philly/nyc 12z model suite

[tombo82685]

gfs out to 24 hrs

[isnice]

What are we thinking?

[tombo82685]

What are we thinking?

in terms of?

[isnice]

The outcome?

[tombo82685]

The outcome?

who knows, hopefully something like the 6z gfs or further east.

[ag3]

The outcome?

He's not psychic. All these storm threads are for entertainment and to watch the pattern. All who have experience know that we wont get an accurate picture of the storm until inside of 96 hours. People getting excited or dissapointed by a model run thats more then 96 hours out, have a lot to learn.

[BxEngine]

Wednesday looks a decent amount colder on the 12z.

[tombo82685]

clipper is further south on at hr 78, also the heights across the us are lower compared to 6z so far

[tombo82685]

clipper still further south and a little weaker through 84, 850s and hgts are all a good but south of 6z so far

[Joe4alb]

That vortmax coming down out of Canada seems quite a bit more impressive on the 12z compared to the 6z, hopefully will allow a bit more digging.

[Manny]

clipper is further south on at hr 78, also the heights across the us are lower compared to 6z so far

That's an early positive sign.

[tombo82685]

clipper much weaker at 90, sub 1004 while 6z was sub 1000, everything so far pushing further south

[Guest Patrick]

Here she comes @ 90:

[Guest Patrick]

I don't know if I buy the slow movement. from 90-102 on the GFS.. that clipper isn't clipping...it's crawling.

[tornadojay]

looks like some weak overunning light snow Friday night.

[tombo82685]

through hr 114, the storm is stronger compared to the 6z, down to sub 1004 over southern nebraska, also looks like the ridge out west is a little further east

[Eskimo Joe]

first system looks a bit better at 700mb.

[Sundog]

What implications does a slower moving clipper have on our storm? That thing barely moved in 18 hours.

[forkyfork]

nothing to stop the low from cutting west... don't waste your time

[earthlight]

The shortwave is way more amplified and more phased than 06z through 126. Blocking and confluence is weak.

[Allsnow]

looks like some weak overunning light snow Friday night.

Whats the preciep total .01-.05? If anything it seems the clipper has trended colder at the surface, where we prob looking at snow

[tombo82685]

hr 126 has a sub 1004 over st louis 850s up to nyc to pittsburgh

[earthlight]

nothing to stop the low from cutting west... don't waste your time

I would think a stronger block or confluent flow over New England would certainly do the trick.

[forkyfork]

the block is totally gone by 48 hrs... you need some major changes and soon

[tombo82685]

hr 138 has a primary of 996 over cincy, 2ndry development looks to be in the southeast somewhere

[earthlight]

Slightly stronger confluent flow is slowing down the phase and allowing the surface low to escape east some at 141 hours...primary is still too far west though over the OV.

[tornadojay]

Whats the preciep total .01-.05? If anything it seems the clipper has trended colder at the surface, where we prob looking at snow

I think it was actually somewhat substantial.. I think it might have been a tenth of an inch or so.

[Joe4alb]

Take a look the 500mb chart, tremendous difference between 6z and 12z. Much more amplification ahead of the system.

[tombo82685]

hr 144 has one 996 low over central ohio the other just west of norfolk, 850s and frz on i95

[earthlight]

Secondary surface low is over DC at 147 hrs...nice hit for State College.