cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 97L slamming on the brakes over Florida at 150... This run is slightly westward with a strengthened ridge. Couldn't be more than a 25-50 mile difference from the last run but that would be bad for the west coast of FL. Looks like a scenario that would not be good for Tampa Bay. Will just have to keep waiting and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This baby is barely crawling by 168...this would a massive rain dump for the northern half of Florida and eventually into deep south Georgia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Where it decides to make the turn NW has huge implications on landfall it seems. Just a little sooner and this ends up paralleling the east coast of Florida and lands in SC/GA. A little later and it makes it through the Florida straits and ends up at the panhandle of Florida. 12z GFS decides the run it straight up the Florida peninsula. Still a lot of time for this to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Perhaps circumstantially so for TC's in tihs particular lat/lon, I do see some similarities to Emily when her zygote was in a similar position. She too had a split vorticity field at respective levels and we can clearly see tis occurring again with 97L as it approached the Island.s. What this means for 97L's future is not entirely known... As we saw with Emily - and countless other systems in the past - these mid level reflections, while they "look" more impressive tend to not become the dominant center out in time for those systems that actually do overcome hostilities and develop. That stands to reason because meteorologically the TC model is an oceanic/atmospheric virtual couple; any mid level vorticity genesis is not part of that model. It is indeed complex however, as mid level centers some times do "mix" down and get the lower levels involved - it usually takes quite a while for that to take place however, making it probable that the llv center will succeed first once inhibitions are accounted for. ...simple terms. In about 24 to 36 hours the SAL should be removed from the equation... I believe at those times southwestern low level center is the one to key in on, not the blob of convection associated with the mid level weakly bounded vortex. Your assessment of the situation is very well laid out, IMO. I'd note that the midlevel vortex, given an amicable UL regime, can bore into lower layers in quicker fashion. Contrary to a well stacked system (which can assist in the retention of farvorable UL conditions), the UL contidions are a crap shoot for a mid-level vortex, and it's ability to induce surface LP....In the case of 97, it would appear the UL conditions are cooperating. This will also have an afftect of attracting the lower level circulation to the south into the entire tilted gyre. From there subjective arguments could be made as to what induced the "actual, vertically stacked" system....and as you laid out, both the current mid level circ. and low level circ. (though seperate at this time) are certainly both benefits to the final outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 20, 2011 Author Share Posted August 20, 2011 If true, this system is in worse shape than Emily ever was Does this have the dry air issues Emily did? Might a further SW origination point (not saying that will happen, just not dismissing the Typhoon Tip possibility out of hand) mean avoiding Hispaniola and the more mountainous Eastern part of Cuba, plus more time in the Gulf on the way to, say, Mobile, because it started further Southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 This keeps on crawling north into Georgia and the Central Carolinas...990's low over Charlotte (NC) next Monday 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 great 6 inches of rain for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Miami Masher? Charleston Chew? Pensacola Pounder? Land Lover? I'm having my doubts this will be stronger than maybe a Cat 1, in spite of the pretty good environmental conditions ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I must say...if we can ever get a LLC tacked down and incorporated into the models, then things will become more clear. Also, in my lifetime I can only think of one storm (Faye) a few years ago, that cut across Cuba and went straight up the Florida Pennisula. This whole next week is going to be fun to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The big scenario changer is if this goes west or east of Florida. That's when a Cat 2/3 becomes a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Land Lover? I'm having my doubts this will be stronger than maybe a Cat 1, in spite of the pretty good environmental conditions ahead. I am fully aware that there is no scientific basic for the statement I am about to make - but I am actually wondering if people wanting a strong 'cane should be reassured by the models' tracks over land. The odds of them being exactly right with the track at days 5-7 would seem pretty unlikely - so it will probably be over water, LOL. Seriously, though, Cuba and Flordai in particular are not very big targets from a width perspective. It would not take much of a deviation in track left or right for the center to be primarily over water. But as you say, if ends up being over land as much as some of the models show, it's hard to believe it could be a major at eventual US landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I am fully aware that there is no scientific basic for the statement I am about to make - but I am actually wondering if people wanting a strong 'cane should be reassured by the models' tracks over land. The odds of them being exactly right with the track at days 5-7 would seem pretty unlikely - so it will probably be over water, LOL. Seriously, though, Cuba and Flordai in particular are not very big targets from a width perspective. It would not take much of a deviation in track left or right for the center to be primarily over water. But as you say, if ends up being over land as much as some of the models show, it's hard to believe it could be a major at eventual US landfall. Hispaniola's harder to miss, though. Given the possible eventual size of this storm, I'm wagering that if this hits Hispaniola dead on and does not make it into the Gulf, it will not make LF in the US at major hurricane strength. I think at this point the most likely scenario is a Cat 1-2 hitting FL within the next 1.5 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Model update: CMC at 144 north of previous track a