philly/nyc 12z model suite

[Analog96]

Could you imagine what kind of winter we would be having with this kind of NAO and a weak la nina or weak el nino?

I believe we would be having 1995-96.

[tornadojay]

Isnt this normal for a neg AO signal, Jay? Much like what we had last winter-- the most severe negative anomalies are further south. Of course, I would gladly trade severe cold in favor of snow.....

yea.. all of the airmasses get juxtaposed into very odd positions. It'll be interesting if Florida has a winter like they did last year.. that was epic for them last season.

[atownwxwatcher]

HPC not making it seem like just a cold front passing thru the region...

12Z MODELS:

DETERMINISTIC 12Z/06 GUIDANCE IS STILL ON TRACK IN MOVING A

WEAKENING STORM ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY/GREAT LAKES THU-SAT....AND

WITH DEVELOPING A NEW MAJOR ERN CONUS STORM NEXT WEEKEND. BY SUN

DAY 6...THE GFS IS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS

WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE SLOW SIDE. ECMWF WAS FARTHER N WITH THE

PRIMARY LOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND

NOT QUITE AS FAR E AS THE GFS WITH THE SECONDARY CENTER DEVELOPING

DAY 6 VICINITY OF VA/NC. I WILL NUDGE THE DAY 6 FINAL LOW POSITION

JUST A TAD TO THE E OVER KY. THIS SYS WILL BE A MAJOR WEATHER

PRODUCER AS SYNOPTIC HEAVY SNOWFALL NEXT WEEKEND IN THE GREAT

LAKES LAKES REGION GIVES WAY TO MORE EFFECT SN BY DAY 7. FARTHER

S...SN MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO SE NEW

ENG BEFORE QUICKLY CHANGING BACK TO SN OVER THE

APPALACHIANS/NY/INTERIOR NEW ENG AS THE SYS MOVES FROM THE OH VLY

INTO NY STATE. WHILE SOME HEAVY SN IS EXPECTED TO THE LEFT OF THE

STORM TRACK...PERHAPS EVEN MORE IMPORTANT WILL BE THE DANGEROUS

WIND CHILLS THAT WILL HOWL IN ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS E OF THE MS

RIVER BEHIND THE STORM. FURTHERMORE THERE IS A RISK OF SOME NEAR

RECORD LOW TEMPS DAMAGING CITRUS CROPS IN FL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Absolute Humidity]

Well, it would be like last year.

Perhaps 1995 1996, weak nina, but I believe ENSO's lag effect is 30 to 60 days?

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

That is just STUPID cold on the backside.

[MJO812]

12z Euro Ensemble

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS144.gif

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS168.gif

[MJO812]

12z GGEM ensemble mean

[benfica356]

that looks like a weaker version of '96 haha at least first image. And here's from steve's twitter: nynjpaweather Interesting note, the ECMWF Ensemble guidance has a faster transition to the coast and is colder overall for Sunday into Monday.

[LetItSnowInPhilly]

There's still a lot of flip-flopping with the models....chances are higher for an inland track but its still a threat worth watching.

[Kaner587]

I think what can be said today about the model trends is that we may be looking at more of a secondary development scenario which can be quite good for those above 40N. Also the 12z GFS and EURO both hinted at trying to nudge the -NAO westward thus allowing the psuedo 50/50 to hold in place longer and for all we know if this trend continue could prevent a cutting storm altogether and lead more to this secondary development scenario. Either way it is looking a lot worse than 2 or 3 days ago but better than yesterday (IMO)

[Nikolai]

What might make the upcoming threat more interesting is the possibility that what happened last time happens again, that being a more prevalent -NAO as guidance gets closer. As the last clipper came closer on guidance, it was shunted further and further south--obviously bad for us. Should the -NAO become more impressive and the 50/50 low stronger, the same thing could happen, but actually in our favor this time. Just something to consider.

[Kaner587]

What might make the upcoming threat more interesting is the possibility that what happened last time happens again, that being a more prevalent -NAO as guidance gets closer. As the last clipper came closer on guidance, it was shunted further and further south--obviously bad for us. Should the -NAO become more impressive and the 50/50 low stronger, the same thing could happen, but actually in our favor this time. Just something to consider.

right on...this was discussed as soon as the models starting showing cutters but was mostly ignored because of the unanimous support for a non-coastal significant low. The aspect of this situation that worries me is that by this time last week with the upcoming "threats" the models had already noticed the stronger block and confluence and adjusted south and less amplified. We have obviously not seen that YET and alluding to my post above this may start to happen if they trends at 12z are realized. I'm not getting my hopes up because it just seems like there is a lot to overcome but as it is important to point out, we are still 5-7 days out and things are not going to be 100% correctly modeled at this stage.

