Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[johnc]

Includes Six Flags, Was called 'Great Adventures' when i went there in 8th grade on a Catholic school field trip from Amityville, NY.

It's still called Great Adventure... SF was nice enough to keep the name after buying it out.

This is their second TOR of the night.

[phil882]

The pressure continues to rise as this thing progresses northward... now hovering around the 959-960 mark. I haven't see any surface obs that support hurricane intensity in quite some time... with most of the SFMR and Dropsonde stuff supporting an intensity around 55 knots.

[dan11295]

Latest outage numbers. 2.4 Million customers total currently out

NC/VD

progress 189,795

dominion 998,392

MD/DC/DE

pepco 189,579

BGE 341,184

SMECO 102,294

Delmarva 96,137

NJ

AC Electric 111,029

First Energy 136,033

PA

PECO 21,000+

First Energy 26,942

PPL 50,302

NYC/LI

Con Edison 32,222

LI Power 84,484

CT

CL&P 25,778

[NorthNJwx]

The areas near the low center tonight have seen surprisingly light winds - starting with the Ocean City area in MD earlier and progressing through DE and now Cape May County, NJ. Gusts have been largely below tropical storm force in these areas closest to the center, which saw stronger winds much earlier. The actual peak winds (on land) are generally in Brooklyn/Queens and the northern half of the Jersey Shore right now, along with the Hampton Roads area on the backside.

Is there any explanation for this beyond poor core organization and the gradual transition to an ET cyclone? It seems that the storm's "landfall" is becoming increasingly irrelevant, other than to determine wind directions in specific areas. Peak winds are clearly displaced from the center on both sides of the storm.

[phil882]

Phil,

What do you think of the surge in NJ and NYC?

The pressure continues to gradually rise with Irene... the latest value at 959. I agree with most here that the surge threat near the coastline will be major, and at least one category stronger than would typically expect for a cat 1 hurricane. Folks in the lower part of New Jersey are going to get off easy so to speak because we are in the middle of low tide.... however as we get closer to New York that situation is going to change pretty rapidly.

Atlantic City will get their max storm surge in between high and low tide (now), but interestingly it seems that the anomaly is dropping in the most recent plot. It seems the are going to max out around 3-4 feet above normal.

Getting closer to NYC, Sandy Hook, NJ is already around 3-4 feet above normal, and I'd expect this to increase a couple more feet before the winds start to shift and decrease the total tide.

Finally, everyone is concerned with Manhattan and what type of surge they might experience. Right now it appears the Battery has also leveled off at around 3-4 feet above normal, but I'd expect that to increase a few more feet before maxing out its anomaly.

So overall... yea a 5-6 foot storm surge is going to be bad... but I don't know if it will be catastrophic. We are really getting off the hook somewhat by the fact that it looks like this system might take a more westerly track... so the winds never get to funnel NE into the inlets that you see like in the Long Island Sound or Laurence Harbor.

[phil882]

Thanks. Pretty lucky all things considered.

Still when you get a tide that is roughly double of the expected high tide, this is going to have some serious implications. Communities near the coastline are going to have pretty substantial coastal flooding. However, looking at the most recent plots you can see above, the tide anomaly (due to surge) is not going to increase substantially as the storm gets closer because the pressure gradient has continued to decrease as the storm is filling and the winds currently are not going to increase much more if any before the storm strikes. The wind direction will also be shifting from easterly to more northerly as the system approaches, which will also limit the surge potential if the storm travels west of these major inlets.

[A-L-E-X]

The pressure continues to rise as this thing progresses northward... now hovering around the 959-960 mark. I haven't see any surface obs that support hurricane intensity in quite some time... with most of the SFMR and Dropsonde stuff supporting an intensity around 55 knots.

MattNoyesNECN Matt Noyes Look up/down E.Coast-can't find a hurricane force wind? Hunters show wind on east side. First 74+ gust report MAY be NewEng.4 minutes ago

Interesting that there may be hurricane force winds further to the east.

