philly/nyc 12z model suite

[tombo82685]

out to hr 60

[tombo82685]

I've been meaning to ask you, would a stronger Pacific ridge negate the fact that the -NAO is non-existent? I've been watching this vortex barreling into Alaska (GFS hour 120) and am wondering if it travels further north, will the ridge be more amplified?

i think you want the ridge flatter. The stronger the ridge in the position its in would allow for the storm to amplify quicker.

[tombo82685]

so far through hr 72, clipper is weaker and the hgts over the east are a little lower.

[isnice]

i think you want the ridge flatter. The stronger the ridge in the position its in would allow for the storm to amplify quicker.

But wouldn't it also allow the storm to dig further south into the trough, or would it still turn negative too quickly?

[MJO812]

How is the southeast ridge going to be strong with a -NAO and -PNA? I don't get it.

[Quakertown needs snow]

ABE 12z GFS

[isnice]

Mt. Holly is surprisingly not too bullish on intensity of the storm:

ANOTHER LOW IS SHOWN BY THE MODELS DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY

SAT NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUN. THE

DEGREE OF DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW WILL DETERMINE IF ANY

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY IT. THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF BOTH

HAVE A STRONG SOLUTION WITH A SUB-990 MB LOW SOMEWHERE WITHIN A FEW

HUNDRED MILES OF OUR AREA. THE 12Z GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE

FEATURE...SO THE CHANGES WITH THIS SYSTEM BEAR WATCHING DURING THE

WEEK. WE WILL CARRY CHC POPS IN THE FCST FOR SUN AT THIS POINT.

[tombo82685]

through hr 84, clipper is weaker and further north, hgts along the east coast are a little lower. hr 96 a storm off the atl has deepened more than the 0z run, looks like its trying to pop a -nao

[tombo82685]

hr 108 storm coming into plains is a little weaker, 12z run deff has more of a -nao or one trying to establish than 0z

[NortheastPAWx]

The GFS set up to me says icy trouble at the higher elevations.

[tombo82685]

hr 120 the pv looks like its making a move to start phasing

[tombo82685]

hr 126 has a sub 1004 low over rockford, ill

[MJO812]

hr 126 has a sub 1004 low over rockford, ill

That seems way west.

[Alpha5]

Woohooo

Screw the lakes! Send ths thing through North Dakota

[tombo82685]

at hr 132 there is a sub 1000 low over lake mich...everything has shifted east really, the ridge axis is further east in the west, and the whole trof in the middle of the coast has shifted east from 0z

[tombo82685]

deff a good -nao building in at hr 132, almost a 50/50 low to, but it alittle further east, maybe 40/50

[tombo82685]

hr 144 storm is over lake huron, looks like a new storm or 2ndry going in se states

[tornadojay]

cold front coming through western NJ at 150

[atownwxwatcher]

120 ECM

[tombo82685]

hr 150 new low looks to be over phl, with 850s running from dc to harrisburg to about 50 miles west of bgm

[tombo82685]

u guys may think im nuts but the atl improved big time, -nao is in, and almost a strong 50/50 low if someone has the 168 hr map today compare it to last night

[atownwxwatcher]

144

[tombo82685]

hr 156 cold front through phl baring down on nyc

[rossi]

u guys may think im nuts but the atl improved big time, -nao is in, and almost a strong 50/50 low if someone has the 168 hr map today compare it to last night

Where is the rain/snow line?

Rossi

[tombo82685]

hr 162 cold front just past nyc

[Chris L]

u guys may think im nuts but the atl improved big time, -nao is in, and almost a strong 50/50 low if someone has the 168 hr map today compare it to last night

This will improve our chances down the road. Weekend of December 18th-19th, we'll probably get one.

[tombo82685]

504 thickness all the way down to ky on back side

[tornadojay]

at 168, it looks colder in Talahassee, Fl than in Caribou, Maine

[tombo82685]

the lafe effect after this storm is going to be epic, their is -20 850 over ky

[ptb127]

This run is awesome!!

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