Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 check out the eye on infrared Pinhole eye on a CAT1. Looks way to small for the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 What's really troublesome is how AC & Cape May are half-way to low tide..yet their tides have barely dropped. Flood stage at AC is 6 feet....and 6.7 feet at Cape May Alarming = Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 ric got hit hard 71mph gust. my neighborhood is a mess 75-100 trees down on houses, cars, half the roads are blocked. 375,000 out of 491,000 without power. over performed here thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 KJFK 280151Z 08017G23KT 6SM RA BR FEW007 BKN011 OVC017 25/23 A2960 RMK AO2 PK WND 08026/0140 PRESFR SLP023 EVACUATING DUE TO HURRICANE IRENE LAST AUGMENTED OB UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE P0009 T02500228 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 wow..was the peak at high tide? back to the dover radar..then with the radar overdoing things the storm may look worse then it really is when it gets east of DE then it looks pretty pathetic on the infrared Bryan Norcross was just saying how ragged it looks on satellite - but also stated that Gloria and Bob looked quite ragged as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Gusts 80+ being reported in Frederick, MD from an MDDOT observation station with a maximum of 89. Having trouble believing that: http://www.wundergro...y.asp?ID=MMD050 Edit: Looks like that station was actually reporting 80+ mph gusts much of the day. Definitely an inaccurate ob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAB1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Strange storm indeed. Seems like Richmond, over 100 miles north and west of the track got at least as much wind as I did in Va. Beach 20-25 miles west of the track. My winds now are almost as strong as they've been all day with this thing pulling well away from me. Was this really a hurricane or some sort of hybrid maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I made fun of that "pinhole" eye earlier but it's persisting. this time it gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 FXCN31 CWHX 280000TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:00 PM ADT SATURDAY 27 AUGUST 2011. THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 AM ADT 1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION AT 9.00 PM ADT, HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 N AND LONGITUDE 75.6 W , ABOUT 30 NAUTICAL MILES OR 60 KM SOUTH OF WALLOPS ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS ( 130 KM/H ) AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 950 MB. IRENE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS ( 20 KM/H ). 2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND ADT MB KTS KMH AUG 27 9.00 PM 37.3N 75.6W 950 70 130 AUG 28 9.00 AM 40.1N 73.9W 954 65 120 POST-TROPICAL AUG 28 9.00 PM 43.7N 71.4W 958 60 111 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 9.00 AM 47.4N 67.7W 965 55 102 POST-TROPICAL AUG 29 9.00 PM 50.7N 62.8W 968 50 93 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 AM 53.7N 55.2W 971 45 83 POST-TROPICAL AUG 30 9.00 PM 55.6N 45.8W 974 40 74 POST-TROPICAL AUG 31 9.00 AM 56.8N 35.2W 976 40 74 POST-TROPICAL 3. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION A. ANALYSIS IRENE IS CURRENTLY MOVING BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AFTER CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. IRENE LOST A BIT OF ITS STRUCTURE OVER LAND TODAY BUT DID NOT LOSE MUCH STRENGTH. RADAR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT WHILE MUCH OF ITS SOUTHERN EYEWALL HAS ERODED AWAY, IT STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ACTUALLY DROPPED SLIGHTLY TO 950 MB AS MEASURED BY FLIGHT RECON LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR A STORM OF THIS INTENSITY, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOW A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD FROM IRENE IN ALL DIRECTIONS. IRENE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS (20 KM/H). B. PROGNOSTIC SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS IRENE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH. IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS EAST OF VIRGINIA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND TRANSITIONING OF IRENE INTO A POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. IRENE IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE ENTERING CANADIAN TERRITORY. HOWEVER, HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER LAND MAY EXIST WITH THE STORM EVEN AS IT BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE IMPACTS OF IRENE AS IT APPROACHES CANADIAN TERRITORY WILL INCLUDE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LEFT OF TRACK AND GUSTY WINDS RIGHT OF TRACK. DUE TO SPRING TIDES, HEAVY POUNDING SURF AND STORM SURGE, THERE MAY BE SOME COASTAL IMPACTS ALONG SHORELINES CLOSE AND IMMEDIATELY RIGHT OF IRENE'S TRACK. LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SOUTH FACING SHORELINES OF NOVA SCOTIA LATER TODAY. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT IF IRENE GETS HEAVILY SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING DISPLACED FROM THE DEEPER CLOUD, THE FORECAST TRACK MAY SHIFT EASTWARD. C. PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM) TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW 28/00Z 250 250 150 125 125 125 90 65 75 75 35 30 28/12Z 250 250 150 125 115 115 80 65 45 45 20 20 29/00Z 250 250 150 125 95 105 55 45 0 0 0 0 29/12Z 250 290 125 100 60 90 25 25 0 0 0 0 30/00Z 250 320 80 75 20 40 5 5 0 0 0 0 30/12Z 250 330 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/00Z 250 315 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 31/12Z 250 285 75 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 END/BORGEL/FOGARTY/COUTURIER http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/track_e.html the track call seems quite similar to the NHC on this. but Environment Canada is getting quite aggressive with the call for the extra-tropical transformation process to start just south of NYC, isn't it? NHC's not calling for the transformation to start until later tomorrow I estimate past the Berkshires. why do you think they'd disagree by as much as 18 hours on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I made fun of that "pinhole" eye earlier but it's persisting. this time it gets To bad the actual surface center is located further south and west from the "eye feature" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Gusts 80+ being reported in Frederick, MD from an MDDOT observation station with a maximum of 89. Having trouble believing that: http://www.wundergro...y.asp?ID=MMD050 Edit: Looks like that station was actually reporting 80+ mph gusts much of the day. Definitely an inaccurate ob. Is That at Barddok heights, I am not feeling not feeling anything more than 30Mph winds, but I"ll drive up there and check. Edit: Not on Braddock heights and it's a mile from FDK which is gusting to 35, definitely a false reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 New advisory: no change???? WTF???? This is nuts. They should have at least lowered it to 75mph. There has not been a hurricane force sustained wind since this AM. No changes to the warnings- hurricane warnings still in eastern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It already looks like it's transitioning to extra-tropical. I suppose it won't technically be fully ET until it reaches northern new england and begins to interact w/ the incoming trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 New advisory: no change???? WTF???? This is nuts. They should have at least lowered it to 75mph. There has not been a hurricane force sustained wind since this AM. No changes to the warnings- hurricane warnings still in eastern New England? Agreed. But obviously they don't want people further North to let their guard down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Agreed. But obviously they don't want people further North to let their guard down. They know it'll reorganize again once it gets back over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 hurricane force winds 125 miles from the center now? EH????