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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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For those interested, I have setup a streaming camera at www.kingsparkweather.com/wxsnowcam.php and also have a roof mounted camera facing NNE that puts up still images every minute. www.kingsparkweather.com/cams.php . The still cam runs sunup till sundown. The streaming camera will be up 24 hours as long as power holds out.

Thanks!

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If you look at the IR and compare it to the radar, it seems like the mid-level center and low level center's are starting to decouple due to shear and land interaction. I expect further weakening in the next 24 hours, and remain pessimistic Irene will be able to make its second landfall as a hurricane.

post-1749-0-20787200-1314485946.gif

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If you look at the IR and compare it to the radar, it seems like the mid-level center and low level center's are starting to decouple due to shear and land interaction. I expect further weakening in the next 24 hours, and remain pessimistic Irene will be able to make its second landfall as a hurricane.

post-1749-0-20787200-1314485946.gif

Good objective call in my opinion.

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TCs almost always start to look like that as they gain latitude and start undergoing ET transition. Irene, as suggested by the forecast models, and noted by several posters on this board, may actually stay almost steady state in strength due to baroclinic processes.

Up to 25 m/s winds (~60 mph), and gales over a wide area, it is still a big deal, even if it doesn't look like a classic TC in the tropics.

GFSSF_NE2011082718F024.gif

post-138-0-28983100-1314488844.jpg

post-138-0-57908100-1314488852.gif

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Anyone wishing for a monster storm please disregard this post. I have a question for the rest of you.

I am sincerely curious, what do you tihnk of the strong kicker that seems to be rushing through Ohio and Indiana area toward the backside of Irene? Seems to me when I look at 00z positions of features on the models that this was prehaps underestimated or mis-timed. Perhaps the large circulation of Irene is pulling this in and amounting to her own end in that way?

First, look at this loop and what is going on to the west of Irene very quickly now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-vis.html

Then watch this loop and note how the solid rain area on the west side in VA and NC is eroding to the east much faster than the center of Irene is moving away from the coast.

Is it possible that she is about to get a big boot that is not exactly part of the plan? I humbly ask this question, and I am not trying to tell anybody anytihng. If you are hoping and praying for the big Cat 4, please skip over this and move on to the next page.

http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php

Kind of hard to doubt the models and high confidence tracks, but where is this going? Looks to me like the precip might be done in NC and much of VA soon....and just a remote shot that this is about to eject Irene out with a boot! Any professional thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

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Anyone wishing for a monster storm please disregard this post. I have a question for the rest of you.

I am sincerely curious, what do you tihnk of the strong kicker that seems to be rushing through Ohio and Indiana area toward the backside of Irene? Seems to me when I look at 00z positions of features on the models that this was prehaps underestimated or mis-timed. Perhaps the large circulation of Irene is pulling this in and amounting to her own end in that way?

First, look at this loop and what is going on to the west of Irene very quickly now.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/products/radarse/radarloop.htm

Then watch this loop and note how the solid rain area on the west side in VA and NC is eroding to the east much faster than the center of Irene is moving away from the coast.

Is it possible that she is about to get a big boot that is not exactly part of the plan? I humbly ask this question, and I am not trying to tell anybody anytihng. If you are hoping and praying for the big Cat 4, please skip over this and move on to the next page.

http://radar.weather...theast_loop.php

Kind of hard to doubt the models and high confidence tracks, but where is this going? Looks to me like the precip might be done in NC and much of VA soon....and just a remote shot that this is about to eject Irene out with a boot! Any professional thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

I had been saying I thought Irene would come in over LI more east of where many had expected but I abandoned that idea now about 12 hours ago thinking there is no way all the models could be wrong at this point. We'll just have to nowcast at this point, the center is moving NNE but it will have to job quite a bit to come in anywhere east of western LI.

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I had been saying I thought Irene would come in over LI more east of where many had expected but I abandoned that idea now about 12 hours ago thinking there is no way all the models could be wrong at this point. We'll just have to nowcast at this point, the center is moving NNE but it will have to job quite a bit to come in anywhere east of western LI.

Agree with your farther east track from before, and your assessment here.

And btw, my first link of Albany radar was incrorrect link, I meant to post the visible loop from NOAA of the eastern USA there, so I edited and fixed, but you might have to reload the page to see the correct link. Sorry!

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Holding steady for the time pressure wise, also developed a small but half opened eye.

000

URNT12 KNHC 272354

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 27/23:40:40Z

B. 36 deg 38 min N

075 deg 44 min W

C. 700 mb 2664 m

D. 60 kt

E. 125 deg 86 nm

F. 208 deg 74 kt

G. 123 deg 64 nm

H. 951 mb

I. 11 C / 3056 m

J. 14 C / 3061 m

K. 13 C / NA

L. Open E-S

M. C9

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 06

MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 23:23:10Z

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It's arguing against/mocking a strawman that doesn't exist.

Somebody else trying to prove they're the coolest person in the room because they're predicting drastic weakening, or a track much further east than NHC.

ahh so sorry, I was being facetious with that strawman that doesn't exist. Thought that'd be pretty obvious to everyone. And in fact this petty squabbling over noghingness is exactly what i was trying to avoid, and nobody is answering what I though was a solid question on the synoptic situation. But hey I do this for a living so I know better than to get my feelings hurt over the little stuff.

So PLEASE if you have nothing to say about the meteorology of it, leave it alone!

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ahh so sorry, I was being facetious with that strawman that doesn't exist. Thought that'd be pretty obvious to everyone. And in fact this petty squabbling over noghingness is exactly what i was trying to avoid, and nobody is answering what I though was a solid question on the synoptic situation. But hey I do this for a living so I know better than to get my feelings hurt over the little stuff.

So PLEASE if you have nothing to say about the meteorology of it, leave it alone!

Dry air is going to be a major issue for Irene from this point forward. Just look at the dewpoints in central and western North Carolina, like in Charlotte. Around 59 or 60. That's very dry air being entrained into this thing now.  I think that's one reason why the western edge of the rain shield is eroding so quickly.

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Dry air is going to be a major issue for Irene from this point forward. Just look at the dewpoints in central and western North Carolina, like in Charlotte. Around 59 or 60. That's very dry air being entrained into this thing now.  I think that's one reason why the western edge of the rain shield is eroding so quickly.

subsidence

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