Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

If you're not from the Cape May area, why do you show that town as your location? And by the way, to any reader here; though New Jersey certainly has its drawbacks, it has many terrific beach towns such as Cape May, Point Pleasant, etc.

About 97L: while we often experience disappointing results in the tropics, we should remember there are times when these disturbances outperform. We're suddenly seeing much improvement in 97L during daylight hours; and if the diurnal effect holds true tonight, we might be floored by what we see tomorrow. Okay - the operative word is "might" but we all know the diurnal trend; especially those of us whose local radars extend into the Gulf Stream (which at times lights up like a Christmas tree.)

I started to make a post yesterday but deleted it because I don't like to post here often. My mind was on the BAM models which I believe are too often ignored. My thinking was 97L has always been about the BAMs and not the GFS or EURO. Early intensification = a few degrees to the right; late intensification = a few degrees to the left.

Empirical evidence over the years has shown us that a disturbance's future track is not so much defined by the global models as it is by the timing of intensification (a feat beyond the ability of any global model.)

No doubt, we can all extrapolate what we see on satellite tonight; with our without models.

pimp.gif

Your passion is boundless. I do live in Cape May, but I'm the only one in my family. Ah, yes....the classic stronger-right, weaker-left theory.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I started to make a post yesterday but deleted it because I don't like to post here often. My mind was on the BAM models which I believe are too often ignored. My thinking was 97L has always been about the BAMs and not the GFS or EURO. Early intensification = a few degrees to the right; late intensification = a few degrees to the left.

Empirical evidence over the years has shown us that a disturbance's future track is not so much defined by the global models as it is by the timing of intensification (a feat beyond the ability of any global model.)

No doubt, we can all extrapolate what we see on satellite tonight; with our without models.

pimp.gif

What? Okay. I dare you to explain to me how a Commodore 64 is better than...say... the current MacBook Pro.

Go.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SE of Hispanola at 78 on the 18z GFS... but its having some interaction with the island on its northern edge at 1004 MSLP

Crosses the SW corner of the island at 90-96 per the 850 vort maps -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_090l.gif

On its way into Cuba at 114 -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_114l.gif

Looks like its going to go through each island :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SE of Hispanola at 78 on the 18z GFS... but its having some interaction with the island on its northern edge at 1004 MSLP

Crosses the SW corner of the island at 90-96 per the 850 vort maps -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_090l.gif

On its way into Cuba at 114 -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_114l.gif

Looks like its going to go through each island :lol:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical132.gif

I have this staying south of Cuba so far, on the 18Z GFS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My latest thoughts on 97L... its still pretty speculative at this point, but chances are obviously increasing that we could be dealing with a tropical cyclone making landfall in the United States. The big debate right now is whether or not it catches an early weakness (like the ECWMF suggests) and turns north early before reaching the Gulf, or if the mid-level ridge can hang on just long enough to keep the storm on a more westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico.

http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/19/tropical-storm-harvey-develops-invest-97l-and-98l-churn-in-the-atlantic/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What the 18z GFS is essentially depicting is that the first weakness won't be enough to turn the system into long Peninsula of Florida. Instead we see the two mid-level ridges competing for 97L's attention towards the end of the run which will likely slow down the movement big time, while also keeping a slight westward component of motion until the next trough breaks down the ridge pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My grandma lives in Marco Island, Florida which is located in southwestern Florida. She is only one mile from the ocean. Very worried about her already although I know the track of this potential storm is not set in stone. I am fascinated by hurricanes, but it's a bit different when you have a close family member potentially in the path. Our economy doesn't need this either. A major hurricane striking the United States could be the tipping point economically...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn' it be better to discuss personal computer building in OT rather than a tropical thread?

Heaven forbid we mention anything other than the 800 different model solutions this disturbance will have over its lifetime; but I do understand...stepping outside the robotics maintained here can be disconcerting to some.

Of course I wouldn't be so bold once a raging tropical depression is declared.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Heaven forbid we mention anything other than the 800 different model solutions this disturbance will have over its lifetime; but I do understand...stepping outside the robotics maintained here can be disconcerting to some.

Of course I wouldn't be so bold once a raging tropical depression is declared.

Perhaps you would enjoy posting in the off-topic section where such things can/want to be discussed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only thing I can promise is that this won't be a microcane. Sorry Josh Microcanes aren't 1/3 the size of the Gomex and they don't show up on models 9 days in advance.

Agreed, if this develops and avoids the big islands. The mid-level windfield is already very expansive. We just need to see a sfc reflection spark up. Most models don't seem to ramp this up till 3-4 days out.

Cool loop below of the current disturbance.

latest72hrs.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...