philly/nyc 12z model suite

[tombo82685]

hr 147 has a 996 low around the western delmarva

[Allsnow]

I think it was actually somewhat substantial.. I think it might have been a tenth of an inch or so.

Yeah CT get about .10-.25......metro area get .01-.10

[earthlight]

The secondary pretty much rides along I-95 this run

[tombo82685]

hr 150 has a sub 984 over northeast md

[earthlight]

153 hours over Northeast PA

[tornadojay]

Low looks like it's right on top of Allentown PA.. hey, this doesn't look half bad right now.. Very nice, closed off system.. that's for sure

[tombo82685]

so it looks like what we dont want is a strong sw coming out of the rockies, you want that as weak as possible

[NaoPos]

from hours 138-144, 850's crash from central pa down to the 1-95 corridor... 138 being 6z, and 12z being 144..

[tombo82685]

I think it was actually somewhat substantial.. I think it might have been a tenth of an inch or so.

jay look at your 925 mb chart from bout hr 111 on

[NaoPos]

and then receeed at 150

Obviously it was gonna happen with the low track

[tornadojay]

nice run for western NY.. add to several feet of LE snow some places already have.

[Dsnowx53]

See that little area of troughing in Northern New England and in SE Canada? That is an important feature that could prevent this from cutting inland if it strengthens:

[tombo82685]

hr 165 is a sub 972 over watertown, ny...the lows path is basically western delmarva to phl to abe to watertown

[earthlight]

The fundamental problem, as forky details, is the blocking breakdown. Remember a few days ago how I talked about the Euro completely eroding the blocking? Well this is what most guidance is showing now as the ULL over the Northeast lifts north. The NAO actually spikes towards neutral if you look at the wavelength and upper level trough/ridge progression in the North Atlantic. This storm we are tracking may actually be the feature to really turn the tables and get the west based -NAO going. This is what most ensembles have been indicating for days now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/f324.gif

[isnice]

Wouldn't that strengthening amplify the heights out ahead of the storm?

[forkyfork]

See that little area of troughing in Northern New England and in SE Canada? That is an important feature that could prevent this from cutting inland if it strengthens:

that needs to be much, much more than a little area of troughing for us to see snow

[Allsnow]

The fundamental problem, as forky details, is the blocking breakdown. Remember a few days ago how I talked about the Euro completely eroding the blocking? Well this is what most guidance is showing now as the ULL over the Northeast lifts north. The NAO actually spikes towards neutral if you look at the wavelength and upper level trough/ridge progression in the North Atlantic. This storm we are tracking may actually be the feature to really turn the tables and get the west based -NAO going. This is what most ensembles have been indicating for days now.

http://www.meteo.psu...GNH_0z/f324.gif

So in a nut shell we are wet not white....and stuck shovling potential and not actual inches?

[Sundog]

I love how all the cold air evacuates for about 18 hours, let's all the precip move through and comes right back with bitter cold.

[isnice]

The blocking paradox: when we have it it's too strong and when we need it it's not strong enough. It's an 07-08 repeat

[opengeo]

I love how all the cold air evacuates for about 18 hours, let's all the precip move through and comes right back with bitter cold.

....like waves on a beach.

[opengeo]

The blocking paradox: when we have it it's too strong and when we need it it's not strong enough. It's an 07-08 repeat

It's December 6th. Remember that. I am not optimistic about this storm. But, it's early in the met winter. Plenty of time to go.

[earthlight]

The positioning of the PV over Central Canada is also pretty poor...more often than not you want it further east than that.

[jm1220]

I love how all the cold air evacuates for about 18 hours, let's all the precip move through and comes right back with bitter cold.

Strong Ninas FTW!!

[Stormlover74]

So on to the next threat. Usually about now is when someone says ooh look around Day 12 or 13

The blocking paradox: when we have it it's too strong and when we need it it's not strong enough. It's an 07-08 repeat

[buckeye]

See that little area of troughing in Northern New England and in SE Canada? That is an important feature that could prevent this from cutting inland if it strengthens:

seems odd that it's going neg tilt at this point....you have to wonder if the gfs is overamplifying too early.

[Chris L]

We will get ours at some point in December (I know sounds like an idiot, but its true). AFTER the this low cuts inland, it will develop a better block (see ECMWF, now I know it might be extreme on that run).

Whether its a nice 4 to 8 inches (which we will all take) or a 20 to 30 inch blizzard... (see last December).

But right now: Patience.

[bmc10]

I love how all the cold air evacuates for about 18 hours, let's all the precip move through and comes right back with bitter cold.

Exactly what I was thinking! This has been a pretty consistent early winter stretch of cold weather, to be followed by a day or warmer air and rain, only to bring in an even colder air mass. Maybe the next wave of cold can provide some snow. If this interior cutting low can provide some blocking upstream, maybe that will be the difference maker. Very frustrating to say the least.

[SACRUS]

It's the cold prior and just after the storm that is likely going to be the bigger story/deal for us.

[tombo82685]

gfs ens pretty much support the op

[Quakertown needs snow]

that was a crazy looking track.

vodka cold coming after.