[The Great Zo]

This is pretty par for the course though...there are plenty of times you see, say, a 80 MPH hurricane make landfall, but you never see a reporting station with over a 60 MPH sustained wind. Reporting stations are, overall, an EXTREMELY small sample of what is going on, as 2 miles down the road, you could be seeing something completely different. Remember also in this case that half the storm is still not over any sort of reporting station, so I think that to make that judgement is premature.

Remember, it is max sustained wind...in ONE point. Not the overall windfield over XXXXX square miles. If there is a single spot off shore with 80 MPH surface winds, over one minute, it is a hurricane....

This is a big problem with how the media interprets (and re-broadcasts) NHC information. When NHC reports the maximum sustained winds, that information is frequently mis-quoted as being the general "wind speed" of the storm. That misunderstanding is certainly not NHC's fault -- they obviously have a vested interest in reporting the maximum wind in a storm, while also producing maps, radii, and text products that get into more specifics for the actual overall wind structure of a cyclone (and its expected impacts on given locations). In Irene's case, at least one or two of the discussions have mentioned that the strongest winds are in the eastern part of the circulation (over water). No ob site is ever going to sample it. Might they over-estimate things at times? Sure -- it makes perfect sense, from a public service standpoint, to err on the higher side if uncertain. It also makes sense from the standpoint of imperfect observational abilities, given that it's usually a fair assumption that the strongest winds in a storm are never sampled (either directly or indirectly). Still, these adjustments seem to be usually minor (5-10 knots at most).

Media outlets reporting that Irene has "80 MPH winds" (and usually attributing this information to NHC) are missing the point. Furthermore, when the storm comes through and most locations get sustained winds in the 50-60 MPH range (at most), the public perceives that the storm was "not as bad" as was initially reported. NHC's done nothing wrong, and yet the transformation of their message serves to unfairly reduce their credibility.

Sadly, this skewering of information is also often wielded by bloggers with political agendas, who use this discrepancy to wrongfully attack NHC (or the government as a whole).

[Chicago Storm]

Landfall occuring in Atlantic City, NJ.

Pressure is up to 961mb, per the recon pass before landfall.

[Srain]

500 AM Package:

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WRAPPING INTO

MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRENE...AND THE CYCLONE IS

SLOWLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO

958 MB. BASED ON DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA SHOWING THAT SURFACE

WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

LOWERED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING

OF THE CYCLONE...THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...WITH

34-KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM NEW YORK CITY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN

NORTH CAROLINA. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE

STRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...

AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS

ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.

SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AS IRENE BECOMES A

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/16...AS IRENE CONTINUES TO

ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IRENE WILL MERGE INTO

THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER

EASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE

REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN

THE VERY SHORT TERM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED

IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH 24 HOURS.

AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE

GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET.

NOTE...MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE

SHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH

AREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE

WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE

30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE

SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT

HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.

[Bannor]

Buoy 44065, 14 miles from coast, water depth 50m :

Just as an example on the wave heights, here's a plot I saved for buoy 42035 as Ike was approaching landfall (this is purely out of interest – I'm not making any suggestions about potential damage).

[Bannor]

Buoy 44097, 33 miles from coast, water depth 49m:

[Srain]

For the record...

[A-L-E-X]

As per JConsor

Weather Underground station in Sayville, NY reported sustained winds of 76 mph and gusts of 91 mph.

http://www.wundergro...sp?ID=KNYSAYVI2

Too bad it isn't considered official.

BTW Long Beach, Howard Beach and Lower Manhattan all the way up to Wall Street have been breached for the first time since the 30s. Long Beach lifeguard tower crashed into the boardwalk, blocks of streets and highways are flooded..... all in the matter of minutes.

[Srain]

This should be the last VDM from Irene...finally...

