thenewbigmack Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Hey guys... I normally post on western but thought I would post this here as well. I'm newer to long range forecasting... so it will be interesting to see how this winter turns out. I chose my analog years based on these rules: 1) Years which featured at least a cold neutral winter 2) Years which featured a -PDO 3) Years during the +AMO phase 4) Years which were preceded by either a cold neutral/Nina winter I only used years which fit rule #4 because I found very obvious differences when comparing 1st year Nina's to 2nd/3rd year ones. Once I had my remaining years, I ran through composites of each and compared what I got. There were 2 years (1962 and 1999) which didn't fit the expected pattern at all so I decided it was best to just eliminate those. Here are my remaining analog years: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1961, 2008 Using the above years, I came up with the following monthly outlooks. DEC: JAN: FEB: I would love any comments or suggestions EDIT: Added in temp values and made maps more appealing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like a good forecast. What analogs did you use specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like a good forecast. What analogs did you use specifically? It is there in his post before the images. All the information is there, you just have to read the finer points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 It is there in his post before the images. All the information is there, you just have to read the finer points. I meant why, as speaking of post 1950 vs pre 1950, not sure why I worded it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenewbigmack Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 I meant why, as speaking of post 1950 vs pre 1950, not sure why I worded it like that. Honestly I was just keeping things more simple by using post 1950. It may hurt the accuracy, but it made it an easier process. All the years still fell during a +AMO / -PDO phase like we are currently in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Honestly I was just keeping things more simple by using post 1950. It may hurt the accuracy, but it made it an easier process. All the years still fell during a +AMO / -PDO phase like we are currently in Oh, well, who knows what'll happen. Still like the method either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thenewbigmack Posted August 18, 2011 Author Share Posted August 18, 2011 Oh, well, who knows what'll happen. Still like the method either way. Much appreciated... especially coming from a forum I dont normally post on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 I meant why, as speaking of post 1950 vs pre 1950, not sure why I worded it like that. Very few people use pre-1950 data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 18, 2011 Share Posted August 18, 2011 Very few people use pre-1950 data... I know, and I'm not sure why since certain specific parameters match up better in the earlier days without needing too much data, its not like you need all that much to determine what a winter was like over the Lower 48 US in 1925. If I decide to do a winter outlook I'm not going to excude data from the 1895-1925 time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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