philly/nyc 12z model suite

[opengeo]

gfs ens pretty much support the op

Models are much more likely to lock in on inland solutions earlier than they are coastals. A strange phenomenon that I can't explain, but it is definitely the truth.

[Allsnow]

We will get ours at some point in December (I know sounds like an idiot, but its true). AFTER the this low cuts inland, it will develop a better block (see ECMWF, now I know it might be extreme on that run).

Whether its a nice 4 to 8 inches (which we will all take) or a 20 to 30 inch blizzard... (see last December).

But right now: Patience.

This what i dont understand...we have a block now and are high and dry, how would the next block be any better

[Chris L]

This what i dont understand...we have a block now and are high and dry, how would the next block be any better

Part of the problem is how the block is simply too far east to give us any chance of a good track. plus the lack of a the ideal 50-50 Low does not help.

[bmc10]

This what i dont understand...we have a block now and are high and dry, how would the next block be any better

You just have to hope that some energy/moisture enters the equation next go around, aka after this weekend.

[Dsnowx53]

Interesting observation by Midlo:

And also, this block was never really that great...it was displaced to the SE of where exactly you want it--that's why you had that vortex displaced too far SE that didn't want to move. The next block, if it happens, looks to be stronger in magnitude and better placed than this one was.

[SnoSki14]

Really people are giving up already, what's with all the people who said be patient, or it's too far out in the future to make an accurate forecast. All of this negative talk sounds a bit premature don't you think. Also the cold air after the storm is not all that cold and there's no reason for it to be the "big story". It'll be cold relative to normal but I would figure the highs for the 2 days following the storm would be around 30-32 with lows around 20-22. All in all in would be a little bit colder than it is now, but it would feel much colder with the wind chill. Is that cold, yes, it's quite cold, is it big news, not really.

At least up here, the cold wouldn't be big news, but for the southeast, that's very cold for them. probably record setting. A big chunk of Florida would be seeing freezing temperatures all the way down to south Florida.

The block after the storm does look pretty good although it's still a bit further east than where you'd want it, the NAO falls negative from near neutral after the storm passes. There are a few threats way out in the long range, but who really knows how the blocking will setup that far out anyway. We could easily be dealing with another inland storm beyond Day 10.

[jrodd321]

Really people are giving up already, what's with all the people who said be patient, or it's too far out in the future to make an accurate forecast. All of this negative talk sounds a bit premature don't you think. Also the cold air after the storm is not all that cold and there's no reason for it to be the "big story". It'll be cold relative to normal but I would figure the highs for the 2 days following the storm would be around 30-32 with lows around 20-22. All in all in would be a little bit colder than it is now, but it would feel much colder with the wind chill. Is that cold, yes, it's quite cold, is it big news, not really.

At least up here, the cold wouldn't be big news, but for the southeast, that's very cold for them. probably record setting. A big chunk of Florida would be seeing freezing temperatures all the way down to south Florida.

The block after the storm does look pretty good although it's still a bit further east than where you'd want it, the NAO falls negative from near neutral after the storm passes. There are a few threats way out in the long range, but who really knows how the blocking will setup that far out anyway. We could easily be dealing with another inland storm beyond Day 10.

Wasn't this around the time last week the Euro showed DC getting 7" of snow and Boston an all out blizzard for this past weekend?

Give it time.

[opengeo]

Really people are giving up already, what's with all the people who said be patient, or it's too far out in the future to make an accurate forecast. All of this negative talk sounds a bit premature don't you think. Also the cold air after the storm is not all that cold and there's no reason for it to be the "big story". It'll be cold relative to normal but I would figure the highs for the 2 days following the storm would be around 30-32 with lows around 20-22. All in all in would be a little bit colder than it is now, but it would feel much colder with the wind chill. Is that cold, yes, it's quite cold, is it big news, not really.

Oh please, man. So, don't be negative about the snow that looks increasingly less likely to happen based on several features aloft that are not in our favor. But, be negative about the cold that follows? Once again, you are all over the place and need to take some time off.

[jm1220]

seems odd that it's going neg tilt at this point....you have to wonder if the gfs is overamplifying too early.

The one saving grace is that there's almost no ridging off the SE Coast, which would force it to track way west, but the S/W looks amplified enough to justify an inland track since the blocking is long gone. Since it's northern stream, it's the kind of storm that can amplify fast and lurch northeast. Without a 50-50 feature or pronounced -NAO, there's just no way there's going to be a snowstorm this year for most of the East south of I-90. It seems pretty cut-and-dry to me. The questionable zones seem to be over the Apps, since enough cold air being in place initially will result in sleet and freezing rain.

[tombo82685]

12z gem, looks like we are back to a cold front

[bmc10]

Really people are giving up already, what's with all the people who said be patient, or it's too far out in the future to make an accurate forecast. All of this negative talk sounds a bit premature don't you think. Also the cold air after the storm is not all that cold and there's no reason for it to be the "big story". It'll be cold relative to normal but I would figure the highs for the 2 days following the storm would be around 30-32 with lows around 20-22. All in all in would be a little bit colder than it is now, but it would feel much colder with the wind chill. Is that cold, yes, it's quite cold, is it big news, not really.