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 28th day of the month at 12:53Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 35

Observation Number: 14

A. Time of Center Fix: 28th day of the month at 12:29:10Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 40°28'N 74°05'W (40.4667N 74.0833W) (View map)

B. Center Fix Location: 19 miles (30 km) to the SSW (208°) from New York, NY, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,742m (8,996ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the E (85°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 175° at 71kts (From the S at ~ 81.7mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 52 nautical miles (60 statute miles) to the E (88°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 965mb (28.50 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,051m (10,010ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,046m (9,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 5°C (41°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) in the northeast quadrant at 9:40:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the south quadrant at 12:34:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 13°C (55°F) which was observed 6 nautical miles to the E (90°) from the flight level center

[ocala]

This is a big problem with how the media interprets (and re-broadcasts) NHC information. When NHC reports the maximum sustained winds, that information is frequently mis-quoted as being the general "wind speed" of the storm. That misunderstanding is certainly not NHC's fault -- they obviously have a vested interest in reporting the maximum wind in a storm, while also producing maps, radii, and text products that get into more specifics for the actual overall wind structure of a cyclone (and its expected impacts on given locations). In Irene's case, at least one or two of the discussions have mentioned that the strongest winds are in the eastern part of the circulation (over water). No ob site is ever going to sample it. Might they over-estimate things at times? Sure -- it makes perfect sense, from a public service standpoint, to err on the higher side if uncertain. It also makes sense from the standpoint of imperfect observational abilities, given that it's usually a fair assumption that the strongest winds in a storm are never sampled (either directly or indirectly). Still, these adjustments seem to be usually minor (5-10 knots at most).

Media outlets reporting that Irene has "80 MPH winds" (and usually attributing this information to NHC) are missing the point. Furthermore, when the storm comes through and most locations get sustained winds in the 50-60 MPH range (at most), the public perceives that the storm was "not as bad" as was initially reported. NHC's done nothing wrong, and yet the transformation of their message serves to unfairly reduce their credibility.

Sadly, this skewering of information is also often wielded by bloggers with political agendas, who use this discrepancy to wrongfully attack NHC (or the government as a whole).

That is a fantastic assessment of media interpretation of NHC advisories. Should be distributed to all media outlets. But of course even if they read it they still wouldn't heed it. Gloom and doom means more $$$$$$$$.

[janetjanet998]

This is pretty much a dud for NYC and New jersey.....yes there will some tree damage...lots of power out and a little surge flooding

there may be moderate-major surge flooding in some areas too maybe worst in decades in places

but not near what is was forecast to be a couple of days ago...and the media hype

looks like the surge rise(from the storm) will be below Gloria in battery park peaked out around 9.5 feet total...and that around at high tide..gloria hit at low tide(9.2)

edit: fixed typo 9.5 versus 8.5

[A-L-E-X]

Statement as of 9:44 am EDT on August 28, 2011

At 8:42 am EDT this morning the tide level at The Battery reached

9.5 feet MLLW. This is the sixth highest level ever recorded at The

Battery. At 9:06 am a maximum surge of 4.5 feet occurred with this

high tide in combination with the astronomical tide.

Other notable levels reached include the top two of 11.2 feet MLLW

and 10.9 feet MLLW which occurred during the hurricane of September

1821 and hurricane Donna in 1960 respectively... and 9.6 feet MLLW

during the noreaster of December 1992.

[NorthNJwx]

This is pretty much a dud for NYC and New jersey.....yes there will some tree damage...lots of power out and a little surge flooding

there may be moderate-major surge flooding in some areas too maybe worst in decades in places

but not near what is was forecast to be a couple of days ago...and the media hype

looks like the surge will be below Gloria in battery park peak out around 8.5 feet...and that was at high tide..gloria hit at low tide(9.2)

I am hoping the "landfall" in NJ will be revised in the future. Irene was nowhere near a Cat 1 hurricane when its center moved over NJ earlier this morning; sustained wind speeds were around 20 mph (!!!) in the disjointed rain bands around the center, and there were no sustained TS force winds in the STATE - only LI/NYC was flirting with TS sustained winds then. I don't believe there was any real support for hurricane force winds over the ocean by that point, either, 100 miles east or not.

