12z Models 12/06/2010

[stormtracker]

Lets keep it on topic

[wxmeddler]

NOUS42 KWNO 061333
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1330Z MON DEC 06 2010
THE NCEP 12Z MODEL CYCLE ON TIME WITH GOOD DATA COVERAGE.
INCLUDED WERE...13 AK/33 CANADIAN/70 CONUS/11 MEXICAN AND
7 CARIBBEAN REPORTS IN TIME FOR THE NAM START.
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
ASY/70414 - 10145. INCLEMENT WEATHER.
WDS/71802 - PURGED TEMPS/DPDS 850-803MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
JAX/72206 - TTBB NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE NAM.
ILX/74560 - 10158. FLIGHT EQ FAILURE.
YNN/78073 - PURGED TEMPS/DPDS 877-872MB...WET BULB EFFECT.
GUM/91212 - PURGED TEMPS 211-134MB...3-4C COLD.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
WOOLDRIDGE/SDM/NCO/NCEP

Current Status of Model Production

[weathervswife]

Compared to 6Z, we're colder in the east and the GL low is further south with return moisture from the gulf showing up earlier.

[weathervswife]

Compared to 6Z, we're colder in the east and the GL low is further south with return moisture from the gulf showing up earlier.

That was at 102....126 is ugly. Nevermind.

[Ian]

primary looks stronger at 126... that cant be good

[stormtracker]

primary looks stronger at 126... that cant be good

Its already going negative tilt.....over MO.

This one is done.

[Ellinwood]

The eastward trend from 00Z continues...also even more cut-off this time around.

[stormtracker]

The eastward trend from 00Z continues...also even more cut-off this time around.

I'm pretty sure you mean westward

[stormtracker]

Looks to be some weak CAD/redevelopment going on. Too late for the coastal plain though

[Ian]

Its already going negative tilt.....over MO.

This one is done.

i dunno ellinwood might like these maps

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_144m.gif

too bad it's not may.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

wow 984mb over dc hr 150

[thunderman]

144 has a 994hpa secondary popping of SE VA

[Ellinwood]

i dunno ellinwood might like these maps

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_144m.gif

too bad it's not may.

Yeah lol I was checking upper-air... 500h to be exact.

Bombogenesis...

[stormtracker]

wow 984mb over dc hr 150

Yeah, its a beast...and the thing we were moaning about the most (blocking) we really need now. Oh well.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

hooks back to bradford pa ~978mb big mountain snows here

[Quasievil]

This is a sign of this winter. From what I've read it's going to be GL specials all year long. Hard to complain though.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

one thing the 12z gfs does it trys to bring the -nao more west this run as the trough swings through the miss. valley. something to watch and see if that keeps up and pushes that upper low more into more of a 50/50. i'm not meti play a moderator on a weather board so i could be wrong

0z vs 12z

[Dr No]

The Friday clipper doesn't seem to get out of the way fast enough this run, therefore, not enought time to drain more cold air down.

The storm is pretty much out of here by Sunday PM for the MA. It might be the GFS being a bit too quick with things as it can be... dunno. Big sleet run for western burbs.

[WVclimo]

Frigid after the storm, then the GFS spits out another OV low 264-300 hrs.

[Paweatherguy1]

Wow. This run is basically showing blizzard conditions for large portions of pa, ny, and parts of oh,especially as the storm deepens.

Impressive.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

this is a 12z model disco thread not a "in your backyard" disco thread, or "who got what i am owed snow thread" thanks

i removed the name but this is an example of what not to posts in model threads weenies take notes

not hard to complain here.While you guys in Va , Md, and southern Pa got nailed last winter, we here in Williamsport got teased time after time and never got one good snowfall more than 6 inches. We ended up with about 32 inches for the yr so my patience for this yr is pretty thin.

[WinterWxLuvr]

When these models have a run that looks good, the talk is skeptical.

When a model comes in with a solution that isn't that great, it seems to be accepted as written in stone.

It's one model run. It isn't terrible. The GFS, EC, GGEM means all look OK. It's still a week away. Why should we just accept that today's GFS 12z is the way it will happen? This is the 12z model (S) thread, not the 12 GFS thread.

[Ian]

When these models have a run that looks good, the talk is skeptical.

When a model comes in with a solution that isn't that great, it seems to be accepted as written in stone.

It's one model run. It isn't terrible. The GFS, EC, GGEM means all look OK. It's still a week away. Why should we just accept that today's GFS 12z is the way it will happen? This is the 12z model (S) thread, not the 12 GFS thread.

the signs point toward this being an interior event at best... even there (until way interior) i'd be a little nervous with how things look now.

[thunderman]

After looking at this a bit more, it looks like it would a IP event for many west of 95. Looks like the Shenandoah Valley in western VA could be hit exceptionally hard if this were to verify.

[OSUmetstud]

the 12z UKMET has a very similar look to the GFS at 144 hours...primary low of 998mb over SW Ohio but with a stronger suggestion of a secondary redevelopment near the SC/NC border. There is bit more suppression over the North Atlantic than the GFS...a 50N/42W low instead of a 50N/40W low on the GFS...and the slightly stronger lead shortwave beating down 500mb heights to 540 dm instead of 548 dm over western Nova Scotia.

[sauss06]

does this have any similarities to the december 19th event last year

[Ian]

does this have any similarities to the december 19th event last year

not really.. that was mostly southern stream energy

[Chris L]

does this have any similarities to the december 19th event last year

No... that took a more classic track and was purely STJ....

[Dr No]

does this have any similarities to the december 19th event last year

Right now, much closer to the VD 2007 event than Dec last year, but that is a IMBY perspective.

[Ian]

Thank you. I could not remember and i was going to see if i could go back and look at that thread from Eastern, but no can do. Appreciate the help.

there's a miller a/miller b thread in the sne forum somewhere that might be worth looking for. the feb 9/10 storm was sorta like this in development but a better solution obviously.