Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Something could develop out of this, just not something good. If only they had radar between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Mandarin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 98L looks better than Jose ever did, so I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start issuing advisories on this mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 98L looks better than Jose ever did, so I guess I wouldn't be surprised to see the NHC start issuing advisories on this mess... It's ST2.5 right now... not entirely sure what they are waiting on to pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 That's a textbook STS presentation, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 SHIPS initialized with 40 knots, if they do start advisories, straight to STS Sean, I'd think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 SHIPS initialized with 40 knots, if they do start advisories, straight to STS Sean, I'd think... Damn, no STD's for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Cherry "A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 425 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER AN AREA EXTENDING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TONIGHT OR ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD TODAY AND NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Ha ha ha, someone updated the thread tagline for me! Perfect. Thanks to Adam or Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Sloppy, yes, but that is SNE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Its trying its best to at least get clouds on all sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Road trip to Marseille? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 00Z EC continues to be pretty bullish on a system developing E of Nicaragua in about 7-10 days. MJO could be favorable then as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Looks like some more subtropical nonsense late next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Looks like some more subtropical nonsense late next week Yep, all ingredients will be there, including above normal SSTs in the midlatitudes in the Atlantic. Not my cup of tea, especially in November, but if it can transition to full warm core, I will be following it. And it may not be the last (tropical or subtropical), with the reemerging Niña, below normal shear, above normal SSTs, and favorable MJO we might see threats well into Dec... though disturbances this late in the season are very fragile and vulnerable to the westerly gods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Random news items: * Lemon way out in the Atlantic. * Nate was upgraded to a 'cane in post-season analysis. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Random news items: * Lemon way out in the Atlantic. * Nate was upgraded to a 'cane in post-season analysis. Blah. Boo I would have downgraded it to a depression. Very crappy Satellite appearence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Has the NHC also added the unnamed subtropical storm that impacted Florida's east coast a month or two ago yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Has the NHC also added the unnamed subtropical storm that impacted Florida's east coast a month or two ago yet? Post analysis is moving along. We'll see what they do with that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Post analysis is moving along. We'll see what they do with that system. I am curious about the post-analysis process. What do that they look at when they are doing the post analysis that they didn't see the first time? Is it additional data or just a fresh set of eyes on the old info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I am curious about the post-analysis process. What do that they look at when they are doing the post analysis that they didn't see the first time? Is it additional data or just a fresh set of eyes on the old info? For Nate, for example, they received data from PEMEX oil rig platforms afterwards that confirmed 1min winds around hurricane force for a brief time. Recon data at the time was close to hurricane force, but they didn't upgrade because of the satellite appearance. Most of the time is the same data plus some additional data not available at operational time,. Probably there are times where it's mostly the same data available at operational time, but there's more time for analysis and consultation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 I am curious about the post-analysis process. What do that they look at when they are doing the post analysis that they didn't see the first time? Is it additional data or just a fresh set of eyes on the old info? They (The NHC) basically perform an intensive case study on the event. They pour over the observed and model data and make logical inferences, which may or may not have been made operationally. They then come up with a "best track" and evaluate the intensity errors from their official forecasts, model forecasts and long-term average errors to arrive at a maximum sustained surface wind speed curve associated with the "best track". For example...flight level winds may or may not be considered representative of a cyclone's intensity operationally...but during post analysis they may see data only hrs apart that suggest those winds were in fact representative after all. Hence, the official time/location may be adjusted as to when the TC become a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 They (The NHC) basically perform an intensive case study on the event. They pour over the observed and model data and make logical inferences, which may or may not have been made operationally. They then come up with a "best track" and evaluate the intensity errors from their official forecasts, model forecasts and long-term average errors to arrive at a maximum sustained surface wind speed curve associated with the "best track".For example...flight level winds may or may not be considered representative of a cyclone's intensity operationally...but during post analysis they may see data only hrs apart that suggest those winds were in fact representative after all. Hence, the official time/location may be adjusted as to when the TC become a tropical storm. Thanks for the information. Does the NHC also reanalyze cherries (tropical disturbances which are deemed to have more than a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development on their Tropical Weather Outlooks) and tropical depressions which were only 4 MPH too shy of becoming tropical storms? I know there was a cherry in September that had an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone and its surface winds were over 40 MPH already; so if it had a closed circulation, it would have been deemed as a tropical storm. Tropical Depression #10 this season had 35 MPH winds but never seemed to gain 40 MPH winds. Both of these systems were way out in the Atlantic so I doubt there were recon missions in them. Thus, I would think there is a remote chance that at least one or both of these systems get designated as tropical storms in the post-season analysis as the NHC would be able to better sample more data from these two systems. It's interesting to wonder the ramifications of this would be if those two systems and the hybrid system that affected Florida two months ago would get upgraded. That would bring up the named systems in the Atlantic this year from 18 to 21. Add to that the lemon out there in the Atlantic that may develop later on and that would be a possible 22 storms, which would place us on par for 2005's grand total of 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Thanks for the information. Does the NHC also reanalyze cherries (tropical disturbances which are deemed to have more than a 50% chance of tropical cyclone development on their Tropical Weather Outlooks) and tropical depressions which were only 4 MPH too shy of becoming tropical storms? I'm not sure how much, if any, reanalysis and possible upgrades of outlooked storms are performed. I don't see why they wouldn't include the higher end storms in a reanalysis project tho. That'd be a good question to ask the NHC. They've been discussing a couple reanalysis projects lately on their FB page and I'm sure they wouldn't mind the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 There's a huge, ongoing reanalysis effort going on at the NHC-- for the entire basin back to 1850. They're up to 1930 now. In that process, they've actually added a few cyclones that weren't previously in the database, so it can happen that later analysis brings "new" cyclones to light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 18, 2011 Share Posted November 18, 2011 Biggest lemon in the history of the known universe in the Atlantic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 18, 2011 Author Share Posted November 18, 2011 Hailstorm, here is an example of exactly what you were asking about-- from 2006: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL022006_Unnamed.pdf Read the first paragraph especially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 Giant lemon persists... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 19, 2011 Share Posted November 19, 2011 @HurricaneJosh: Wow, thanks for that interesting case study on that unclassified and outlandish cyclone! It was only deemed as having a low chance of tropical cyclone development; so I'm sure that the cherry in September that I mentioned above has a good chance to being added into the database. It's also impressive to see that the 2006 cyclone developed into a 50-MPH tropical storm at 40N latitude; when in reality, it's hard-pressed for a cyclone to maintain its intensity above 35N overall. @Ed Lizard: If that lemon can consolidate a bit more, it has a better chance of becoming a cyclone. I wonder how much shear is over this system right now because it looks like its northern outflow is hitting a wall to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.