It was, any remaining tropical characteristics aside, an extratropical gale center when it crossed the coast.

And, disclaimer: I'm NOT trying to downplay any impacts of the storm, including some damage in NJ and more in NYC/LI. As we know, ET storms are often more damaging than TCs around here. But I hope it won't go down in history as an NJ hurricane landfall, because it simply was not.

[A-L-E-X]

I am hoping the "landfall" in NJ will be revised in the future. Irene was nowhere near a Cat 1 hurricane when its center moved over NJ earlier this morning; sustained wind speeds were around 20 mph (!!!) in the disjointed rain bands around the center, and there were no sustained TS force winds in the STATE - only LI/NYC was flirting with TS sustained winds then.

It was, any remaining tropical characteristics aside, an extratropical gale center when it crossed the coast.

And, disclaimer: I'm NOT trying to downplay any impacts of the storm, including some damage in NJ and more in NYC/LI. As we know, ET storms are often more damaging than TCs around here. But I hope it won't go down in history as an NJ hurricane landfall, because it was nothing near that.

What a way for NJ to get its first "hurricane" landfall since 1903 If this thing had gotten its act together further south, it could actually have been a legit hurricane up here, but its fate was pretty much sealed when it didn't intensify as it was supposed to over the warmer waters to our south. If Gloria had taken this kind of track and come in at astronomical high tide, one can only imagine what kind of surge there would have been.

[NorthNJwx]

What a way for NJ to get its first "hurricane" landfall since 1903 If this thing had gotten its act together further south, it could actually have been a legit hurricane up here, but its fate was pretty much sealed when it didn't intensify as it was supposed to over the warmer waters to our south. If Gloria had taken this kind of track and come in at astronomical high tide, one can only imagine what kind of surge there would have been.

Good points. In hindsight, the ET transition and weakening should've been more apparent (especially with the models keeping it so deep this far north, which verified to a degree even if it's as an ET cyclone). I wasn't around for Gloria, but, from everything I've looked at and read, it was definitively tropical when it hit LI. That could've certainly been the worst case scenario type tropical system had it taken an Irene track.

All this aside, though, I'm relieved to see that damage hasn't met expectations. I love powerful storms, but I never want to see more than superficial damage.

[NJHurricane]

my take....coulda been worse, was plenty bad enough....hurricane landfall designation you can argue either way, certainly kept public aware that the storm was still bringing serious impacts even after weakening.

[A-L-E-X]

Good points. In hindsight, the ET transition and weakening should've been more apparent (especially with the models keeping it so deep this far north, which verified to a degree even if it's as an ET cyclone). I wasn't around for Gloria, but, from everything I've looked at and read, it was definitively tropical when it hit LI. That could've certainly been the worst case scenario type storm had it taken an Irene track.

All this aside, though, I'm relieved to see that damage hasn't met expectations. I love powerful storms, but I never want to see more than superficial damage.

The thing about Irene that I found depressing was that almost all of the pieces were in place.... the right anomalous upper air pattern, the perfect track (heh she even missed the rugged mountains of Hispaniola, which we were all worried about), even great timing with astronomical high tides.... it was she who didn't perform up to expectations. An analogy might be a great script written by a great writer, it's perfect, but the actress botched the performance. It certainly shows how everything has to line up perfectly for it to work up here.

[salbers]

Still hard to retain strength if it hits too close to NYC, due to hugging the shoreline and the cooler SSTs near the shore. Unless the track direction was more towards due north.

