wxmx Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 And then cause another coastal low along the Atlantic Seaboard. and then rinse and repeat after day 10? That would be crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 27, 2011 Author Share Posted October 27, 2011 Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 At this point, just to increase the numbers a bit more, I hope Rina dissipates and the remnants of former 97L ingest some of the vorticity from Rina, giving it a boost to develop. A lot of the models still keep Rina as the dominate feature, but I wouldn't be surprised if the larger broader circulation of 97L has a say in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 28, 2011 Author Share Posted October 28, 2011 At this point, just to increase the numbers a bit more, I hope Rina dissipates and the remnants of former 97L ingest some of the vorticity from Rina, giving it a boost to develop. A lot of the models still keep Rina as the dominate feature, but I wouldn't be surprised if the larger broader circulation of 97L has a say in this. Sicko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 That convection continues to fester deep in the SW corner of the Caribbean-- wiith an apparent turning extending into the EPAC. The Euro isn't showing a darn thing, though-- clean as a whistle in both basins through Day 10. I guess it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 We are in the last gasps of the season, and though there is something hybrid in the 0z Euro, it's far enough in time and with no other model support that I will ignore it for the time being. Some useless trivia: * The Atlantic basin is the only major basin without very low latitude majors (<10 for the N hemisphere and >-10 for the S hemi), even the N IO and the CPac have one each. * SC Graham '91 is the only very low latitude cat 5 (SS equivalent) * STY Owen '90 is the lowest latitude major @ 7.4N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Doesn't Ivan hold the record in the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 Doesn't Ivan hold the record in the Atlantic? Yep, at 10.2N...second being Flora '63 @10.7N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 We are in the last gasps of the season, and though there is something hybrid in the 0z Euro, it's far enough in time and with no other model support that I will ignore it for the time being. Some useless trivia: * The Atlantic basin is the only major basin without very low latitude majors (<10 for the N hemisphere and >-10 for the S hemi), even the N IO and the CPac have one each. * SC Graham '91 is the only very low latitude cat 5 (SS equivalent) * STY Owen '90 is the lowest latitude major @ 7.4N And TS Vamei was the closest TS to the Equator (1.5N). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 And TS Vamei was the closest TS to the Equator (1.5N). Cyclone Agni in 2004 in the Indian Ocean actually crossed the equator as a pre-classification disturbance with a circulation (may have been a TD under our system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 QBO Disagree. The start of the season could certainly be active, but I think we'll see an early end (very much in contrary to 2005), as QBO easterlies descend, imposing warm stratospheric temperature anomalies off the equator. I'm sticking with the numbers I posted in February: 14/8/5, with 12 storms between June-September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 31, 2011 Share Posted October 31, 2011 The Gulf of Honduras disturbance is better organized, and some turning is evident, though it's still lacking a closed center. As the trough to it's north depart, the ridge over MX will build East slowly, imparting a W to WSW motion to the disturbance (centered rougly over Roatan Is.). It probably has no more than 24 hours before most of the low goes over land. Because of the sprawling nature of the low and little time to organize before it's over land, I expect no further development of this disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 31, 2011 Author Share Posted October 31, 2011 The Gulf of Honduras disturbance is better organized, and some turning is evident, though it's still lacking a closed center. As the trough to it's north depart, the ridge over MX will build East slowly, imparting a W to WSW motion to the disturbance (centered rougly over Roatan Is.). It probably has no more than 24 hours before most of the low goes over land. Because of the sprawling nature of the low and little time to organize before it's over land, I expect no further development of this disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Where is everyone? Both 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro could be dropping hints for next week about maybe an STD, maybe even Sean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Where is everyone? Both 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro could be dropping hints for next week about maybe an STD, maybe even Sean? Nobody likes STDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Where is everyone? Both 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro could be dropping hints for next week about maybe an STD, maybe even Sean? It's been in the models since Tuesday. Hard to get too excited about it. Nobody likes STDs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 It's been in the models since Tuesday. Hard to get too excited about it. Well, it doesn't look to get too amazing and not a land threat, but somehow an STD/Sean, originating in the Carolinas, in November, well, yes, it is getting time to look elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere and there is the Day 4 or Day 5 severe threat, (SPC makes me angry dropping Monday risk area for DFW), but it'd still be cool. Especially if they named it STS Sean, send an aircraft, and find only reliable 30 knot winds. I want an STD Sean. Edit to Add- does JB read my posts at American or what? BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi Hybrid howler will form off Bahamas early next week, could evolve into classified storm off east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 Well, it doesn't look to get too amazing and not a land threat, but somehow an STD/Sean, originating in the Carolinas, in November, well, yes, it is getting time to look elsewhere in the Southern Hemisphere and there is the Day 4 or Day 5 severe threat, (SPC makes me angry dropping Monday risk area for DFW), but it'd still be cool. Especially if they named it STS Sean, send an aircraft, and find only reliable 30 knot winds. I want an STD, Sean. Edit to Add- does JB read my posts at American or what? But you haven't even bought me a bourbon yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 gaaame ovaaah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 But you haven't even bought me a bourbon yet? Crap, for a moment I thought I had put a comma in my STD Sean comment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 4, 2011 Share Posted November 4, 2011 gaaame ovaaah My Dad's old car used to 'diesel' after he switched off the ignition. Euro still sees the Tropical Atlantic equivalent of sputtering along, briefly, weakly, after the key is switched off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Not giving up hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted November 5, 2011 Share Posted November 5, 2011 Whatever it is it's not tropical, but: The Carnival Pride will be significantly delayed arriving from her current voyage as it is encountering very poor, unexpected weather conditions on its way back to Baltimore. The Captain has been forced to reduce the ship’s cruising speed and given the present weather conditions, we are unable dock until late Sunday night. Guests on the current voyage will be able to debark on Sunday from 8PM to 10PM or on Monday morning from 7AM – 9AM. I think the Pride is on its way between Freeport and (obviously) Baltimore. I did't even know there was anything going on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 There's some big, lame Lemon SW of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 There's some big, lame Lemon SW of Bermuda. The season is ova, can't have 05s every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Whatever it is it's not tropical, but: I think the Pride is on its way between Freeport and (obviously) Baltimore. I did't even know there was anything going on there. What is it with these freaking cruise ships and the "unexpected" poor marine conditions. With the access to data that's out there, it sounds more like CYA for ship captains making poor decisions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 What is it with these freaking cruise ships and the "unexpected" poor marine conditions. With the access to data that's out there, it sounds more like CYA for ship captains making poor decisions. Maybe all the cruise line subscribe to AccuWeather? Seriously though, I suspect you have a highly competitive industry with slim profit margins, requiring precise scheduling and rapid turn-around between cruises, and also a public that expects a cruise to have precise scheduling (because so many people are arriving/departing for the cruise by air travel) leading to intense pressure on the captains to stick to the schedule/itinerary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted November 6, 2011 Author Share Posted November 6, 2011 The season is ova, can't have 05s every year. No duh, Turtle. P.S. Check out my Jova video-- that one was kinda hawt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 JB's Forecast for 98L hits DaBenchmark!!!!! Joe BastardiCenter near 28 north, 69 west.. track should be to near 40 north/70 west by Thursday night http://t.co/S89riYKe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 6, 2011 Share Posted November 6, 2011 Something could develop out of this, just not something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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