wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Or Guatemala? Haha, what happened to us... we lost a bit of synch (edited with El Salvador before seeing your post).... Anyways, then it's N MX or S/C TX (only two canes have hit the W GOM after 10/15 since 1851) or FL after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Haha, what happened to us... we lost a bit of synch (edited with El Salvador before seeing your post).... Anyways, then it's N MX or S/C TX (only two canes have hit the W GOM after 10/15 since 1851) or FL after that. Does this mean Steve will be talking 'Carla Cradle' on the local forum for another week? Anyway, I'm not giving up on a 1780 scenario for the Lesser and Greater Antilles, myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Euro not well supported by the ensembles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Euro not well supported by the ensembles... The sw cutoff bias? Probably more a myth now than what it was in previous Euro versions, but it could be... Like I said a few days ago, I see a W coast trough, and a SE ridge pattern... Pattern in models, other than the Euro, especially the 12z Euro, has been very progressive with the trough in the W coast swinging east in the 6-10 day timeframe... this latest Euro cuts off an ULL in the SW CONUS, which helps the ridge stay put and even rebuild back west in the GOM.... You can't see a more different pattern between the GFS and Euro@ day 10, but it's consequence of this trough cutting off or not.... There's nothing else out there supporting the Euro solution, so even if I proposed that kind of pattern, I won't buy it from the model yet, unless I see more model support. Also, the ensemble mean could be the result of a few members keeping the trough energy west and some swinging it to the east, that's the problem of only looking at the mean. OTOH, the W Carib cyclone moving towards the Yucatan or Yucatan channel, I think that's pretty plausible, and give it a 30-40% of eventually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looks like another mess down around the Yucatan early next week. I'm not sure where, or even which basin, we'll see genesis. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 12, 2011 Share Posted October 12, 2011 Looks like another mess down around the Yucatan early next week. I'm not sure where, or even which basin, we'll see genesis. Ugh. You think that will come from 12-E? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Impossible not to get above average storms with this high amplitude MJO wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Plus some strong low level westerly anomalies in the EPac and W Carib Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Paul Roundy had some interesting things to say about the MJO cycle today in our Tropical Weather discussion. First, if the amplitude in phase 1 from the ECWMF were to verify, it would be the greatest phase 1 amplitude in October of all time. In addition, he feels that there is some super-positioning going on between a weak to moderate MJO signal currently along with the current atmospheric effects being caused by the current phase of the IOD. In essence, the MJO signal in the phase space diagram is being amplified further by non MJO effects within the Indian Ocean, so the strength of this current MJO might not be as intense as the phase space diagrams would suggest. Still though, I don't think its any accident that we are now seeing the potential of a monsoon gyre spin up between the Atlantic and East Pacific very similar to what occurred during the last week of September last year. The Atlantic should continue to remain pretty convectively active over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942011.invest FSTDAR U 040 010 0000 201110131326 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 94, 2011, DB, O, 2011101312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL942011 AL, 94, 2011101312, , BEST, 0, 266N, 727W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, I haven't had my first cup of coffee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Crazy NAM also seems a bit enthusiastic about developments down in the caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Crazy NAM also seems a bit enthusiastic about developments down in the caribbean. Doesn't the NAM blow chunks when it comes to tropical forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I haven't had my first cup of coffee. I am an idiot, the Slop Gyre is not 94L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Doesn't the NAM blow chunks when it comes to tropical forecasting? Yes it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I would definitely take the "over" on the stated odds of the Yucatan area forming something, land interaction or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I would definitely take the "over" on the stated odds of the Yucatan area forming something, land interaction or not. The mandarin might get named, but its hard to get too excited about anything forming about the same latitude, and East of, Miami in mid-October. Of course, I suspect the Slop Gyre will get sheared apart if it gets much North of the Tropic of Cancer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I doubt either one gets named. The mandarin will be plagued by shear and it gets worse the farther north it moves. The lemon is a land hugger, and will probably remain that way as part of the monsoon