Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro is still pretty weak with a 1004mb low at 120 just between Jamaica and Cuba, south of the GFS for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro is still pretty weak with a 1004mb low at 120 just between Jamaica and Cuba, south of the GFS for sure.... I am wondering if maybe in this cycle run if the GFS might be the outlier, even its ensembles would argue a closer to GGEM/Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I am wondering if maybe in this cycle run if the GFS might be the outlier, even its ensembles would argue a closer to GGEM/Euro solution. Actually the Euro is only a bit farther south than the GFS, has a 996mb low near the SW FL coast at Everglades City hr 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 you mean the gfs? i dont think the euro is out yet? yeah taken fer verbatium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The model runs are always going to move slightly from run to run especially since it's still a wave. Give it a couple of days to get going and perhaps recon data too if they fly into 97. In the meantime, NWS WFO discussions are starting to ramp up caution to the public for the possibility of something coming. Mobile:WEWILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVINGWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THISSYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEALATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. /22 Tallahassee and Charleston offices are being careful in their AFD's right now. Probably a smart move. Oh NWS Tallahassee is watching it and was one of the first to have mentioned it in wednesdays overnight discussion.... I would say its still relevant AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 442 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011 THE MODELSARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE EASTERN U.S.TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWINGUPPER RIDGING TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FROM THEWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS FOR THE TRI-STATE AREAWOULD BE THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS COULD BE STEERED MORE WEST AND THENNORTHWEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...A SITUATION THAT WILL BEAR WATCHINGAS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE TROPICALATLANTIC THAT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THESOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HASCONSISTENTLY WANTED TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICALCYCLONE...AND NOW THE NEW EURO HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS...ANDDEVELOPED THE SYSTEM AS WELL. THE CURRENT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF ANYTROPICAL SYSTEM IS JUST OUTSIDE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOFOR NOW EXPECT TEMPS..ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS...TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.POPS WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL...THEN TREND UPWARDS BACK TONEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY...AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I really would like to see this storm as it would be a lucky chase because of a family vacay but i'll be on the outer banks next weekend and with every run it looks like this a no go for the eastern coast it looks like a florida peninsula to NO event if it survives the land interaction if cuts north shredarala will probably kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 UKMET is still like the CMC, way south into the Yucatan Channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I really would like to see this storm as it would be a lucky chase because of a family vacay but i'll be on the outer banks next weekend and with every run it looks like this a no go for the eastern coast it looks like a florida peninsula to NO event if it survives the land interaction if cuts north shredarala will probably kill it. Why would this happen when both models say its going to be a Florida and East coast hit? It was confirmed on the 00z models that a gulf hit is now a no-go right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 UKMET is still like the CMC, way south into the Yucatan Channel Hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Why would this happen when both models say its going to be a Florida and East coast hit? It was confirmed on the 00z models that a gulf hit is now a no-go right? A Gulf hit is a no-go now? Really? Interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Why would this happen when both models say its going to be a Florida and East coast hit? It was confirmed on the 00z models that a gulf hit is now a no-go right? If you are strictly using the GFS and only the GFS, which consequently has had several runs that have ended up in the Gulf already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Why would this happen when both models say its going to be a Florida and East coast hit? It was confirmed on the 00z models that a gulf hit is now a no-go right? You do realize we're still between 5 and 8 days from a USA landfall, depending on the track.... and there have been more than isolated notable instances where a pretty tight model consensus at 5 days has been hundreds of miles off, much less up to 8 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Interesting that 97L, 98L, and 99L have been all given a designation as 'Too Weak' by SSD at 06Z. So, if using a climatological one Dvorak T number per day intensity rate, we are still looking at 48 hours (at least) before 97L develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Rough 00Z Recap: GFS=Greater Antilles/S FL Euro=Greater Antilles/S FL HWRF=Greater Antilles CMC=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel UKMET=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel GFDL= Little development S of Greater Antilles GFS ENS=S of