wxmx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 surprised it is that high. Just shows that even a good gauge of activity levels like the ACE can be misleading. Outside 2-3 storms, this year was a complete dud. I guess the shear number of storms helped plenty. No, they didn't help much. The 5 hurricanes account for about 95 ACE points. 110 is around normal, with around 2.5 majors and 6 hurricanes being normal... so I'd catalog 2011 as a normal season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Season certainly isn't over yet... with the MJO in full swing right now, convective activity in the Atlantic is at a high point. The GFS has been pretty aggressive with this system in the central Atlantic, with TCG in the next 24-48 hours followed by an interesting faux-re-curve senerio, very similar to Philippe as the ridge builds back in. Could even make it to the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean if the pattern evolves like the GFS is suggesting. The GFS handled the pattern evolution around Philippe very well considering how abysmal the ECWMF did with continuous dissipation. The ECWMF shows this never making it to TC status, but with the way convection is building over the vorticity and the likelihood that its still got another 24-36 hours before the southerly shear really ramps up, I think there is plenty of time for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 From the dataset back to 1974, Highest amplitude on record: 4.01604 ... in phase 4 ... on Feb 14, 1985 Highest amplitude in phase 1: 3.50836 ... on Mar 25, 1997 Highest amplitude in October: 3.31127 ... in phase 5 ... on Oct 4, 1979 Highest amplitude in phase 1 in October: 2.75206 ... on Oct 30, 1985 Up to 3.505305 in phase 1 as of yesterday. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 We have two Lemons this morning. One E of the Windwards and another in the Carla cradle (SW Caribbean). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 While there not a lot of model support for the SW Caribbean disturbance, the Canadian, UKMET and Euro Ensembles are suggesting there may be some credence lending to development in this region over the next several days. Michelle (2001) comes to mind and with Fantasy Fest next week in Key West, it may be something to watch in the days ahead. HPC makes mention as well: CMC AND UKMET ALONG WITH A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF ECMWF ENS MEMBERS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NWRN CARRIBEAN NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Throw the UKMET into the mix also. NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.4N 80.8W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 The 0Z's GFS storm at 192 meanders for the rest of the run, beyond the resolution chop, but Mitch brings to mind steering can be weak and unpredictable in later October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 12z GFS is on board with SW Carib cyclogenesis. It's farther left than other models, Cape Gracias a Dios and BZ....very 2010ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looks like the 12z Euro has changed it's tune, and now it's showing a lot more vorticity in the SW Carib early in the run. It's looking more probable that'll have a TC down there Sat-Sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Looks like the 12z Euro has changed it's tune, and now it's showing a lot more vorticity in the SW Carib early in the run. It's looking more probable that'll have a TC down there Sat-Sun. I don't think the Euro solution is purely tropical... there's a decent H85 temp gradient associated with the QPF down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 I don't think the Euro solution is purely tropical... there's a decent H85 temp gradient associated with the QPF down there. It dies without much development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It dies without much development. I don't have the progs, but give the temp gradient, I'd guess shear is forecast to be fairly strong down there in Euroworld Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 Long-range GFS has Hurricane "Rina" striking Central America, then has a major Hurricane "Sean" aiming at Jamaica by November 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 20, 2011 Author Share Posted October 20, 2011 It dies without much development. Modelhugga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 HPC...fwiw: SOME FRONTAL CHANGE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO AFTN FINALS WITH A SLOWER FRONT THRU THE SRN PLAINS AND APPROACHING THE APPLCHNS DAY 7 THURS WITH ADDITIONAL ATTENTION MADE TO THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT AND THREAT TO THE WRN CARRIBEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorMu Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It would take far too much MoJO to pull a system anywhere close to Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 20, 2011 Share Posted October 20, 2011 It would take far too much MoJO to pull a system anywhere close to Texas. Our tropical season is over in Texas for 2011. Nothing can change that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 GFS EnKF members are quite aggressive with the Western Caribbean disturbance, with most members developing a TC within the next 4 days. About half have an intense TC over the NW Caribbean by next Tuesday. Although the operational and ensemble members of the ECMWF aren't anywhere near as aggressive, it appears increasingly likely that this will slowly develop into a TC over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 GFS EnKF members are quite aggressive with the Western Caribbean disturbance, with most members developing a TC within the next 4 days. About half have an intense TC over the NW Caribbean by next Tuesday. Although the operational and ensemble members of the ECMWF aren't anywhere near as aggressive, it appears increasingly likely that this will slowly develop into a TC over the next few days. Are you thinking a hurricane with this? And what general trajectory do you think the system would take? P.S. What did you think of Jova's shock ending-- the sudden bombing out right before landfall? Were you surprised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Are you thinking a hurricane with this? And what general trajectory do you think the system would take? P.S. What did you think of Jova's shock ending-- the sudden bombing out right before landfall? Were you surprised? It would be helpful if this thing could gain some latitude over the next 4 days while there is still troughing to the north. By Monday-Tuesday, it appears ridging builds in over the Southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico, which could drive the would-be TC slowly westward into Central America. If so, I don't think it'll be too intense as it won't