lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 982mb exiting near St. Augustine at 168 Strengthening over Florida? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I gotta admit, the weenie in me is starting to get wood. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 2nd Landfall on US Soil -- S SC Hello Tybee Island =] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yeah, the global model consensus on a Hispaniola hit or very close brush to the south is strong, and we're nearing 72 hours out. If 97L tracks off of the consensus, I think it's more likely to track south and west of it, but given that we're getting closer in time, there's less and less room for significant track changes. Still, it wouldn't take much shift in the guidance to miss Hispaniola completely. Also, although the ECMWF and GFS take a very strong TC into FL after the Hispaniola/Cuba landfalls, the models have a notorious tendency to underestimate the weakening of TCs over land, so take the depictions of a post-Hispaniola uber-TC with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 NC/SC hurtyhurtz this run -- 984 in C SC/NC at 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 And then out to sea it goes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 ET/Gale for for Nantucket at 252? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical252.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Windy and wet along the coastal mid-atlantic. Looks warm-core still as it passes SE of Long Island, especially in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Yeah, the global model consensus on a Hispaniola hit or very close brush to the south is strong, and we're nearing 72 hours out. If 97L tracks off of the consensus, I think it's more likely to track south and west of it, but given that we're getting closer in time, there's less and less room for significant track changes. Still, it wouldn't take much shift in the guidance to miss Hispaniola completely. Also, although the ECMWF and GFS take a very strong TC into FL after the Hispaniola/Cuba landfalls, the models have a notorious tendency to underestimate the weakening of TCs over land, so take the depictions of a post-Hispaniola uber-TC with a grain of salt. I just have visions of Fay or Ernesto or some other junky cyclone that can't quite pull itself together after getting clobbered by Hispaniola or Cuba. I can't get my hopes up too highly if it is going to hit every darn terrain-infested island in the Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Windy and wet along the coastal mid-atlantic. Looks warm-core still as it passes SE of Long Island, especially in August. What would wind be along the ec from nj-ct with that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I just have visions of Fay or Ernesto or some other junky cyclone that can't quite pull itself together after getting clobbered by Hispaniola or Cuba. I can't get my hopes up too highly if it is going to hit every darn terrain-infested island in the Caribbean... I've been wondering. Is that a byproduct of the islands being there? It seems like a lot of times the forecast tracks just follow the islands so to speak. Basically, would the tracks still be the same if there was no land at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 What would wind be along the ec from nj-ct with that run? Looks like a minimum Hurricane/Strong Tropical storm with those barometric pressures. Probably typical gale force (30-45 mph) and tropical storm force right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 The model runs are always going to move slightly from run to run especially since it's still a wave. Give it a couple of days to get going and perhaps recon data too if they fly into 97. In the meantime, NWS WFO discussions are starting to ramp up caution to the public for the possibility of something coming. Miami :EXTENDED FORECAST...BY LATE WEEK...TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 50W LONGITUDEFOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ONTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 800 MILE EAST OF THE LESSERANTILLES. AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISFORECASTING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWESTTOWARDS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLYOF THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THISTIME...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN. PEOPLE OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TOMONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE. Melbourne:BY LATE WEEK...TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 50W LONGITUDEFORECAST TO BE IN VICINITY OF HISPANOLA THEN SOUTH OF CUBA AROUNDNEXT FRIDAY WITH A WEST TRENDING TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF BYNEXT SAT. CURRENT HPC DAY 7 POSITION NEAR THE WESTERN KEYS AS ARECURVING SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME EFFECTS ON ECFL. Tampa:HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTICALONG LATITUDE 30 RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLTHROUGH TUE. THIS RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ALOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING WEST OVER OR NEAR CUBA WED AND THU. LATESTGUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THIS LOW COULD BE IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THEEND OF THIS PERIOD. Jax:FRI...SOME OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFSENSEMBLE AND NHC/HPC COORDINATED POSITIONS HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEMENTERING THE SERN GOMEX FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVING NORTHWARD. THISWOULD LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/PCPN CHANCES DURING THE DAY OVERTHE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT 50%. Mobile:WEWILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVINGWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THISSYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEALATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. /22 Tallahassee and Charleston offices are being careful in their AFD's right now. Probably a smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks like a minimum Hurricane/Strong Tropical storm with those barometric pressures. Probably typical gale force (30-45 mph) and tropical storm force right along the coast. Thanks, if that WERE to verify, TS warnings would probaly color from Maryland to mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Let's try to keep TS warning for mass/Maryland speculation to the subforums for now. Also most of us know where to get the GFS so we prob don't need every panel here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z Canadian is still well south...SW of Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 At it's current latitude and trajectory, this one may have Hispaniola problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I've been wondering. Is that a byproduct of the islands being there? It seems like a lot of times the forecast tracks just follow the islands so to speak. Basically, would the tracks still be the same if there was no land at all? I don't think they would be the same. If anything there is a tendency for them not to hit land. see: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_mean.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z Canadian is still well south...SW of Jamaica Even though it is tough to tell on the RGEM panels, it does pass it well south of Puerto Rico at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z Canadian is still well south...SW of Jamaica Goes on to be a New Orleans hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Looks to be battling some dry air, not so severe, ala Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFE ensemble mean is west of the Op run, south of Cuba and Hispaniola then into the western Keys then Tampa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 GFE ensemble mean is west of the Op run, south of Cuba and Hispaniola then into the western Keys then Tampa Link? And new TWO has it at 70%. Aircraft going in this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 2am TWO, we seem to be off and rolling SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Link? And new TWO has it at 70%. Aircraft going in this afternoon. I am using a non-public link, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Goes on to be a New Orleans hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Those western solutions are becoming more and more scarce... locking into the FL peninsula Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I am using a non-public link, sorry Ah no problem. Wow that CMC solution is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 There continues to be a huge difference between the GFDL and HWRF- HWRF a 958MB hurricane at 84 hours, the GFDL a weak low. Euro to 60- weak low/open wave headed to Hispaniola Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Im talking about what the Euro is showing not the canadian you mean the gfs? i dont think the euro is out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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