Paweatherguy1 Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Regardless of location, a 972 low over central ny is very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Interesting--If the vort slows down a little and allows the -NAO to reform, we could suppress this thing and make it a MA storm. The NOV 1950 was thrown out by HPC..also IIRC March 62 Ash Wednesday was storm that form and got trapped under a strengthening block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 It's a storm type not seen that often... really it's a mega clipper. Rare to see the upper level energy close off, move SE and rapidly deepen. (700 MB map 12Z GFS 126 hrs - 144 hrs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Interesting--If the vort slows down a little and allows the -NAO to reform, we could suppress this thing and make it a MA storm. The NOV 1950 was thrown out by HPC..also IIRC March 62 Ash Wednesday was storm that form and got trapped under a strengthening block. <H1></H1> #17 Midlo Snow Maker one thing the 12z gfs does it trys to bring the -nao more west this run as the trough swings through the miss. valley. something to watch and see if that keeps up and pushes that upper low more into more of a 50/50. i'm not meti play a moderator on a weather board so i could be wrong 0z vs 12z Worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Sure its rain in the big cities, but the Canadian's storm is impressive non the less. And Winter is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Euro convo going on in the chat room right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Euro convo going on in the chat room right now... where is chat room Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 where is chat room Scroll to top of page... click Chat link... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 In summary, the Euro is west and progressive from what I gather. Looks cold after the "storm" though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 In summary, the Euro is west and progressive from what I gather. Looks cold after the "storm" though. doesnt it pop anotherr low inland south of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 *pulls string* The 12z Euro says... Nothing spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1954Dodge Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 doesnt it pop anotherr low inland south of dc There are two storms, one goes up into the lakes which is weaker, then one forms off the coast and explodes north east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 There are two storms, one goes up into the lakes which is weaker, then one forms off the coast and explodes north east. Actually, on the Euro the Lakes storm is deep, with a cold front associated with it. The "storm" to the south looks like a wave on the front that is swept out to sea with the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Chilly to say the least after the storm pulls out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 In summary, the Euro is west and progressive from what I gather. Looks cold after the "storm" though. The GFS has now tried to forecast 3 significant snowstorms in the longer ranges and not one has yet verified for the DC to NYC corridor. Even with a negative NAO, we need a vortex closer to NOva scotia to provide confluence across new england. This smacks of La Nina. Sorry I missed the earlier model discussion. I wrote something for CWG piror to the 12Z model runs and am waiting for it to run. Once it does, I'll post it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The GFS has now tried to forecast 3 significant snowstorms in the longer ranges and not one has yet verified for the DC to NYC corridor. Even with a negative NAO, we need a vortex closer to NOva scotia to provide confluence across new england. This smacks of La Nina. Sorry I missed the earlier model discussion. I wrote something for CWG piror to the 12Z model runs and am waiting for it to run. Once it does, I'll post it here. Wes, I mentioned this elsewhere, but could you imagine what kind of winter we'd be having if we had a weak la nina or weak el nino with this monstrous neg NAO? The strength of the la nina is the only thing holding us back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z GFS ens members at 144, a little more spread than the past couple runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2010 Author Share Posted December 6, 2010 The GFS has now tried to forecast 3 significant snowstorms in the longer ranges and not one has yet verified for the DC to NYC corridor. Even with a negative NAO, we need a vortex closer to NOva scotia to provide confluence across new england. This smacks of La Nina. Sorry I missed the earlier model discussion. I wrote something for CWG piror to the 12Z model runs and am waiting for it to run. Once it does, I'll post it here. Yep, and this is why I'm pretty much pessimistic for our area for a while. The fantasy GFS storms do have a tendency to yank me in for a bit, but once I saw the Euro cut and the GGEM join, I knew we were cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 The Euro phases the northern low of the dual LP system more with the PV over central Canada, hence the stronger northern system. We all know the Euro loves phasing northern stream systems. That will be the uncertainy point over the next 5 days. A slightly slower evolution of the system would make things more interesting for the EC weenies. We want enough confluence to build out in front, so the dual LP fully transfers to a primary in the southern plains region. (See P005 posted above) It's the faster speed of everything that's hurt us on the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Chilly to say the least after the storm pulls out: Look at that stream of lake effect moisture...almost nailing boone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 Yep, and this is why I'm pretty much pessimistic for our area for a while. The fantasy GFS storms do have a tendency to yank me in for a bit, but once I saw the Euro cut and the GGEM join, I knew we were cooked. The 12Z ensembles really are ugly for the sunday storm. Too bad I haven't kept all the crappy model forecasts as it would be a neat slide for a presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 our really only hope right know is the main low stays weak out west and the 2nd low forms along the coast and bombs out, even with this some areas will see just rain as the main low would bring in warmer air but not as much as if the main low was stronger. I am going out on a limb by saying this but this is the only way i could see the main low going west will work for some areas in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 6, 2010 Share Posted December 6, 2010 12z ECMWF ens mean, 144, 168 & 192 hrs... Don't know I have seen in recent memory isobars packed this tight, especially on a mean solution... 144 hrs, NA and Atl view 168 hrs, NA and Atl view 192 hrs, NA and Atl view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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