Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 18Z continues the S and W shift of the TVCN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 JB wet dream? actually the most like track is between H and C, just east of FL, straight N at 80mph, then "hooking" NW into the Bite area of NY towing a 50ft storm surge along with it. yep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I know it is early but, a path like this doesn't seem out of the question. And this is what the GFS and Euro kind of have been showing. (Not intensity wise only track.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 HPC discussion highlights the upper air changes on the 12z guidance THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES. WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 With the huge size of this system, I think flooding would be epic where ever this goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 so wierd seeing you with a new avatar......love it though! a worthy followup Thanks....L. Ontario avatar, however, is not retired!! I just felt like being a "most interesting man" for awhile! Regarding 97.....Am in consensus with others in the consistant runs of the globals, having robust intensification, regardless of prior land encounters, as being a signal of "something real".....not to say the models couldn't collectively lay an egg....but once we get genesis, the interest in the latter stages of the recent model outputs, take on additional, significant value.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Recon finding 46 MPH Flight level and 40 MPH Surface winds now. Right near the new convection blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 HPC discussion highlights the upper air changes on the 12z guidance THE NEW 12Z GFS FOLLOWS ITS 00Z CONTINUITY REASONABLY WELL THRU DAY 5 ON ALL THE MAIN FEATURES. WE SEE BIGGER CHANGES FOR DAYS 6-7 AS TIMING/AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES CROP UP ACROSS CANADA. THESE CHANGES WOULD REMOVE THE POLAR WESTERLIES ACROSS SRN CANADA EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM HAVING ANY INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL SYS THREATENING THE SERN CONUS. IN FACT ALL THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS KEEP THE POLAR WESTERLIES FAR ENOUGH N ACROSS SRN CANADA THAT AFTER A PINCH OF ENERGY DROPS S INTO THE OH VLY THE FIRST PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL...IF ANY...INTERACTION OF ANY SE CONUS TROPICAL SYS LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE POLAR WESTERLIES. This would signal a later N and NE curve, favoring the further S and W solutions, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The latest vis shows a nice area of elongated, organized convection, from the L. A. cyclonically arcing back toward 97, and within that, is the lower level surface wave (Tip alluded to) being drawn into the midlevel disturbance. IMO, once this elongated feature becomes "attached" to our feature of interest, we will develop a very nice main band (drawing from a long fetch of organized convection) which will essentially be not only a moisture pump into the system, but a long lasting source of vorticity to advect, right into the heart of the storm. And outflow already looks supreme. My fellow tropical nuts..........this is what we are all interested in!! It is time for the season to commence!! . . . . (Disclaimer....interested in the science of it....not the devastation, or life altering potentials....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Recon now 46 MPH at surface and 1006.9 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This would signal a later N and NE curve, favoring the further S and W solutions, correct? It would likely mean a lesser chance of an early, sharp northeastward turn after landfall if the current timing holds. That is so far away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFDL Verbatim Folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 97L radar signature from Martinique Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 latest microwave... The clustering convection at around 15.5N is interesting, although no obvious signs of a well defined circulation yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFDL Verbatim Folks Stop hyping the storm! You know darn well that those winds are at 10 meters, so they will be much less near the surface!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 So far Recon has found near 60 MPH surface winds and 1006 MB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hmmm... Interesting...there must be a non-trivial number of ensemble members that take it pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Interesting...there must be a non-trivial number of ensemble members that take it pretty far west. That and the fact that some members have been weaker and further S of the Greater Antilles until near Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 53 kts FL lol what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The ramp up in convection is interesting. Think of we can keep it going for at least another 6 hrs we will see a defined circulation in 12-18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 So far Recon has found near 60 MPH surface winds and 1006 MB. 60mph surface winds? Thats pretty good, but I still can't see any well defined surface circulation, and the Vorticity max looks south of the Mid Level Circulation to me. If the system has a large developed wind field going over the Islands I think it may help it maintain itself better in the long run, rather than a tiny system which would stand less of a chance impacting Hispaniola. Perhaps the large wind field is something the models are picking up on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 53 kts FL lol what If that keeps up and once a circulation is found it could almost be a Cat 1 when it forms. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The way I see it. It could be a major Hurricane if it hits The FL Panhandle or Georgia. If it hits south Florida it will be a tropical storm because it will get shredded by Cuba. We need a center to consolidate before we can really track this thing. Hope for it either 70 miles further north or 70 miles further south than the GFS is expecting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 60mph surface winds? Thats pretty good, but I still can't see any well defined surface circulation, and the Vorticity max looks south of the Mid Level Circulation to me. If the system has a large developed wind field going over the Islands I think it may help it maintain itself better in the long run, rather than a tiny system which would stand less of a chance impacting Hispaniola. Perhaps the large wind field is something the models are picking up on? I bet a detailed vorticty analysis across the long convective line to the south, would show an elongated vorticity field, about to be advected/created near the main convective complex where suspected TC genesis is taking place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 With the huge size Is it possible that the aircraft has been flying in the north Quad the whole time so far?(therefore no west winds) if you look at the visible you can see low clouds moving ENE but way south just east of the coast of South America Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 AL, 97, 2011082018, , BEST, 0, 146N, 572W, 45, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 105, 0, 0, 45, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Quite the strong Invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 With the huge size Is it possible that the aircraft has been flying in the north Quad the whole time so far?(therefore no west winds) if you look at the visible you can see low clouds moving ENE but way south just east of the coast of South America last line of info shows winds west of do south..next set of data the key 205300 1436N 05742W 9596 00408 0057 +223 +079 188013 014 024 000 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Now it can finally get interesting. It is interesting to note, however, and if anyone informed enough can enlighten me-- as it was mentioned just before-- since this wave is so large, is it possible that they will not fly south enough to find all of the winds they need? Or, no matter the size, the winds in all direction will be in a relatively small area to find... I'm just curious with this amount of wind, and low enough pressure, if it will be classified soon as a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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