k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Thank you for the loop but please consider not linking to Java; some of our computers are not keen on that. http://www.java.com/en/download/help/java_update.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Thank you for the loop but please consider not linking to Java; some of our computers are not keen on that. That site has no flash or javascript loop apps, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Lol that vorticity map is so accurate... if we go by where it shows Harvey than 97L must be pretty well stacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The latest NAM.. this is short range where does it go after truncation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Lol that vorticity map is so accurate... if we go by where it shows Harvey than 97L must be pretty well stacked Then check the vis loop (~12.2N 50.1W). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 where does it go after truncation? I'm not sure, I think it would probably extrapolate to skim the north coast of Hispaniola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 If you're not from the Cape May area, why do you show that town as your location? And by the way, to any reader here; though New Jersey certainly has its drawbacks, it has many terrific beach towns such as Cape May, Point Pleasant, etc. About 97L: while we often experience disappointing results in the tropics, we should remember there are times when these disturbances outperform. We're suddenly seeing much improvement in 97L during daylight hours; and if the diurnal effect holds true tonight, we might be floored by what we see tomorrow. Okay - the operative word is "might" but we all know the diurnal trend; especially those of us whose local radars extend into the Gulf Stream (which at times lights up like a Christmas tree.) I started to make a post yesterday but deleted it because I don't like to post here often. My mind was on the BAM models which I believe are too often ignored. My thinking was 97L has always been about the BAMs and not the GFS or EURO. Early intensification = a few degrees to the right; late intensification = a few degrees to the left. Empirical evidence over the years has shown us that a disturbance's future track is not so much defined by the global models as it is by the timing of intensification (a feat beyond the ability of any global model.) No doubt, we can all extrapolate what we see on satellite tonight; with our without models. Your passion is boundless. I do live in Cape May, but I'm the only one in my family. Ah, yes....the classic stronger-right, weaker-left theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I started to make a post yesterday but deleted it because I don't like to post here often. My mind was on the BAM models which I believe are too often ignored. My thinking was 97L has always been about the BAMs and not the GFS or EURO. Early intensification = a few degrees to the right; late intensification = a few degrees to the left. Empirical evidence over the years has shown us that a disturbance's future track is not so much defined by the global models as it is by the timing of intensification (a feat beyond the ability of any global model.) No doubt, we can all extrapolate what we see on satellite tonight; with our without models. What? Okay. I dare you to explain to me how a Commodore 64 is better than...say... the current MacBook Pro. Go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting that the 18z GFS would make 97L Jose and the African wave Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I have the latest Java update; but on my computer the loop image appears only in the upper left quadrant of my screen - while the flash loop appears normal. Just refresh the page, it should be ok afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just refresh the page, it should be ok afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 SE of Hispanola at 78 on the 18z GFS... but its having some interaction with the island on its northern edge at 1004 MSLP Crosses the SW corner of the island at 90-96 per the 850 vort maps -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_090l.gif On its way into Cuba at 114 -- http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_114l.gif Looks like its going to go through each island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 SE of Hispanola at 78 on the 18z GFS... but its having some interaction with the island on its northern edge at 1004 MSLP Crosses the SW corner of the island at 90-96 per the 850 vort maps -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_090l.gif On its way into Cuba at 114 -- http://www.nco.ncep....fs_85v_114l.gif Looks like its going to go through each island http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical132.gif I have this staying south of Cuba so far, on the 18Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical132.gif I have this staying south of Cuba so far, on the 18Z GFS. Same... it looks like its having interaction with Cuba though on its northern edge though.. scooting by just south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Not exactly significant interaction, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Def looks like its getting ready to cross Cuba at 150 though -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical150.gif Looks like it is on the Western side at 156 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My latest thoughts on 97L... its still pretty speculative at this point, but chances are obviously increasing that we could be dealing with a tropical cyclone making landfall in the United States. The big debate right now is whether or not it catches an early weakness (like the ECWMF suggests) and turns north early before reaching the Gulf, or if the mid-level ridge can hang on just long enough to keep the storm on a more westerly track into the Gulf of Mexico. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/08/19/tropical-storm-harvey-develops-invest-97l-and-98l-churn-in-the-atlantic/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like the West coast of FL up into the panhandle again is going to be landfall for 97L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Deepening quickly at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like the West coast of FL up into the panhandle again is going to be landfall for 97L Maybe the western Panhandle but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes a tad west of there on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Wow.... there it goes.. looks like Pensacola/Panama City going to be hurtyhurtz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 http://raleighwx.ame...tropical216.gif -- Landfall looks like near Panama City/Tallahassee http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical228.gif -- 979 mb extreme SW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It dodges most of Cuba and hispaniola this run, similar to Charly and Dennis. Only 9 more days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 What the 18z GFS is essentially depicting is that the first weakness won't be enough to turn the system into long Peninsula of Florida. Instead we see the two mid-level ridges competing for 97L's attention towards the end of the run which will likely slow down the movement big time, while also keeping a slight westward component of motion until the next trough breaks down the ridge pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The only thing I can promise is that this won't be a microcane. Sorry Josh Microcanes aren't 1/3 the size of the Gomex and they don't show up on models 9 days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 My grandma lives in Marco Island, Florida which is located in southwestern Florida. She is only one mile from the ocean. Very worried about her already although I know the track of this potential storm is not set in stone. I am fascinated by hurricanes, but it's a bit different when you have a close family member potentially in the path. Our economy doesn't need this either. A major hurricane striking the United States could be the tipping point economically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Wouldn' it be better to discuss personal computer building in OT rather than a tropical thread? Heaven forbid we mention anything other than the 800 different model solutions this disturbance will have over its lifetime; but I do understand...stepping outside the robotics maintained here can be disconcerting to some. Of course I wouldn't be so bold once a raging tropical depression is declared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Heaven forbid we mention anything other than the 800 different model solutions this disturbance will have over its lifetime; but I do understand...stepping outside the robotics maintained here can be disconcerting to some. Of course I wouldn't be so bold once a raging tropical depression is declared. Perhaps you would enjoy posting in the off-topic section where such things can/want to be discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The only thing I can promise is that this won't be a microcane. Sorry Josh Microcanes aren't 1/3 the size of the Gomex and they don't show up on models 9 days in advance. Agreed, if this develops and avoids the big islands. The mid-level windfield is already very expansive. We just need to see a sfc reflection spark up. Most models don't seem to ramp this up till 3-4 days out. Cool loop below of the current disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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