[MJO812]

Precip amounts on the 12z GGEM ensemble mean.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.html?Hour=168&Day=0&RunTime=12&Type=pcp12

[Nikolai]

right on...this was discussed as soon as the models starting showing cutters but was mostly ignored because of the unanimous support for a non-coastal significant low. The aspect of this situation that worries me is that by this time last week with the upcoming "threats" the models had already noticed the stronger block and confluence and adjusted south and less amplified. We have obviously not seen that YET and alluding to my post above this may start to happen if they trends at 12z are realized. I'm not getting my hopes up because it just seems like there is a lot to overcome but as it is important to point out, we are still 5-7 days out and things are not going to be 100% correctly modeled at this stage.

Not true, actually. The run of the EURO that showed a major hit for DC-BOS had the threat in the 144ish hour range, fairly similar to where we are right now. Even the NAM had an impressive event as it came within its time frame for the DC area. Wait another day or two and we'll see where we stand--I have a feeling people will be happier than right now, and the event will increasingly look like a mixed bag rather than a rainstorm, possibly like 12/19/08.

[isnice]

Is it safe to say that ALL of the ensembles show the secondary low tracking just slightly offshore? Still rain for the cities of course, but maybe the north and west burbs north of I-80 could fare out pretty well? Consensus is secondary low development, it's just a matter of where for the OPs.

[Kaner587]

Not true, actually. The run of the EURO that showed a major hit for DC-BOS had the threat in the 144ish hour range, fairly similar to where we are right now. Even the NAM had an impressive event as it came within its time frame for the DC area. Wait another day or two and we'll see where we stand--I have a feeling people will be happier than right now, and the event will increasingly look like a mixed bag rather than a rainstorm, possibly like 12/19/08.

Ya sometimes I'm off on the exact timing of the models but you catch my drift I was just alluding to the fact that the models MAY be catching on to something but we're now in the heart of the time period where you'd expect to see some tweaks in the model outcomes. At this point I'd be more than happy with a mixed bag lol after all this cutter talk.

[MJO812]

that looks like a weaker version of '96 haha at least first image. And here's from steve's twitter: nynjpaweather Interesting note, the ECMWF Ensemble guidance has a faster transition to the coast and is colder overall for Sunday into Monday.

ECM isn't that bad. It's not that far from a coastal event.

There's still a lot of flip-flopping with the models....chances are higher for an inland track but its still a threat worth watching.

Agree. We are still 7 days away from this event.

What might make the upcoming threat more interesting is the possibility that what happened last time happens again, that being a more prevalent -NAO as guidance gets closer. As the last clipper came closer on guidance, it was shunted further and further south--obviously bad for us. Should the -NAO become more impressive and the 50/50 low stronger, the same thing could happen, but actually in our favor this time. Just something to consider.

Maybe the models are underestimating the block?

Ya sometimes I'm off on the exact timing of the models but you catch my drift I was just alluding to the fact that the models MAY be catching on to something but we're now in the heart of the time period where you'd expect to see some tweaks in the model outcomes. At this point I'd be more than happy with a mixed bag lol after all this cutter talk.

I would be really happy with a mixed bag event.

[whiteoutwx1796]

Things seem to be trending towards a rain to snow scenario b/c of a secondary development.

[Sundog]

I would be happy with anything that coats the ground at this point. If we somehow got a wraparound 1 or 2 inch event I would be elated.

[tombo82685]

someone with better luck than me do a 18z gfs thread or 18z model thread...

[Zir0b]

ECM isn't that bad. It's not that far from a coastal event.

Agree. We are still 7 days away from this event.

Maybe the models are underestimating the block?

I would be really happy with a mixed bag event.

HM says no

This is a terrible pattern for the Mid Atlantic and I see many calls for big snowstorms are looking to fail right now. oh well.... climo is your best friend

[Kaner587]

HM says no

While philly is considered Mid-atlantic NYC usually is not

[Zir0b]

While philly is considered Mid-atlantic NYC usually is not

Mid-Atlantic Region

[Nikolai]

HM says no

HM had said we would get snow in late November and 12/3-5, and had also forecasted a blowtorch for mid-month. I don't think HM is doing very well this winter, but that's just me. Admittedly, I thought the snow threats would begin in late November as well... obviously that has not quite worked out (although there were flurries today, ), but I think we have several chances the next few weeks.

& yes, DC-NYC is Mid-Atlantic.

[MJO812]

While philly is considered Mid-atlantic NYC usually is not

We are on the border. NYC always does better than Philly when it comes to Miller B's.

[Kaner587]

Mid-Atlantic Region

which confirms my assertion that philly is and NYC isnt

[Nikolai]

We are on the border. NYC always does better than Philly when it comes to Miller B's.

Not all the time actually, and I can't believe anyone could forget 2/10 this year so soon. The PHL area had 16"+ while most in the NYC area had around 8-12".

[MJO812]

which confirms my assertion that philly is and NYC isnt

Alot of people consider the NYC area ( northern mid atlantic ).

[MJO812]

Not all the time actually, and I can't believe anyone could forget 2/10 this year so soon. The PHL area had 16"+ while most in the NYC area had around 8-12".

Most of the time, we do better though. There are some cases where they do better ( like Feb 5-6 )

[NorEaster27]

Mid-Atlantic Region

upstate NY is midatlantic, dont think so