Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV

[Harbourton]

Just a quick observation-if something can get going in the western Carribean, there's plenty of warm water.

[wxmx]

Hybrid genesis looking more likely this weekend around FL.

[LithiaWx]

The 12z GFS brings Philippe back towards the SE coast after it performs a cyclonic loop in the central Atlantic, It could become Rina if Philippe dissipates. There is a distinct disturbance down in the Bahamas as well with a marked pattern shift over the Eastern conus that would allow for something to threaten the SE Coast. I'm thinking October will be more interesting than September.

I thought the name would stick.... Wouldn't the name still be Philippe? ie what Ivan did....

[HurricaneJosh]

Hybrid genesis looking more likely this weekend around FL.

[Ed Lizard]

Just a quick observation-if something can get going in the western Carribean, there's plenty of warm water.

Looks lemon worthy to me.

[Riptide]

October can't be duller than September, can it?

I always envisioned September as the month featuring the most significant hurricane landfalls. The Gulf and Caribbean probably peak in October though.

[Riptide]

I thought the name would stick.... Wouldn't the name still be Philippe? ie what Ivan did....

Yeah, I agree with you. It's possible that Philippe's LLC is a different entity or that it escapes northeastward and another LLC could form.

[Ed Lizard]

I always envisioned September as the month featuring the most significant hurricane landfalls. The Gulf and Caribbean probably peak in October though.

I'm a spectator now. My team is out of the playoffs, but another epic New England versus Giants SuperBowl style landfall, I'll be watching with the equivalent of beer, chips and salsa.

Imagine a Hazel this year...

[SunnyFL]

Just a quick observation-if something can get going in the western Carribean, there's plenty of warm water.

[Amped]

Lol the ensemble mean does seem rather reasonable however.

Phase divide by zero looks right to me.

[Srain]

The nodels are in rather good agreement in developing a disturbance near Cuba and moving N into the E Gulf/Florida next week. While the details are still up in the air, it does appear a very wet pattern is setting up for the EC with abundant moisture and a favorable MJO pulse as well as a robust short wave approaching from the Plains. Then add to the mix an active Pacifc sub tropical jet and possibly landfalling EPAC cyclone, the pattern it ripe for a heavy rainfall event. We wil see.

[bluewave]

Yeah,the coupled upper jet structure would support a significant subtropical/hybrid development with strong winds and heavy rains

if the storm develops the way the Euro has been showing.

[Ed Lizard]

The Canadian never disappoints.

[wxsmwhrms]

Globals are now in pretty good agreement on a subtropical type system getting going in SE Gulf in about 4-5 days, and then moving NNW toward the FL panhandle. ECMWF is a bit faster with the whole evolution, but seems to be increasing agreement on the general idea.

[MJO812]

18z DGEX is interesting.

[KEITH L.I]

18z DGEX is interesting.

Looks like Irene!

[phil882]

From NASA: The AMSR-E antenna stopped spinning at 0726GMT Oct 4, most likely due to aging lubricant in the mechanism. AMSR-E is currently not producing any data.

This is probably the end of its decade long service for microwave imagery.

[OKpowdah]

From NASA: The AMSR-E antenna stopped spinning at 0726GMT Oct 4, most likely due to aging lubricant in the mechanism. AMSR-E is currently not producing any data.

This is probably the end of its decade long service for microwave imagery.

Just saw that too. That stinks. Not the best timing funding wise either

[Amped]

From NASA: The AMSR-E antenna stopped spinning at 0726GMT Oct 4, most likely due to aging lubricant in the mechanism. AMSR-E is currently not producing any data.

This is probably the end of its decade long service for microwave imagery.

Same thing happened to quickscat. Nasa just said it was passed life expectancy oh well.

There are plenty of other imicrowave instruments, but it does put some gaps in the data..

[icebreaker5221]

CMC forecasting a ninja turtle solution over the Gulf:

[Plokoon111]

^ Wow hahahaha. Interesting Turtle.

Hopefully it hits down there, because if it were to hit the east coast like Irene then that would mean 2 weeks of powerwashing the garage and basement were for nothing.