bit but still well south, missing both Hispaniola and almost all of Cuba. GFS ensemble mean- a bit west of the Op but still a fair amount of spread in the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The big scenario changer is if this goes west or east of Florida. That's when a Cat 2/3 becomes a possibility. If it moves as slow as it's poised to move it will probably upwell a bit...may only be a Cat 1 even if it sits over water if it's not moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFS ensemble does remain slightly off shore on this run. Will be an interesting next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hispaniola's harder to miss, though. Given the possible eventual size of this storm, I'm wagering that if this hits Hispaniola dead on and does not make it into the Gulf, it will not make LF in the US at major hurricane strength. I think at this point the most likely scenario is a Cat 1-2 hitting FL within the next 1.5 weeks. Also, I just realized... with any luck (if this can manage all the islands + up FL) we can maintain our record... 9/9. It'd be kinda cool to go for 10/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 look where recon is SCHEDULED to fly tommorrow 15.8 N 61'ish. yesterday that were planning on flying toward 15.3 / 57 for today. they are NOT looking south for LLC development that should be worth something here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Model update: CMC at 144 north of previous track a bit but still well south, missing both Hispaniola and almost all of Cuba. GFS ensemble mean- a bit west of the Op but still a fair amount of spread in the members. Yea looks like a noticeable shift NE comparing the 144 map from 00z to the 132 map from 12z. Gulf hit looking less likely now. Wasn't the GGEM the furthest western outlier before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean shows central Gulf coast 12z GFS Operational was very close to getting trapped by the building ridge overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Your assessment of the situation is very well laid out, IMO. I'd note that the midlevel vortex, given an amicable UL regime, can bore into lower layers in quicker fashion. Contrary to a well stacked system (which can assist in the retention of farvorable UL conditions), the UL contidions are a crap shoot for a mid-level vortex, and it's ability to induce surface LP....In the case of 97, it would appear the UL conditions are cooperating. This will also have an afftect of attracting the lower level circulation to the south into the entire tilted gyre. From there subjective arguments could be made as to what induced the "actual, vertically stacked" system....and as you laid out, both the current mid level circ. and low level circ. (though seperate at this time) are certainly both benefits to the final outcome. Agreed - some scenarios are proficient and can make those vertical integrations take place sooner - perhaps this is one of them, we'll find out. I was operating under the presumption of the standard model - how that applies to the current scenario - sure. Although, the llv center is in the last couple of hours showing deeper convection organized near its axis, while the mlv system appears to be have weakened - so we'll see. Obviously, which ever becomes dominant will also have an impact on track guidance too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z Canadian...Mobile, Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean shows central Gulf coast 12z GFS Operational was very close to getting trapped by the building ridge overhead That's the thing I really notice about both the GFS and ECMWF - they get the system up to about S FL, and then the trough over the eastern US lifts out and heights build north of it. I have seen the models, particularly the GFS, try to keep a system going slowly north in that kind of setup, when in reality the system gets left behind and potentially drifts west or west-northwest depending on the strength of the new ridge. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 FWIW both the Candian and the 0z ECMWF have a weak H5 cutoff low over ARK.. This feature is not present of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 We all know how much we have been playing the guessing game on where this thing is going. I feel for the mets at NWS local WFO's in trying to prepare forecasts this week. They have an awesome responsibility in warning the public of particular dangers. I guess my background in the broadcast realm and be responsible in relaying to the public possible dangers plays a factor in my outlook on things. Here is an example from Tampa/Ruskin office of how they are being cautious on what to include in their forecasts. I fully support all the NWS mets and hope they get the same from all of us.....They have a hard job right now. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)... A FAIRLY TYPICAL AND RATHER SIMPLISTIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE COMPLEX BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN A GENERAL EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN THOUGH MUCH OF WEEK. EXPECTING TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HAVE MAINTAIN 30/40 POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE LAST PERIOD OF THE LONG TERM. MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PENINSULA BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WILL WAIT TO ADJUST THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM TAKES BETTER SHAPE WITH BETTER SYNOPTIC CONSISTENCY FROM THE MODELS. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro is pretty far east, hugs the east coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro is pretty far east, hugs the east coast of FL windshield wiper effect continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro is pretty far east, hugs the east coast of FL Yeah, it looks to me like it's a little farther north in the formation, takes the weaker initial system across northern Hispaniola and extreme eastern Cuba, then really starts intensifying as it moves slowly NW from there toward SE/EC FL. 972 mb low near MLB at 144 hours with 500 mb heights building through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 wow. and we now have a 90% cherry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12Z EC - 969 mb near SAV at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 12Z EC - 969 mb near SAV at 168 hours Heading inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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