Ivanhater Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba and into the Central Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The most hindering thing this season is dry air, in my opinion. Another thing is that so many of these systems seem to be "tilted". Case was true for Don, Emily, and even Gert for a time. Could that be because of the dry air as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z GFS Ensemble mean brings it across Cuba and into the Central Gulf Interesting how the operational run is so much further off than the ensemble mean which is ridiculously similar to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Interesting how the operational run is so much further off than the ensemble mean which is ridiculously similar to the Euro. Most of the 12z Canadian ensemble members agree with the Gulf solution as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 This is actually kind of sad when you think about it. One has to wonder just how many others are out there that feel the same way. I don't think any of us that follow the tropics discourage reasonable discussions what so ever. It's very high. I remember last year getting mocked and ridiculed for posting observations when Bonnie came through. I mean yea, Bonnie sucked but it was still weather and I was posting it in the Bonnie thread. I just mostly lurk now because I don't feel like dealing w/ a lot of BS. I have also had conversations via PM w/ other members here that say the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Interesting how the operational run is so much further off than the ensemble mean which is ridiculously similar to the Euro. As does the EnKF run of the GFS (same physics, just gets initialized with EnKF instead of 3DVAR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 As does the EnKF run of the GFS (same physics, just gets initialized with EnKF instead of 3DVAR) Can you post the EnKF run of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can you post the EnKF run of the GFS? http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/gfsenkf/control/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like the wave is slowly organizing today with a marked increase in vorticity. It should be an Invest tonight if it can gain a little convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 It's very high. I remember last year getting mocked and ridiculed for posting observations when Bonnie came through. I mean yea, Bonnie sucked but it was still weather and I was posting it in the Bonnie thread. I just mostly lurk now because I don't feel like dealing w/ a lot of BS. I have also had conversations via PM w/ other members here that say the same thing. Please don't feel unwelcome. Please post, and if anyone is mean to you, you just let me know and I'll take care of 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 http://www.esrl.noaa...fsenkf/control/ Interesting... thanks for that. This is perhaps more evidence to lean towards the Euro/GFSe/UKMET/CMC solutions versus the GFS Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like the EC ensembles are very close to the op run through about d7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Please don't feel unwelcome. Please post, and if anyone is mean to you, you just let me know and I'll take care of 'em. Oh I don't anymore. I've come out of my shell. Now if someone mocks me, I just tell them to piss off. LOL. But the general perception of the tropical thread is that you are unwelcome at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z Euro not loNot looking so HAWT, much weaker/ nonexistent system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 12z Euro not loNot looking so HAWT, much weaker/ nonexistent system. Because it runs it into Hispaniola.... it does redevelop it afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Because it runs it into Hispaniola.... it does redevelop it afterwards. Another excuse not to become a hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
futuremet Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Discussion of the latest in the tropics: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Looks like 18z GFS gets Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The GFS consistency on this thing is either scary or hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 looks like the 11th run in a row of the GFS showing a landfalling hurricane, this time it looks like in Palm Beach Fl http://raleighwx.ame...tropical204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 The GFS consistency on this thing is either scary or hilarious. Agreed. It's getting almost... weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is a second trough that comes down on the GFS that pushes the TC Northeastward after impacting Florida, need to watch for trends on the euro and other models. This could easily turn into a near-miss or Florida straits-type hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 There is a second trough that comes down on the GFS that pushes the TC Northeastward after impacting Florida, need to watch for trends on the euro and other models. This could easily turn into a near-miss or Florida straits-type hurricane. Fronts usually slow down so it could go either way. That is if there is even a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Agreed. It's getting almost... weird. Just my luck I have a cruise out of Miami Monday basically right into the belly of the beast. Then if Mr GFS actually verified it would follow me back home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can't tell exactly, but does the 'cane go cold core/extratropical low when traversing the east coast? Has an odd look to it, but I'm probably seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can't tell exactly, but does the 'cane go cold core/extratropical low when traversing the east coast? Has an odd look to it, but I'm probably seeing things. Im pretty sure that if this were to come true, it wouldn't be extratropical, it would probably be a major hurricane, what you're seeing is probably the stretching as the hurricane gets picked up by the weakness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can't tell exactly, but does the 'cane go cold core/extratropical low when traversing the east coast? Has an odd look to it, but I'm probably seeing things. I doubt it with these Sea Surface Temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I repeat what I said yesterday: "If I had a dollar for every fantasy GFS run showing a Hurricane David..." Still, the relative consistency is noteworthy. I believe every run lately has shown the turn to the NW and NNW. As always, though, the exact position of such a sharp turn makes a big difference. We are still in fantasy land, however. Let's see a storm form first. Speaking of which, it's really looking better tonight structure-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Can't tell exactly, but does the 'cane go cold core/extratropical low when traversing the east coast? Has an odd look to it, but I'm probably seeing things. Why would even ask that question 10 days out. There are a dozens of things that have to happen before your question is even relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Why would even ask that question 10 days out. There are a dozens of things that have to happen before your question is even relevant. It doesn't hurt to speculate hmm? Impossible to know anyways, because the GFS truncates after 192 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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