[Srain]

HPC mentioned a low confidence forecast and about a 5 degrees further W shift with the STS or whatever it becomes. Also of note in the longer range, the 12Z Euro hints a rather large disturbance in the NW Caribbean heading generally N and W into the Western Gulf.

[GaWx]

Folks,

The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC.

Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase.

Edit: Fwiw, further into this run (fantasyland) there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up with two TC US hits within 10 days of each other! I bet Josh will enjoy seeing the modeled FL hit.

[HurricaneJosh]

Folks,

The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC.

Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase.

Edit: Fwiw, further into this run (fantasyland) there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up with two TC US hits within 10 days of each other! I bet Josh will enjoy seeing the modeled FL hit.

Yep-- or the GA hit if it could become a hurricane! As you know, there's a precedent for a big Oct hit in GA (that sexy Cat 4 in 1898).

Nice to finally see some interesting details in the long range. Although we've had Ophelia and Philippe on the map these past couple of weeks, it's very much felt like a deep lull.

[GaWx]

Yep-- or the GA hit if it could become a hurricane! As you know, there's a precedent for a big Oct hit in GA (that sexy Cat 4 in 1898).

Fwiw, 1898 was during a weak La Nina (similar to 2011).

OCT GA TC landfalls since 1851:

1) 1898 #7 MH: weak La Nina

2) 1916 #12 TS: strong La Nina

3) 1947 #7 TS: negative neutral

4) 1947 #8 H: negative neutral

5) 1985 Isabel TS: negative neutral

Note that all were during a negative ENSO, which is the case for 2011. Dates of these Oct. landfalls: 2, 4, 7, 10, and 15.

[NavarreDon]

Might be to much & if so one of the mods can delete it. I found todays AFD from the mets at Tally a good read.

.EXTENDED TERM...(Sunday through Thursday).

The extended forecast is beginning to come into a litter better

focus as most global models are converging closer to the ECMWF

solution regarding the subtropical low that is forecast to

develop. the 04/12 UTC and 05/00 UTC runs of the ECMWF have been

consistent with producing a weak closed surface low near the

western tip of Cuba and the Florida Straits and then slowly

deepening the low as it pushed north to near Apalachicola by late

Tuesday. Higher confidence was placed in the ECMWF the last

several runs due to its better consistency with this feature, and

that continues to be the case. Therefore, the extended term was

weighted about two-thirds ECMWF and one third GFS which has moved

much closer to that solution. The fact that the 05/00 UTC GFS

Ensemble Mean is very similar to the ECMWF lends more confidence

to the forecast than the past two nights.

Obviously the westward trend in the models over the past 24 to 48

hours places the CWA more in line for heavier axis of

precipitation with any such low that would be tracking north. The

GFS Ensemble Mean places nearly 3.5 inches of rain just south of

Apalachicola by Wednesday Afternoon and 2 inches across our

southeastern counties. With increasing model support for

rain, pops were nudged up another 5 to 10 percent beyond the

weekend.

The evolution of this low is still very interesting. As the

pressure and height falls take place around the Florida Straits

into the weekend, that area will be in somewhat of a coupled jet

structure and certainly in the right entrance region of a 60-70 kt

upper level jet. There will be horizontal temperature and

thickness gradient from north-south across the developing low.

Therefore its origins will not be tropical in nature. Yet as the

low develops, the ECMWF and GFS model solutions show increasing

tropical characteristics. By Monday-Tuesday...they indicate more

of a warm core structure...with slightly higher 1000-500 mb

thickness at the center of the vertically stacked

circulation...and thermal wind vectors in the same layer wrap

around the low in a clockwise fashion. The low will be passing

over water that has SSTs still 29-30C...and 850-300 bulk shear

values over much of the Eastern Gulf drops to around 5-10 knots by

Monday. Both are indicative of favorable conditions for tropical

development. Certainly this low will be one to keep an eye

on...even if it only attains subtropical status. At the very least

it should be a breezy and wet start to the next work week.