Hispaniola/crossing Cuba/Dry Tortugas/W Coast FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I Was referring the main models of the Euro and GFS which rarely agree. Since they agree so closely, should it not be taken seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 All this model watching for a system that hasn't consolidated yet. Models are going to swing wildly until it organizes, which may be a while yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Rough 00Z Recap: GFS=Greater Antilles/S FL Euro=Greater Antilles/S FL HWRF=Greater Antilles CMC=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel UKMET=S of Greater Antilles/Yucatan Channel GFDL= Little development S of Greater Antilles GFS ENS=S of Hispaniola/crossing Cuba/Dry Tortugas/W Coast FL Awesome summary-- thanks, Steve. I Was referring the main models of the Euro and GFS which rarely agree. Since they agree so closely, should it not be taken seriously? Right now this is an open wave without even a clear center. Until it has that, this is all voodoo. Take it all with a grain of salt. All we really know is that, more likely than not, a significant cyclone is going to make it pretty-far W into the basin. Everything else is voodoo. Pay more attention to broad trends-- not these little details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 All this model watching for a system that hasn't consolidated yet. Models are going to swing wildly until it organizes, which may be a while yet. Can a not be a these days? You're right but it kinda goes without saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Awesome summary-- thanks, Steve. Right now this is an open wave without even a clear center. Until it has that, this is all voodoo. Take it all with a grain of salt. All we really know is that, more likely than not, a significant cyclone is going to make it pretty-far W into the basin. Everything else is voodoo. Pay more attention to broad trends-- not these little details. Ok yes I agree though the NHC has stated that there is an area of low pressure along the wave. A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC IS ALONG 52W FROM 10N-18N WITH A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 14N. However it is not a tropical cyclone so somewhere in between. Do the models initialize this as a wave, a low or a tropical depression? Do they input the fact that its just a wave or do they pick a point long the wave and up it to a TD when running the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ok yes I agree though the NHC has stated that there is an area of low pressure along the wave. However it is not a tropical cyclone so somewhere in between. Do the models initialize this as a wave, a low or a tropical depression? Do they input the fact that its just a wave or do they pick a point long the wave and up it to a TD when running the models? It is not a tropical cyclone just yet-- it is an open wave. When it has a closed circulation-- however crappy and weak-- then it is declared a TD, and at that point, you can call it a cyclone. Until that time, these "center estimates" from the NHC are very rough-- which is why they round the coordinates to the nearest whole numbers. As a cyclone starts to take shape from an open wave, the lower center can consolidate somewhere quite far from the "original" center-- and as the system organizes, that center can relocate several times until it's really consolidated. And of course even small relocations of the "initial" low center can have major effects on the models-- including down-the-road questions, like, "Will this hit the E Coast, or will it hit Pensacola?" Right now, it's voodoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The long-range GFS showed a monster Hurricane Dean striking New Orleans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I'll add that RECON is scheduled to fly out and take a peek tomorrow afternoon. We'll get a better feel (and additional data from that mission for guidance) for what is really happening at that time, if they fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just for fun, the long range GFS shows 97L becoming Irene, 98L becoming Jose, 99L becoming Katia, and a strong Hurricane Lee turning west north of the islands under a ridge. All for laughs of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 last word before bed- Euro ensembles all over the place but the mean low is west of Tampa at 192 hours. Good Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
it*has*an*i Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Just for fun, the long range GFS shows 97L becoming Irene, 98L becoming Jose, 99L becoming Katia, and a strong Hurricane Lee turning west north of the islands under a ridge. All for laughs of course. I see it as 97L is Irene, 98/99L is actually one system that becomes named Jose then 90l becomes Katia as it rolls off in a few days then 91L comes off after the resolution change to make Lee. Four systems in forming in less than 2 weeks is a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 last word before bed- Euro ensembles all over the place but the mean low is west of Tampa at 192 hours. Good Night. Thanks for all the model commentary. Night-night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Euro ensemble mean brings it to about Mobile, AL but as cheeznado mentioned there's a ton of spread. Some members as far east as the Outer Banks others as far west as Galveston. All seem to show a US threat if this thing gets organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Latest GFS unchanged, same hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html A bit more convection beginning to fire; it just needs to slow down its forward motion of 20 mph in order to get its act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Still seems to be in an area of a lot of dry air http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/carb_wv_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.