Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Riptide]

This might be the first time in the history of 97L that the 12z and 0z Euro agree on a general track area and intensity. Probably reaching a consensus soon.

12z Euro yesterday had this going into the Gulf.

[Cheeznado]

Euro track is what I call a Kamikaze storm, it seeks out as much land as it can, Hispaniola, Cuba and then the whole length of Florida.

[Cheeznado]

FWIW Ukie is in thru 144, looks like the CMC. Weak system right through the Caribbean missing all land and towards the Yucatan Channel as it begins to deepen.

[yoda]

FWIW Ukie is in thru 144, looks like the CMC. Weak system right through the Caribbean missing all land and towards the Yucatan Channel as it begins to deepen.

So looks like we have 2 camps here

GFS/EURO -- FL is the target

UKIE/CMC -- W GOM is the target

[Cheeznado]

Yikes.

This is from yesterday

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Yikes.

Old... you need to refresh your browser cache.

In other news, the 12Z Euro did bump a bit to the left, as expected, but what was not expected is that the bump wasn't nearly as big as previous days.

This is interesting, and it looks like we may be consolidating on an E Gulf solution.

[Cheeznado]

Though the tracks are a bit different the Euro and GFS are rather scary for potential flooding- both trap the storm in the SE, kind of like an Alberto scenario...maybe "drought to deluge"?

[EasternUSWX]

Old... you need to refresh your browser cache.

In other news, the 12Z Euro did bump a bit to the left, as expected, but what was not expected is that the bump wasn't nearly as big as previous days.

This is interesting, and it looks like we may be consolidating on an E Gulf solution.

Hmm I am seeing the same image.

[atownwxwatcher]

Hmm I am seeing the same image.

At 192 I have it on the eastern side of Northern Central Florida which is what the image you posted shows!

[wxsmwhrms]

I don't think now is the time to spend much time worrying about this system moving across Hispaniola, Cuba and FL. The models are still evolving in their tracks and it does not take much deviation to miss those relatively small targets. Here is what I am taking out of the last two days of runs:

• A track significantly north of the Islands seems unlikely.
• The models seem to be honing in on a track that goes near or south of the Greater Antilles, and then toward FL or the eastern Gulf.
• Conditions should be extremely favorable for development W of about 75W. Even the operational ECMWF which has this system over so much land continues to deepen the system, telling me the upper conditions are forecast to be highly favorable. There are examples of system which have went right over Hispaniola and gotten their acts back together into very formidable systems when the other conditions were prime. The GFS and ECMWF seem to think that will be the case with 97L.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Hmm I am seeing the same image.

Thanks for editing your post!

[EasternUSWX]

Thanks for editing your post!

I didn't edit my post. Maybe you image was lagging behind on here or something. I seen the same image the whole time.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Though the tracks are a bit different the Euro and GFS are rather scary for potential flooding- both trap the storm in the SE, kind of like an Alberto scenario...maybe "drought to deluge"?

As long as it doesn't get trapped over Kentuckiana... I don't need a flooded basement like I had last spring.

With that said, hopefully it does bring enough rain to GA and other parts of the SE that desperately need it.

[Mencken_Fan]

Over a week away, I still would not trust models too much even if it was a TD / TS already. But yeah this makes the level of trust even less.

The models are lottery ticket dispensers.....At 10 days out, we all have a chance of cashing in; but as the days pass, more and more of us begin tossing our tickets into the trash bin.

Ain't life a hoot?

P.S. I know this is off topic and there's another thread for it, but I just gotta share this cool local video taken a few miles from my home.

[CUmet]

I don't think now is the time to spend much time worrying about this system moving across Hispaniola, Cuba and FL. The models are still evolving in their tracks and it does not take much deviation to miss those relatively small targets. Here is what I am taking out of the last two days of runs:

• A track significantly north of the Islands seems unlikely.
• The models seem to be honing in on a track that goes near or south of the Greater Antilles, and then toward FL or the eastern Gulf.
• Conditions should be extremely favorable for development W of about 75W. Even the operational ECMWF which has this system over so much land continues to deepen the system, telling me the upper conditions are forecast to be highly favorable. There are examples of system which have went right over Hispaniola and gotten their acts back together into very formidable systems when the other conditions were prime. The GFS and ECMWF seem to think that will be the case with 97L.

I agree completely with the first two bullet points. Regarding the third, there have been TCs in the past that have recovered well from Hispaniola/Cuba hits, and the environment conditions ahead for 97L are favorable. But if this goes into South FL for instance (as the last couple ECMWF runs have shown), it just won't have enough time to recover regardless of how favorable conditions are...think Ernesto 2006 or Fay 2008. On the other hand, if it gets into the central Gulf after the island strikes, it'll have plenty of time. If this escapes Hispaniola and most of Cuba to the south, this is very likely to become a powerful hurricane.

[Mencken_Fan]

This might be the first time in the history of 97L that the 12z and 0z Euro agree on a general track area and intensity. Probably reaching a consensus soon.

12z Euro yesterday had this going into the Gulf.

Models will come around to a consensus only after they have some "meat" to grab on to. Until then, it's only a coincidence.

