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philly/nyc 12z model suite


tombo82685

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lol yes, but the only thing is this setup would crush any storm

it's like a big bowl sits right on top of us... it definitely goes into a highly anomolous set-up.. 850 mb temps near west Palm beach get to near -4.... while I realize they have a much better sun angle to work with, I'm sure that will be pretty cool for those folks down there.

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the temps don't really seem brutally cold.. I think we could have seen worse than this.. but the penetration southward is pretty impressive. I think it will be much more a rude awakening for the deep south if this were to verify. 2 meter daytime temps near the end of the period don't do much better than 50 near Miami.

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phl sees .25-.5 from lake effect or disturbances rotating around the pv or something is causing it

NYC?

Any arctic outbreak as intense as the EURO is showing is bound to get someone with some rogue streamers. I think the bottom line from the 12z runs is that the pattern, while slightly chaotic, will give us opportunities for snow and December will end up significantly colder than normal.

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the temps don't really seem brutally cold.. I think we could have seen worse than this.. but the penetration southward is pretty impressive. I think it will be much more a rude awakening for the deep south if this were to verify. 2 meter daytime temps near the end of the period don't do much better than 50 near Miami.

You do have a point... I would like to point January 2004, had a -25 to -28 at H850.....

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NYC?

Any arctic outbreak as intense as the EURO is showing is bound to get someone with some rogue streamers. I think the bottom line from the 12z runs is that the pattern, while slightly chaotic, will give us opportunities for snow and December will end up significantly colder than normal.

nyc prob sees a tenth or so, its hvr in phl and hvr south of phl

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the temps don't really seem brutally cold.. I think we could have seen worse than this.. but the penetration southward is pretty impressive. I think it will be much more a rude awakening for the deep south if this were to verify. 2 meter daytime temps near the end of the period don't do much better than 50 near Miami.

Isnt this normal for a neg AO signal, Jay?  Much like what we had last winter-- the most severe negative anomalies are further south.  Of course, I would gladly trade severe cold in favor of snow.....

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It would be a hell of lot better if we had all this cold with STJ, a la February 2003.

But we will not leave December empty handed, I can tell you that.

Could you imagine what kind of winter we would be having with this kind of NAO and a weak la nina or weak el nino?

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Guest Patrick

Hi, Chris...I hope all is well =)

I hate to disagree with you, but I am going to. We were spoiled last winter. It is possible to leave December with a history of brutally cold air & windswept rainstorms... typical Nina.

It would be a hell of lot better if we had all this cold with STJ, a la February 2003.

But we will not leave December empty handed, I can tell you that.

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Didn't DT say the Nina was weakening?

Yes and this has HUGE implications for our winter. Weak La Nina with -NAO and -AO=Snowman.gif

Also without the raging pacific jet we'd be able to build a nice +PNA and then we'd have a cold AND snowy pattern. This may well happen without the weakening of the La Nina but it'll be much less common in that pattern than in the former.

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I listened to his "This Week in Weather" radio show last night and while he did mention that La Nina may be weakening he was not completely certain as of yet but believed it "could" be trending in that direction. He also mentioned the way the pattern is right now its not good if you want an east coast snowstorm, he gave a pretty good discussion.

Didn't DT say the Nina was weakening?

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