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 New advisory: no change???? WTF???? This is nuts. They should have at least lowered it to 75mph. There has not been a hurricane force sustained wind since this AM. No changes to the warnings- hurricane warnings still in eastern New England? I hear there is an anti-NWS/NOAA bandwagon...there might still be a seat for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I hear there is an anti-NWS/NOAA bandwagon...there might still be a seat for you? I praise them when they deserve it and bash them when they deserve it. NHC has always had a overly cautious M.O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 000WTNT44 KNHC 280257TCDAT4HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0920111100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUTTHE RADAR DEPICTION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIRFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THISEVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDSOF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEINGMAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THEWIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT ANUNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/14...AND IRENE REMAINS ONTRACK. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDAHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SKIRT THEMID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVERNEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER IRENE BECOMES APOST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULDGRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVESINTO THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK ISJUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN THEMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALLOCCURS ON LONG ISLAND...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTWEAKENING OF MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGEWIND FIELD OF IRENE...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUTTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TOBRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINEDHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASESHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS IRENE MOVES THROUGHAREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCEWINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS. WINDS AT THE30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THESURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENTHIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 28/0300Z 37.3N 75.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 39.8N 74.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 44.0N 71.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/1200Z 48.5N 67.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 30/0000Z 52.4N 62.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 31/0000Z 57.7N 48.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 01/0000Z 60.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP120H 02/0000Z 61.2N 24.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP$FORECASTER STEWART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It already looks like it's transitioning to extra-tropical. I suppose it won't technically be fully ET until it reaches northern new england and begins to interact w/ the incoming trough. Saw a nice water vapor image while ago of the entire western Atlantic.......could see the moisture transport all the way from deep in the tropics with a huge dry slot wrapping up into the SE side of the hurricane. Definitely looks more like a major nor easter than a tropical system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I praise them when they deserve it and bash them when they deserve it. NHC has always had a overly cautious M.O. I would think that when Irene goes in the books the data will be properly analyzed and she will not go in as a cane into NJ, NY, and beyond. For now, probably just best to keep it where its at for the general population even though most here don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I would think that when Irene goes in the books the data will be properly analyzed and she will not go in as a cane into NJ, NY, and beyond. For now, probably just best to keep it where its at for the general population even though most here don't believe it. the 11pm discussion was really interestingly passive aggressive towards itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I praise them when they deserve it and bash them when they deserve it. NHC has always had a overly cautious M.O. As someone who holds no accountability in the situation...I commend you (just in case, #sarcasm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 As someone who holds no accountability in the situation...I commend you (just in case, #sarcasm). So do you think there should be hurricane warnings in eastern New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 So do you think there should be hurricane warnings in eastern New England? from a meteorological or a sociological perspective? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 So do you think there should be hurricane warnings in eastern New England? I was just making the point that you hold neither the expertise or the position to make that call...hence your only voice...a wx BB? I'd agree probably not...but i'm not a forecaster either...i'm one of those stupid PhDs that can't forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Strange storm indeed. Seems like Richmond, over 100 miles north and west of the track got at least as much wind as I did in Va. Beach 20-25 miles west of the track. My winds now are almost as strong as they've been all day with this thing pulling well away from me. Was this really a hurricane or some sort of hybrid maybe. Even down here on Cape Fear, N.C. the back side (which lasted forever and was very far from storm center) was the most potent (hours and hours of high winds.) Odd storm indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Any thoughts on why the heaviest bands appear to be far northwest of storm into southeastern PA? Dry air getting pulled into southern quadrants? There's actually a significant dry area swinging moving into southern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I was just making the point that you hold neither the expertise or the position to make that call...hence your only voice...a wx BB? I'd agree probably not...but i'm not a forecaster either...i'm one of those stupid PhDs that can't forecast.... I have been a professional national forecaster for 30 years, and I stand by my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.