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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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HPC discussion highlights the upper air changes on the 12z guidance

THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU

DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES.

WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES

CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR

WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY

INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN

CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR

WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF

ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE

PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE

CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES.

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so wierd seeing you with a new avatar......love it though! a worthy followup ;)

Thanks....L. Ontario avatar, however, is not retired!! ;) I just felt like being a "most interesting man" for awhile! ;)

Regarding 97.....Am in consensus with others in the consistant runs of the globals, having robust intensification, regardless of prior land encounters, as being a signal of "something real".....not to say the models couldn't collectively lay an egg....but once we get genesis, the interest in the latter stages of the recent model outputs, take on additional, significant value....

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HPC discussion highlights the upper air changes on the 12z guidance

THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU

DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES.

WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES

CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR

WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY

INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN

CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR

WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF

ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE

PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE

CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES.

This would signal a later N and NE curve, favoring the further S and W solutions, correct?

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The latest vis shows a nice area of elongated, organized convection, from the L. A. cyclonically arcing back toward 97, and within that, is the lower level surface wave (Tip alluded to) being drawn into the midlevel disturbance. IMO, once this elongated feature becomes "attached" to our feature of interest, we will develop a very nice main band (drawing from a long fetch of organized convection) which will essentially be not only a moisture pump into the system, but a long lasting source of vorticity to advect, right into the heart of the storm.

And outflow already looks supreme.

My fellow tropical nuts..........this is what we are all interested in!! It is time for the season to commence!! :thumbsup:

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(Disclaimer....interested in the science of it....not the devastation, or life altering potentials....)

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Interesting...there must be a non-trivial number of ensemble members that take it pretty far west.

That and the fact that some members have been weaker and further S of the Greater Antilles until near Cuba.

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So far Recon has found near 60 MPH surface winds and 1006 MB.

60mph surface winds? Thats pretty good, but I still can't see any well defined surface circulation, and the Vorticity max looks south of the Mid Level Circulation to me. If the system has a large developed wind field going over the Islands I think it may help it maintain itself better in the long run, rather than a tiny system which would stand less of a chance impacting Hispaniola.

Perhaps the large wind field is something the models are picking up on?

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The way I see it.

It could be a major Hurricane if it hits The FL Panhandle or Georgia. If it hits south Florida it will be a tropical storm because it will get shredded by Cuba. We need a center to consolidate before we can really track this thing. Hope for it either 70 miles further north or 70 miles further south than the GFS is expecting

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60mph surface winds? Thats pretty good, but I still can't see any well defined surface circulation, and the Vorticity max looks south of the Mid Level Circulation to me. If the system has a large developed wind field going over the Islands I think it may help it maintain itself better in the long run, rather than a tiny system which would stand less of a chance impacting Hispaniola.

Perhaps the large wind field is something the models are picking up on?

I bet a detailed vorticty analysis across the long convective line to the south, would show an elongated vorticity field, about to be advected/created near the main convective complex where suspected TC genesis is taking place..

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With the huge size Is it possible that the aircraft has been flying in the north Quad the whole time so far?(therefore no west winds)

if you look at the visible you can see low clouds moving ENE but way south just east of the coast of South America

at201197_hd.gif

last line of info shows winds west of do south..next set of data the key

205300 1436N 05742W 9596 00408 0057 +223 +079 188013 014 024 000 00

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Now it can finally get interesting.

It is interesting to note, however, and if anyone informed enough can enlighten me-- as it was mentioned just before-- since this wave is so large, is it possible that they will not fly south enough to find all of the winds they need? Or, no matter the size, the winds in all direction will be in a relatively small area to find...

I'm just curious with this amount of wind, and low enough pressure, if it will be classified soon as a TS.

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