have enough time. The current structure, easterly shear, and some mid-level dry air are all suggestive of slow development over the next few days, not a quick spin-up. However, if this gets up into the NW Caribbean and spends all that time over water, this could be quite intense as suggested by about half of the GFS EnKF ensemble members. Regarding Jova, I'm glad you got a great chase out of it! I'm not sold though that it bombed out before landfall. It may have intensified somewhat before landfall, as suggested by the slightly improved satellite appearance and improving microwave structure. However, as intense as the conditions were at your location, I don't think it's necessarily evidence of Jova's max intensity given the i) enhanced elevation, ii) possible local topographic effects, and iii) getting lucky and being at THE location of max winds at landfall. If I had to take a stab at it, I would say it's highly doubtful that Jova reattained major hurricane status at landfall, which is really a testament to how impressive true Cat 2 conditions really are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 It would be helpful if this thing could gain some latitude over the next 4 days while there is still troughing to the north. By Monday-Tuesday, it appears ridging builds in over the Southeast U.S. and Gulf of Mexico, which could drive the would-be TC slowly westward into Central America. If so, I don't think it'll be too intense as it won't have enough time. The current structure, easterly shear, and some mid-level dry air are all suggestive of slow development over the next few days, not a quick spin-up. However, if this gets up into the NW Caribbean and spends all that time over water, this could be quite intense as suggested by about half of the GFS EnKF ensemble members. Regarding Jova, I'm glad you got a great chase out of it! I'm not sold though that it bombed out before landfall. It may have intensified somewhat before landfall, as suggested by the slightly improved satellite appearance and improving microwave structure. However, as intense as the conditions were at your location, I don't think it's necessarily evidence of Jova's max intensity given the i) enhanced elevation, ii) possible local topographic effects, and iii) getting lucky and being at THE location of max winds at landfall. If I had to take a stab at it, I would say it's highly doubtful that Jova reattained major hurricane status at landfall, which is really a testament to how impressive true Cat 2 conditions really are. Interesting take on Jova. I agree with a lot of it, but perhaps not all of it. Since it's a meaty-enough topic-- and not related to the NATL-- I'm going to respond to this in the Jova chase thread so we can continue the discussion there. Thanks, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A large stationary Mandarin across the SW Caribbean this morning has been designated 96L. There is still some uncertainty just where this disturbance will head, but a slow drift N seems plausible and organization should take some time. It is possible a TC could develop while in the SW Caribbean, but increasing shear should keep any rapid development in check. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 A large stationary Mandarin across the SW Caribbean this morning has been designated 96L. There is still some uncertainty just where this disturbance will head, but a slow drift N seems plausible and organization should take some time. It is possible a TC could develop while in the SW Caribbean, but increasing shear should keep any rapid development in check. We will see. Look at the vast amount of dry, cool air that has invaded the entire Gulf and Western Atlantic. Seems the door has been closed for anything making a run at the USA with any strong intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Look at the vast amount of dry, cool air that has invaded the entire Gulf and Western Atlantic. Seems the door has been closed for anything making a run at the USA with any strong intensity. Not saying I think anything close to this will happen, but what you posted does not mean we can't get a major into the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nobody has seen LEK on the tropical boards the last 1.5 months.....TC formation has been putrid, and those TC's that have formed have either been no threat to land and/or not very interesting..... . . . ....that's about to change... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Look at the vast amount of dry, cool air that has invaded the entire Gulf and Western Atlantic. Seems the door has been closed for anything making a run at the USA with any strong intensity. Moisture will begin to creep N in the days ahead back into the NW Caribbean and perhaps Southern Gulf. Most of the guidance shows increasing tropical moisture spreading N and the next frontal boundary has been delayed until later next week into the NW Gulf Coastal Regions. Not saying I think anything close to this will happen, but what you posted does not mean we can't get a major into the US. I agree. That said, there are a lot of activities going on across S FL and the Keys next week and rain chances do certainly look to increase. Even the HPC mentions that deep tropical moisture could be draw NE along the EC from whatever happens in the Caribbean, so it is something to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nobody has seen LEK on the tropical boards the last 1.5 months.....TC formation has been putrid, and those TC's that have formed have either been no threat to land and/or not very interesting..... . . . ....that's about to change... Really? Care to speculate on track and maybe intensity. UK and ECM look interesting for sfl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nobody has seen LEK on the tropical boards the last 1.5 months.....TC formation has been putrid, and those TC's that have formed have either been no threat to land and/or not very interesting..... . . . ....that's about to change... Tell us more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 21, 2011 Author Share Posted October 21, 2011 Nobody has seen LEK on the tropical boards the last 1.5 months.....TC formation has been putrid, and those TC's that have formed have either been no threat to land and/or not very interesting..... . . . ....that's about to change... Titillating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Euro op was rather interesting. It takes a tropical system up into the se Gulf as a trough to the north at d4 misses the system and it seems like the leftover shear from the departing trough weakens with ridging building in its place. Seems like there is a little shear left in its place, but it has an interesting look as it will traverse high octane fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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