At least up here, the cold wouldn't be big news, but for the southeast, that's very cold for them. probably record setting. A big chunk of Florida would be seeing freezing temperatures all the way down to south Florida.

The block after the storm does look pretty good although it's still a bit further east than where you'd want it, the NAO falls negative from near neutral after the storm passes. There are a few threats way out in the long range, but who really knows how the blocking will setup that far out anyway. We could easily be dealing with another inland storm beyond Day 10.

If the cold plays out the way some of the models are showing it, highs will be lower than what you are saying.

[SnoSki14]

Oh please, man. So, don't be negative about the snow that looks increasingly less likely to happen based on several features aloft that are not in our favor. But, be negative about the cold that follows? Once again, you are all over the place and need to take some time off.

I don't think I'm over the place at all, it's what I see on the models. I'm not being negative on the snow and I'm not trying to downplay the cold, but rather I'm trying to be realistic. For my personal interest, I would prefer if it was warmer, but I don't see how anyone can be negative about how cold it gets. A few degrees difference is not a big deal in my opinion when it comes to the cold air, unless it involves a storm system.

[bluewave]

CMC position looks close to GFS on this run.

[opengeo]

I don't think I'm over the place at all, it's what I see on the models. I'm not being negative on the snow and I'm not trying to downplay the cold, but rather I'm trying to be realistic. For my personal interest, I would prefer if it was warmer, but I don't see how anyone can be negative about how cold it gets. A few degrees difference is not a big deal in my opinion when it comes to the cold air, unless it involves a storm system.

What you should see on the models is that they are becoming decreasingly all over the place, hence you are seeing most mets and others seeing the reality of the situation today, as opposed to yesterday or two days ago. The conditions for a SECS just aren't really there right now. Things may change. Let's hope things change.

[SnoSki14]

It's unfortunate that we don't have a bit more blocking in place, than maybe we could have had at least a snow to rain to snow type of storm. Unfortunately the primary low goes too far north and the secondary isn't able to develop offshore.

[isnice]

CMC position looks close to GFS on this run.

Back-end snow?

[jrodd321]

CMC position looks close to GFS on this run.

144 doesn't look too bad.

With this still 6 days out, anything can happen.

[SLAM22]

anybody have a day 14 threat to lift our spirits?

[blazess556]

This is still 5-6 days out. There is time for this to trend better.

[A-L-E-X]

Part of the problem is how the block is simply too far east to give us any chance of a good track. plus the lack of a the ideal 50-50 Low does not help.

east based - nao?

anyway, what a day today!  As you can tell by my sig we have light snow here, but the real story are the winds!  brrrrr~!

[isnice]

east based - nao?

anyway, what a day today! As you can tell by my sig we have light snow here, but the real story are the winds! brrrrr~!

Yep windy and light snow all day- even a little accumulation this morning

[tombo82685]

im gonna do the euro here

out to 12hrs

[isnice]

Ensembles finally fall in line with the op. I think the GFS is the way to go on this one- the euro is too far west. This is an inland east of the Apps runner. Everyone will get snow except for the east coast.

[ag3]

Ensembles finally fall in line with the op. I think the GFS is the way to go on this one- the euro is too far west. This is an inland east of the Apps runner. Everyone will get snow except for the east coast.

Thank you Nostradamus. I appreciate the fortune telling. I'll go buy a new umbrella today.

[tombo82685]

out to 30 hrs on the euro

[isnice]

Thank you Nostradamus. I appreciate the fortune telling. I'll go buy a new umbrella today.

Wow. You really think that this storm is capable of pushing the polar vortex further north? Unless I misinterpreted your completely "unbiased" statement. We're allowed to have opinions, no? The key word in what I said was, "think." You're entitled to think what you want, be my guest.

[ChescoWx]

Just looked at the 12z GFS for the NW Philly burbs and it has a Snow to Rain(majority) to snow scenario.

Should be very interesting week as the models turn.....

[earthlight]

I hope we can all continue to objectively analyze the model guidance like we had been doing well for several days. The storm threat is still 140+ hours away. That being said, we are getting an idea of the key players on the field in this set up. Not all of them are in a good position for snow to the coastal plain. We will see how things develop from here.

[MJO812]

12z GGEM could be snow to rain to snow.

[isnice]

I hope we can all continue to objectively analyze the model guidance like we had been doing well for several days. The storm threat is still 140+ hours away. That being said, we are getting an idea of the key players on the field in this set up. Not all of them are in a good position for snow to the coastal plain. We will see how things develop from here.

I've been meaning to ask you, would a stronger Pacific ridge negate the fact that the -NAO is non-existent? I've been watching this vortex barreling into Alaska (GFS hour 120) and am wondering if it travels further north, will the ridge be more amplified?