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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Yeah, the global model consensus on a Hispaniola hit or very close brush to the south is strong, and we're nearing 72 hours out. If 97L tracks off of the consensus, I think it's more likely to track south and west of it, but given that we're getting closer in time, there's less and less room for significant track changes. Still, it wouldn't take much shift in the guidance to miss Hispaniola completely.

Also, although the ECMWF and GFS take a very strong TC into FL after the Hispaniola/Cuba landfalls, the models have a notorious tendency to underestimate the weakening of TCs over land, so take the depictions of a post-Hispaniola uber-TC with a grain of salt.

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Yeah, the global model consensus on a Hispaniola hit or very close brush to the south is strong, and we're nearing 72 hours out. If 97L tracks off of the consensus, I think it's more likely to track south and west of it, but given that we're getting closer in time, there's less and less room for significant track changes. Still, it wouldn't take much shift in the guidance to miss Hispaniola completely.

Also, although the ECMWF and GFS take a very strong TC into FL after the Hispaniola/Cuba landfalls, the models have a notorious tendency to underestimate the weakening of TCs over land, so take the depictions of a post-Hispaniola uber-TC with a grain of salt.

I just have visions of Fay or Ernesto or some other junky cyclone that can't quite pull itself together after getting clobbered by Hispaniola or Cuba. I can't get my hopes up too highly if it is going to hit every darn terrain-infested island in the Caribbean... :gun_bandana:

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I just have visions of Fay or Ernesto or some other junky cyclone that can't quite pull itself together after getting clobbered by Hispaniola or Cuba. I can't get my hopes up too highly if it is going to hit every darn terrain-infested island in the Caribbean... :gun_bandana:

I've been wondering. Is that a byproduct of the islands being there? It seems like a lot of times the forecast tracks just follow the islands so to speak.

Basically, would the tracks still be the same if there was no land at all?

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The model runs are always going to move slightly from run to run especially since it's still a wave. Give it a couple of days to get going and perhaps recon data too if they fly into 97. In the meantime, NWS WFO discussions are starting to ramp up caution to the public for the possibility of something coming.

Miami :EXTENDED FORECAST...BY LATE WEEK...TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 50W LONGITUDEFOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK...THE FORECAST WILL DEPEND ONTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 800 MILE EAST OF THE LESSERANTILLES. AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ISFORECASTING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE TO THE WEST TO NORTHWESTTOWARDS THE REGION. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLYOF THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THISTIME...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER PATTERN. PEOPLE OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TOMONITOR THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONALHURRICANE CENTER ON THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

Melbourne:BY LATE WEEK...TROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 50W LONGITUDEFORECAST TO BE IN VICINITY OF HISPANOLA THEN SOUTH OF CUBA AROUNDNEXT FRIDAY WITH A WEST TRENDING TRACK TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF BYNEXT SAT. CURRENT HPC DAY 7 POSITION NEAR THE WESTERN KEYS AS ARECURVING SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR SOME EFFECTS ON ECFL.

Tampa:HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTICALONG LATITUDE 30 RIDGES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLTHROUGH TUE. THIS RIDGE THEN BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH IN RESPONSE TO ALOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING WEST OVER OR NEAR CUBA WED AND THU. LATESTGUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THIS LOW COULD BE IN THE GULF JUST BEYOND THEEND OF THIS PERIOD.

Jax:FRI...SOME OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFSENSEMBLE AND NHC/HPC COORDINATED POSITIONS HAVE THE TROPICAL SYSTEMENTERING THE SERN GOMEX FRIDAY MORNING AND MOVING NORTHWARD. THISWOULD LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS/PCPN CHANCES DURING THE DAY OVERTHE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES CAPPED AT 50%.

Mobile:WEWILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVINGWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THISSYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEALATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. /22

Tallahassee and Charleston offices are being careful in their AFD's right now. Probably a smart move.

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Looks like a minimum Hurricane/Strong Tropical storm with those barometric pressures. Probably typical gale force (30-45 mph) and tropical storm force right along the coast.

Thanks, if that WERE to verify, TS warnings would probaly color from Maryland to mass

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I've been wondering. Is that a byproduct of the islands being there? It seems like a lot of times the forecast tracks just follow the islands so to speak.

Basically, would the tracks still be the same if there was no land at all?

I don't think they would be the same. If anything there is a tendency for them not to hit land. see:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_mean.gif

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2am TWO, we seem to be off and rolling

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE

LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...HAVE

INCREASED A BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING

INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A

TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS

AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LEEWARD

ISLANDS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY

NIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED

TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

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