initialized from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 One other note... while the flight level westerly winds were fairly low (5-10 knots) the surface winds observed from SFMR were between 15-25 knots on the southern half of the circulation with little to no rain contamination. Does anybody know if they are able to observe wind direction from SFMR observations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow, we got a VDM out of this, defiantly Irene imminent. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:18Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 20:55:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°31'N 57°46'W (14.5167N 57.7667W) B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (255 km) to the NE (52°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 53kts (From the E at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 457m (1,499ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:25:20Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hey, Josh. I bet you're getting antsy!! Will you be chasing this baby, if it is US-landfalling and more to the EC/FL? Or do you tend to stick to the western GOM areas? Do you have any initial thoughts in regard to a "track-change" based on where soon-to-be Irene may be initialized from? you've asked like 29 questions in the last 5 minutes...use the PM system or sit back and wait for them to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'm sure recon is not quite done sampling the storm so they might try to get a couple more passes to see if the circulation is becoming better defined. However, the cluster of convection developing along with the 50+ knot flight level winds to the north of the center make me believe that an upgrade is more likely than not. They could also hold off upgrading till later tonight to see if this system continues to get better organized after the flight leaves. If that is something they consider, do you think from now until then that it is possible soon-to-be ramps up even more, say.. 10 kts? They'd be looking at starting her off at almost Cat 1, right? Of course, this is a what-if only sort of thing... but I would think that they'd probably issue and upgrade as soon as they possibly could. They do special advisories for cases like this, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 reminder AGAIN... please try to post stuff of value. people are going to start disappearing from these threads. Hopefully, you read my reasons for "looking" at the NAM, and understanding that it is the last piece of guidance that we have just recieved. If someone is going to use the NAM as a verbatium potential track....it's fairly useless. But understanding the model's glaring, BUT CONSISTENT biases, there is value in it's discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Wow, we got a VDM out of this, defiantly Irene imminent. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 21:18Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 06 A. Time of Center Fix: 20th day of the month at 20:55:10Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14°31'N 57°46'W (14.5167N 57.7667W) B. Center Fix Location: 158 miles (255 km) to the NE (52°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 54kts (~ 62.1mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 82 nautical miles (94 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 90° at 53kts (From the E at ~ 61.0mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1006mb (29.71 inHg) - Extrapolated I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 457m (1,499ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 456m (1,496ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 1,500 feet O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 53kts (~ 61.0mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:25:20Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Thinking they go 50 or 60 mph? Would make sense to go 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Charlie did not come up the peninsula as a hurricane. It crossed from the Gulf over Orlando. We were supposed to get nailed all the way up from Sanibel to Jax, and saw not a shower or a leaf flutter here in Gainesville. It did hook right (at least more right than the posted NHC map suggested as the track). THEN we got Frances and Jeanne right over us - which more than made up for missing Mr. Charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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