[GaWx]

Folks,

The Wed 18Z gfs has what looks to me like a full-fledged tropical storm coming ashore near Brunswick, GA, early on 10/11. This is defintely something to monitor as the pattern of persistent (4+ days) and rather strong NE US ridging aloft and at the surface is the kind that can allow for this in Oct. This setup typically allows for a westerly component of steering and no safe recurve. Also, this is not way out in model fantasyland as it is only 5-6 days from now. SST's are in the high 70's to near 80 F near shore and in the middle 80's in the Gulf Stream, plenty warm enough to allow for a TC in the area. Also, upper levels appear to me to be warm enough by then and upper winds conducive enough to support a TC.

Looking at climo/history, it being La Nina makes this a bit more likely than if it were another ENSO phase.

Edit: Fwiw, further into this run (fantasyland) there is a hurricane hit on SW FL on 10/20. Wow! This run should wake people up with two TC US hits within 10 days of each other! I bet Josh will enjoy seeing the modeled FL hit.

Followup to the post from yesterday's 18Z GFS:

Non-GFS models have still yet to be all that threatening with regard to any potential SE US TC threat early next week. The Euro runs have been pretty weak with any landfalls from their Gulf solutions. However, as of the Thu 12Z GFS, the last four GFS runs have shown a more organized TS landfalling anywhere from NE FL to CHS on Tuesday 10/11. That is pretty consistent and it is only five days away (i.e., somewhat predictable):

18Z Wed: Brunswick 1000 mb

00Z Thu: St. Augustine 1005 mb

06Z Thu: Charleston 1003 mb

12Z Thu: Brunswick 1003 mb

Edit: Looking more closely at these GFS runs, there is now a weak warm/tropical piece of energy located near Hispaniola that moves WNW to the SE Bahamas. Meanwhile, another parcel of energy/moisture (cold...note the falling 850's in this area), now north of 32 N, is pushed south over the next two days by the rather strong and deep high building over the NE US. Once these two pieces of energy/moisture collide over the central Bahamas, a more defined surface low forms, subsequently strengthens. From there, the low moves mainly NNW and brings warmer air with it, which is indicative of a system quickly becoming tropical (check out the warming 850 temp.'s and that the warmest 850's move with this low). That is my take as to what the GFS is doing. Any other opinions?

[GaWx]

Folks,

The 12Z Euro is sticking to its E GOM surface low solution, which it has had for at least three runs in a row. So, we have the GFS' last four SE US coast landfalls vs. the Euro's last three GOM solutions. Which will verify to be closer? Should we go with King Euro? Any bets and why?

[LithiaWx]

Folks,

The 12Z Euro is sticking to its E GOM surface low solution, which it has had for at least three runs in a row. So, we have the GFS' last four SE US coast landfalls vs. the Euro's last three GOM solutions. Which will verify to be closer? Should we go with King Euro? Any bets and why?

The 12Z Canadian does not make the choice any easier. It appears to have two systems one in the GoM and one on the GA/SC coast.....

[MarkSC]

from HPC afternoon update. The dual low idea is gaining credence:

AFTERNOON FINALS HAVE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WITH THE UNCERTAIN SFCDEVELOPMENT NEAR FLORIDA. THERE REMAINS AND EAST SIDE/WEST SIDEDIFFERENCE AS MENTIONED ABOVE AND NOT CONVINCED THAT EITHER ISRIGHT. 12Z UKMET SCENARIO OF TAKING IT FROM ITS ORIGIN IN THELOWER BAHAMAS WEST THRU THE FLORIDA STRAIT THEN CLOSE IN UP THEWEST COAST OF FLORIDA WHILE REFORMING ANOTHER CENTER OFF NERNFL/GA SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. HAVE DEPICTED THIS SET UP ANDTHEN BRINGING THE SFC LOW CENTER UP ALONG THE EAST COAST DAYS 6AND 7 WED/THU WITH REFORMATION ALONG THE INVERTED COASTALTROF/WARM FRONT. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTS THE SFC PROGS BUT CONTINUEDHIGH CONFIDENCE WITH BRISK ONSHORE WINDS/HIGH SEAS AND HEAVYRAINFALL AS THE SFC HIGH TO THE NORTH REMAINS THE DOMINANTFEATURE.