HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My grandma lives in Marco Island, Florida which is located in southwestern Florida. She is only one mile from the ocean. Very worried about her already although I know the track of this potential storm is not set in stone. I am fascinated by hurricanes, but it's a bit different when you have a close family member potentially in the path. Our economy doesn't need this either. A major hurricane striking the United States could be the tipping point economically... Our feelings about it have zero impact on the cyclone's development or the model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My grandma lives in Marco Island, Florida which is located in southwestern Florida. She is only one mile from the ocean. Very worried about her already although I know the track of this potential storm is not set in stone. I am fascinated by hurricanes, but it's a bit different when you have a close family member potentially in the path. Our economy doesn't need this either. A major hurricane striking the United States could be the tipping point economically... Anybody involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and installation of all exterior products for structures residential or commercial would certainly disagree. What I would like to ask is how much a mountainous island like Hispaniola would effect a TC that dodges just barely north or south as far as COC goes? Historically is it more direct hits that confound a storm or does this include near misses but major problems with inflow / outflow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Anybody involved in the manufacturing, distribution, and installation of all exterior products for structures residential or commercial would certainly disagree. What I would like to ask is how much a mountainous island like Hispaniola would effect a TC that dodges just barely north or south as far as COC goes? Historically is it more direct hits that confound a storm or does this include near misses but major problems with inflow / outflow? All I can think of is Gustav when it clipped Cuba in 08 and ran into the Gulf a cat. 2 the whole ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 All I can think of is Gustav when it clipped Cuba in 08 and ran into the Gulf a cat. 2 the whole ride. This was the GoM surface temperature loop during Gustav's timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Perhaps you would enjoy posting in the off-topic section where such things can/want to be discussed. I accept your wisdom; thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 All I can think of is Gustav when it clipped Cuba in 08 and ran into the Gulf a cat. 2 the whole ride. Huh? Gustav entered the Gulf as a 4, weakened to a 3, and made landfall as a 2 while battling dry air and some light shear. Ike ran across pretty much the entirety of Cuba or close to it and stayed a 2 throughout the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Any thoughts on the floater? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html Looks like it is consolidating around 15-16 N. I do understand that this may be mid level or my eyes playing tricks but this is a bit further north than the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 CODE RED 60% chance now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Any thoughts on the floater? http://www.ssd.noaa....2/loop-avn.html Looks like it is consolidating around 15-16 N. I do understand that this may be mid level or my eyes playing tricks but this is a bit further north than the GFS is showing. It's difficult to discern low level turning from an IR loop... but in this case it's actually easy...and the center is not in that blob of warming convection, but further SSE, you can see the warm (gray) clouds moving counterclockwise south of the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's difficult to discern low level turning from an IR loop... but in this case it's actually easy...and the center is not in that blob of warming convection, but further SSE, you can see the warm (gray) clouds moving counterclockwise south of the convection. The issue is that the convection/MLC is not rotating around the said center of circulation, it's just continuing WNW. Hard to say what's really going on. Also, I don't think the LLC is anywhere south of 13N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It's difficult to discern low level turning from an IR loop... but in this case it's actually easy...and the center is not in that blob of warming convection, but further SSE, you can see the warm (gray) clouds moving counterclockwise south of the convection. I agree with you that the LLC is broad and a bit south of the MLC. However, I am wondering if the LLC will move towards the MLC with time. That would definitely change the track as it would be more likely to feel more effect from the EC trough. Just a thought and observations to look for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 E Coast folks really want it to feel that trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Agreed, if this develops and avoids the big islands. The mid-level windfield is already very expansive. We just need to see a sfc reflection spark up. Most models don't seem to ramp this up till 3-4 days out. Cool loop below of the current disturbance. one of the more cool loops I've seen! where did you get that? red alert btw now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I maintain that I think this system is going to be challenged until it escapes the SAL shroud that it is immersed within... The latest loop looks more cyclonic in the cloud field but this could also be incidental motion from cyclonic collapse - that sometimes take place when 6 hours of convection decays just prior to corriolis integration in time getting the gears going. When that happens though it doesn't persist and is often also only in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 E Coast folks really want it to feel that trough. Do you think it will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It sure is looking impressive this eveing Searching for the next hot tower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 one of the more cool loops I've seen! where did you get that? red alert btw now. http://spaghettimodels.com/ It's a little down the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 It sure is looking impressive this eveing Got to disagree. The past couple of hours have seen a marked decrease in convection. One cell went up near the apparent center but that too is weakening at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT RED ALERT this is an example of a useless post.. in case you were wondering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Organization has improved today, but I still don't know where the COC is located right now. To me it looks like the COC around 12N has been overtaken by the circulation around 15N, 52W. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 given the number of reports this thread is getting lately plz do several things: -remember this is going to have a lot more activity than we've seen in similar threads this year -read backwards before posting the same thing as other people -consider if you're adding anything to the thread before posting we'll all be better off following at least those if not other ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 this is an example of a useless post.. in case you were wondering if you believe it is useless (which it was, sorry), why would you quote the original post for everyone to see, instead of just deleting it, pm'ing me, and telling me not to do it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 if you believe it is useless (which it was, sorry), why would you quote the original post for everyone to see, instead of just deleting it, pm'ing me, and telling me not to do it again? to use you as an example of what not to do, since many clearly don't understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 to use you as an example of what not to do, since many clearly do not understand. yes.. but it's only one of many. there have been like 2 pages of reports on this thread today alone. i think there are other threads for general banter and/or ppl can feel free to start "micro topic" threads about the storm or otherwise. as/if this gets going it's going to tend to be a madhouse.. so it's probably good to get ready now. back to scheduled programing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 E Coast folks really want it to feel that trough. You read my mind, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ok folks, for low level turning use visible, ascat/windsat or MW...not IR, please Weak, but clearly around 13N 51W(it's huge, btw) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Ok folks, for low level turning use visible, ascat/windsat or MW...not IR, please Weak, but clearly around 13N 51W(it's huge, btw) I see a vortex around 11N (wow) but nothing at 13N, thinking that there are multiple vorticities, just like Emily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 I see a vortex around 11N (wow) but nothing at 13N, thinking that there are multiple vorticities, just like Emily. Hopefully this is clearer. One big curved arm north, one south and they meet around 14N 51W (sorry, it was 14, not 13) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 Hopefully this is clearer. One big curved arm north, one south and they meet around 14N 51W (sorry, it was 14, not 13) Perhaps best track's 13.9N wasn't so far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 20, 2011 Share Posted August 20, 2011 00z tracks...pretty good agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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