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't think now is the time to spend much time worrying about this system moving across Hispaniola, Cuba and FL. The models are still evolving in their tracks and it does not take much deviation to miss those relatively small targets. Here is what I am taking out of the last two days of runs:

• A track significantly north of the Islands seems unlikely.
• The models seem to be honing in on a track that goes near or south of the Greater Antilles, and then toward FL or the eastern Gulf.
• Conditions should be extremely favorable for development W of about 75W. Even the operational ECMWF which has this system over so much land continues to deepen the system, telling me the upper conditions are forecast to be highly favorable. There are examples of system which have went right over Hispaniola and gotten their acts back together into very formidable systems when the other conditions were prime. The GFS and ECMWF seem to think that will be the case with 97L.

Thanks for this great summary of the key points here.

P.S. The fact that CUmet agrees with it is an added bonus.

[usedtobe]

I agree completely with the first two bullet points. Regarding the third, there have been TCs in the past that have recovered well from Hispaniola/Cuba hits, and the environment conditions ahead for 97L are favorable. But if this goes into South FL for instance (as the last couple ECMWF runs have shown), it just won't have enough time to recover regardless of how favorable conditions are...think Ernesto 2006 or Fay 2008. On the other hand, if it gets into the central Gulf after the island strikes, it'll have plenty of time. If this escapes Hispaniola and most of Cuba to the south, this is very likely to become a powerful hurricane.

I agree but for south Florida such a "hit" would be a big plus. Lake O is still low and could use the water.

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro does show the ridge still influencing it pushing it NW to NNW from the Upper Keys into Central Georgia. Interesting few days coming up.

[Riptide]

Models will come around to a consensus only after they have some "meat" to grab on to. Until then, it's only a coincidence.

The meat is cooking.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

The meat is cooking.

This is going to be borderline cherry at 8 PM.

[Bozart]

Interesting note in ILM's afternoon AFD:

GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FEATURE AND ITS CONDITION THINK THE OCCASIONAL EAST COAST SOLUTION SHOW BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT BELIEVABLE. FOR THIS TO HAPPEN THE STORM WOULD NEED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

[shaggy]

This is going to be borderline cherry at 8 PM.

It seems to have made decent headway today. Most of the convection is at or above 14N also and really is starting to look better.

[Ivanhater]

FWIW 12z GFS Ensemble mean...I would imagine quite a few individual GFS members show quite a beast in the Gulf with this signature

[MarkSC]

The sharp NNW to N angle of attack advertised by the models would make this storm a bear to forecast if it panned out. The cone would extend from NC to LA.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Interesting note in ILM's afternoon AFD:

GIVEN THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE FEATURE AND ITS CONDITION THINK THE OCCASIONAL EAST COAST SOLUTION SHOW BY SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOT BELIEVABLE. FOR THIS TO HAPPEN THE STORM WOULD NEED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Totally agree with them... that and the fact that the east coast solutions have seem, for the most part, to be fluky outliers when looking at all of the ensemble means, etc.... this is most likely headed for a Florida/eastern Gulf solution.

[HurricaneJosh]

Totally agree with them... that and the fact that the east coast solutions have seem, for the most part, to be fluky outliers when looking at all of the ensemble means, etc.... this is most likely headed for a Florida/eastern Gulf solution.

The GFS seems to have stabilized around an E-Gulf hit in the last several runs.

[dizzy9479]

This buoy might be interesting to observe as 97L passes close to it. Winds have veered around to the NNE from ENE earlier, and the pressure is 1008.8 mb and dropping.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040

[HurricaneJosh]

Updated GFS from Gawx a few days ago

Updated GFS!

06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast

12Z Mon: central LA 8/30

18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8

00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27

06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28

12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28

18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8

00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27

06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26

12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27

18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25

00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27

06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27

12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27

18z Thur: Houston 8/30

00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29

06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28

12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29

I just want to bump this because I think it's very relevant and interesting.

Ivanhater, thanks for keeping this little chart going. Good stuff.

[wxsmwhrms]

I agree completely with the first two bullet points. Regarding the third, there have been TCs in the past that have recovered well from Hispaniola/Cuba hits, and the environment conditions ahead for 97L are favorable. But if this goes into South FL for instance (as the last couple ECMWF runs have shown), it just won't have enough time to recover regardless of how favorable conditions are...think Ernesto 2006 or Fay 2008. On the other hand, if it gets into the central Gulf after the island strikes, it'll have plenty of time. If this escapes Hispaniola and most of Cuba to the south, this is very likely to become a powerful hurricane.

No disagreement at all with this. Obviously if it goes over as much land as the 12Z op ECMWF shows, it's very hard to see it becoming an intense hurricane. My point just was that just because it goes over Hispaniola doesn't necessarily mean complete death. I know we joke about Shredderola and it makes one feel like it's a foregone conclusion if it hits there it's toast. My point just was that if conditions are very favorable, as the models seem to indicate in this instance, recovery can occur and has ocurred in the past if it can get back over some high octane water for a time. Allen, Baker, Georges, Frederic, Jeanne, Gustav are all examples of hurricanes that hit Hispaniola and then once again became potent systems. I realize there are plenty of examples of systems that did not as well - just trying to illustrate the possibilities.