gyre, which will probably drench big time SE MX, and Northern CA (GT, BZ, HN, SV). There might be a small window of opportunity, if ridging builds in the N GOM (the farther north, the better, so it doesn't act as a block), and it can crawl to the BOC, but I don't think it will become more than a rainmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I agree with you, but I would take a bet the "lemon" has a considerably better chance than "near zero" to develop, i.e., I'd take a 6-1 wager on a depression forming. I doubt either one gets named. The mandarin will be plagued by shear and it gets worse the farther north it moves. The lemon is a land hugger, and will probably remain that way as part of the monsoon gyre, which will probably drench big time SE MX, and Northern CA (GT, BZ, HN, SV). There might be a small window of opportunity, if ridging builds in the N GOM (the farther north, the better, so it doesn't act as a block), and it can crawl to the BOC, but I don't think it will become more than a rainmaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 The buoy off Cape Canaveral has been sustained tropical storm force since around 10 am this morning and just had a gust to 50knts......so even though this isnt a true tropical system ( at least not yet) there is plenty of wind along the coast, pretty nasty radar sig as well still doesnt quite look like a true tropical system quite yet http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41009 Looking pretty intense on radar: Melbourne, FL Radar Radar shows possible circulation. I am JUST south of there in Port Saint Lucie with a bright moon overhead and never ending lightening just to the north. Surreal to say the least. I'm fairly convinced that this thing will be declared an unnamed tropical storm in reanalysis. I had seen a few surface obs / meteograms supporting at least a depression but I didn't save them. I never go to weather.com, but I was informed of a pretty convincing blog update featuring these obs: http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/ Check out the wind and pressure measurements: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I'm fairly convinced that this thing will be declared an unnamed tropical storm in reanalysis. I had seen a few surface obs / meteograms supporting at least a depression but I didn't save them. I never go to weather.com, but I was informed of a pretty convincing blog update featuring these obs: http://www.weather.com/blog/weather/ Check out the wind and pressure measurements: Given the upper level pattern, I would be really really surprised if this was designated a TS after post analysis, but I would be equally surprised if it WAS NOT designated as an unnamed STS after the fact. Latent heat release was not the primary mechanism for intensification...jet forcing from the negative tilt trough aloft was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Given the upper level pattern, I would be really really surprised if this was designated a TS after post analysis, but I would be equally surprised if it WAS NOT designated as an unnamed STS after the fact. Latent heat release was not the primary mechanism for intensification...jet forcing from the negative tilt trough aloft was. Yeah, I probably should have said subtropical, but my main point was that it should have been something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Whats the strongest MJO amplitude ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Whats the strongest MJO amplitude ever? From the dataset back to 1974, Highest amplitude on record: 4.01604 ... in phase 4 ... on Feb 14, 1985 Highest amplitude in phase 1: 3.50836 ... on Mar 25, 1997 Highest amplitude in October: 3.31127 ... in phase 5 ... on Oct 4, 1979 Highest amplitude in phase 1 in October: 2.75206 ... on Oct 30, 1985 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Looks like both 94L and 95L have perked up this morning. The genesis of 95L was eerily similar to Nicole last year, but this system might be trapped for a while longer. I'm still thinking we won't see anything much stronger than a weak TS, but I'm leaving the door open for more interesting things if it can survive beyond the frontal passage early next week. 94L has a shot to develop too thanks to the favorable MJO phase enhancing convection alongside a kelvin wave passage, but it will have to be in the next 24 hours before the shear exceeds 30 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Wow-- after a lot of optimism, October so far has really failed to produce on this side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 GFS offers up a witches brew of tropical low swill down around Cuba for Halloween eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 October is a massive failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 October is a massive failure. For the most part, this season was a massive failure. What's the current ACE number btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 For the most part, this season was a massive failure. What's the current ACE number btw? Around 110 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Around 110 surprised it is that high. Just shows that even a good gauge of activity levels like the ACE can be misleading. Outside 2-3 storms, this year was a complete dud. I guess the shear number of storms helped plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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