LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12Z EC - 969 mb near SAV at 168 hours 'Savannah Slayer' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Liking the model trends so far. In my totally uneducated guess, I'd say an Ernesto (2006) like track over Cuba and Florida. Hopefully a bit stronger than Ernesto though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Interesting, that we continue to see run after run, a strong TC emerge, even with all the dancing with the islands. Maybe evidence of superb UL environment??? Or just a figment of model resolution? Or the inability for a model to understand what historical knowledge has taught us...that a TC with a developed core suffers pretty dearly upon arrival of the elevated spires from DR, Haiti and Cuba.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hispaniola's harder to miss, though. Given the possible eventual size of this storm, I'm wagering that if this hits Hispaniola dead on and does not make it into the Gulf, it will not make LF in the US at major hurricane strength. I think at this point the most likely scenario is a Cat 1-2 hitting FL within the next 1.5 weeks. Have to agree with this. A Hispaniola direct hit, followed by anything except an open Gulf entry, makes it very unlikely that this reintensifies and strikes the U.S. coast as a major hurricane. Another possibility in light of the latest ECMWF run is that this misses FL to the east and hits GA or the Carolinas instead, giving it more time over the water. However, upper air conditions as it gains latitude may be less than ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro pushes this pretty far inland (Atlanta, Georgia) supporting the idea of a strong building ridge behind the trough. I would imagine speed and land interaction will have a big impact on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Holy crap that is a monster on the euro! Next week is definitely going to be an interesting week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's fairly expansive now, large TC in the making.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Interesting, that we continue to see run after run, a strong TC emerge, even with all the dancing with the islands. Maybe evidence of superb UL environment??? Or just a figment of model resolution? Or the inability for a model to understand what historical knowledge has taught us...that a TC with a developed core suffers pretty dearly upon arrival of the elevated spires from DR, Haiti and Cuba.... I guess a big question still is how developed will it be by the time it gets to Haiti/DR? We're only 48-60 hours from the system moving through that area, and we don't have a TD yet. It certainty would seem like becoming a major if it's a well developed core that gets disrupted by Hisp could only occur if it has a prolonged period over the Gulf, but certainly the cat 1-2 for FL being discussed would be quite plausible if conditions are as good as the models seem to think. If it was only one or two models doing this, I would be less confident. But the fact that all models are showing such intensification in my experience means they are picking on something real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's fairly expansive now, large TC in the making.. Besides the fact that the HH's haven't found a LLC yet.. Needs to consolidate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radius Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Mobile Mauler, perhaps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro pushes this pretty far inland (Atlanta, Georgia) supporting the idea of a strong building ridge behind the trough. I would imagine speed and land interaction will have a big impact on track yeah, really agree with this. Keeps it moving slowly NW to near BNA at 216 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If I missed someone already posting this apologize, but UK still farther left. Shoots the Yucatan Channel and has system N of Yucatan at 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If it was only one or two models doing this, I would be less confident. But the fact that all models are showing such intensification in my experience means they are picking on something real. Not all the models, the GFDL steadfastly refuses to even form a depression LOL. The HWRF on the other hand goes ape- 943mb in the FL straits at 126. Also, the latest Ukie is still into the GOM through the Yucatan Channel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 ...and the CMC hits Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 If I missed someone already posting this apologize, but UK still farther left. Shoots the Yucatan Channel and has system N of Yucatan at 144 hours. Common UK left bias. But wow at the Euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro would be a huge rainmaker over the SE. Big flooding potential with this one as the trough leaves it behind after it's inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Interesting, that we continue to see run after run, a strong TC emerge, even with all the dancing with the islands. Maybe evidence of superb UL environment??? Or just a figment of model resolution? Or the inability for a model to understand what historical knowledge has taught us...that a TC with a developed core suffers pretty dearly upon arrival of the elevated spires from DR, Haiti and Cuba.... so wierd seeing you with a new avatar......love it though! a worthy followup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's fairly expansive now, large TC in the making.. The "umbrella" of 97L has expanded a lot just by looking at Riptide's post. As in IMO all of the sudden pretty far west of the of the Leeward and Windward islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Latest recon message showing some threshhold winds? Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC) Transmitted: 20th day of the month at 19:11Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300) Mission Purpose: Investigate sixth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 1 Observation Number: 03 Mandatory Data... Observation Time: Saturday, 19:08Z Radar Capability: Yes Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters Coordinates: 14.5N 56.0W Location: 261 miles (421 km) to the ENE (68°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Turbulence: Light Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear Pressure Altitude: 450 meters Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 26 knots (From the SE at ~ 29.9 mph) - The above is a spot wind. - Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems. Flight Level Temperature: 23°C Flight Level Dew Point: 10°C Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Thunderstorm(s) Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1007 mb (extrapolated) Optional Data... Estimated Surface Wind: From 130° at 30 knots (From the SE at ~ 34.5 mph) Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 32 knots (~ 36.8mph) Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SE turnpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thegreatdr Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ensemble mean solutions do not tell the whole story. You need to look at the overall low pressure center distribution. The members that are more offshore with these systems will be stronger, and weigh the ensemble mean in their favor. I remember this happening with Frances in 2004. The GEFS mean showed a landfall along the Gulf coast between Mobile and Biloxi while the overall low pressure center distribution showed a center much closer to the western Florida coast and panhandle. As with anything else in life, the buyer should beware and understand what they are buying. =) 12z GFS Ensemble mean shows central Gulf coast 12z GFS Operational was very close to getting trapped by the building ridge overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 No matter what, it is going to be hard for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola to avoid flooding rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Good point thegreatdr. Thanks for that. My point is the individual ensembles are much more spread out and further west than previous run which were all clustered close to the Florida Peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ensemble mean solutions do not tell the whole story. You need to look at the overall low pressure center distribution. The members that are more offshore with these systems will be stronger, and weigh the ensemble mean in their favor. I remember this happening with Frances in 2004. The GEFS mean showed a landfall along the Gulf coast between Mobile and Biloxi while the overall low pressure center distribution showed a center much closer to the western Florida coast and panhandle. As with anything else in life, the buyer should beware and understand what they are buying. =) Excellent point. For this particular situation, its actually better to look a suite of ensembles tracks, or spagetti plots to really get a good feel for what the overall mean track is in this particular scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's an amazingly large, disorganized system, with consistently limited convection near its center. Limited shear is in it's favor and historically, the size may lean towards a more left or southern solution (cuba or Yucatan straight), and landfall in central Gulf seems reasonable. A glancing blow to Hispanola and Cuba likely which would allow development - slow and stead. It's going to be a major rainmaker - although the storm is large, Texas is likely to taste little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ensemble mean solutions do not tell the whole story. You need to look at the overall low pressure center distribution. The members that are more offshore with these systems will be stronger, and weigh the ensemble mean in their favor. I remember this happening with Frances in 2004. The GEFS mean showed a landfall along the Gulf coast between Mobile and Biloxi while the overall low pressure center distribution showed a center much closer to the western Florida coast and panhandle. As with anything else in life, the buyer should beware and understand what they are buying. =) Excellent post! I was contemplating pointing this out. Another point to add is that the background surface pressures are normally lower in the Gulf/Western Caribbean than they are in the western Atlantic east of FL. Thus, given the same number and intensity of storms in both regions, the mean ensemble SLP is going to be slightly lower in the Gulf/W. Carib than east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The mid-level circulation is well north. If the system starts to organize around that, the models will adjust 70 miles north on the next initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Is the center around that convection blob at 15 N and about 57W? Nice flare up there in the past hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 i wouldnt be surprised if this ends up being a south or north carolina storm looks to be north of where models have it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Liking the model trends so far. In my totally uneducated guess, I'd say an Ernesto (2006) like track over Cuba and Florida. Hopefully a bit stronger than Ernesto though. actually the most like track is between H and C, just east of FL, straight N at 80mph, then "hooking" NW into the Bite area of NY towing a 50ft storm surge along with it. yep - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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