[NorthNJwx]

The thing about Irene that I found depressing was that almost all of the pieces were in place.... the right anomalous upper air pattern, the perfect track (heh she even missed the rugged mountains of Hispaniola, which we were all worried about), even great timing with astronomical high tides.... it was she who didn't perform up to expectations. An analogy might be a great script written by a great writer, it's perfect, but the actress botched the performance. It certainly shows how everything has to line up perfectly for it to work up here.

Sounds right to me. If it's not the recurve, it's usually the weakening, the ET transition, etc. that foils the idea. But I think that's a good thing - if hurricanes weren't so infrequent in this part of the country, we'd be in trouble.

All I can say is that I'm very much looking forward to that first fall nor'easter, or frontal system, or whatever other type of mid-latitude cyclone decides to come our way once summer wraps up!

[A-L-E-X]

Sounds right to me, and just goes to show how everything has to come together for hurricanes to strike in this area. If it's not the recurve, it's usually the weakening, the ET transition, etc. that foils the idea. But that's a good thing - if hurricanes weren't so infrequent in this part of the country, we'd be in trouble.

All I can say is that I'm very much looking forward to that first fall nor'easter, or frontal system, or whatever other type of mid-latitude cyclone decides to come our way once summer wraps up!

I agree, for something to be truly historic, it has to be extremely difficult to accomplish. When looking at how many weather tragedies the country has seen over the last few years, we have to consider ourselves lucky. We don't get relatively frequent tragic hurricanes like the Gulf Coast does, life disrupting severe weather outbreaks like the Plains and Deep South get, or extended droughts and prolonged extreme heat like the SW or Texas does. We have just the right mix of everything to have a consistently tolerable climate and yet enough variety to not be boring. We really do take it for granted. This week we got a small taste of two very rare events for us.... a moderate earthquake and a tropical system. I think that we should be happy that it wasn't any worse than it was in either case.

[janetjanet998]

The thing that saved NYC was dry air and that ERC

Irene never got her act together over the warmer waters down south...

but I suppose a stronger storm could have changed the path too slighty

she could of easlily been a gloria but hitting at high tide and a tad west

[A-L-E-X]

The thing that saved NYC was dry air and that ERC

Irene never got her act together over the warmer waters down south...

but I suppose a stronger storm could have changed the path too slighty

she could of easlily been a gloria but hitting at high tide and a tad west

Yep, Gloria is another "near miss" for NYC, but in a different way. In that case, it hit at low tide and was just enough to the east to spare the city its worse. Although, that storm too weakened significantly upon exiting the NC coast, but was still a Cat 2 up here with 115 mph gusts east of ISP. It was supposedly a 130 mph cane just east of ACY-- although I think we can safely say that was probably not the case.

[Mallow]

Looks like there was also a huge difference in wind strength (not surprisingly) on the west vs east side of the system. Groton, CT, which is well east of the center, currently has sustained winds of 47mph, and had a gust as high as 64mph:

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KGON/2011/8/28/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[NorthNJwx]

I agree, for something to be truly historic, it has to be extremely difficult to accomplish. When looking at how many weather tragedies the country has seen over the last few years, we have to consider ourselves lucky. We don't get relatively frequent tragic hurricanes like the Gulf Coast does, life disrupting severe weather outbreaks like the Plains and Deep South get, or extended droughts and prolonged extreme heat like the SW or Texas does. We have just the right mix of everything to have a consistently tolerable climate and yet enough variety to not be boring. We really do take it for granted. This week we got a small taste of two very rare events for us.... a moderate earthquake and a tropical system. I think that we should be happy that it wasn't any worse than it was in either case.

Well said. The NYC climate is definitely underrated/under-appreciated.

The thing that saved NYC was dry air and that ERC

Irene never got her act together over the warmer waters down south...

but I suppose a stronger storm could have changed the path too slighty

she could of easlily been a gloria but hitting at high tide and a tad west

This helped out NC as well, in terms of getting a Cat 1 instead of a Cat 2-3. NC still got rocked, but seems to be doing well.