Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV

[hm8]

What's the record for lowest ACE accumulated per storm in a season, if such a record is kept?

[U_Thant]

What's the record for lowest ACE accumulated per storm in a season, if such a record is kept?

Looks like 1970 (3.4 ACE units/Storm) is well out in front, followed by 1972 (4.0 A/S), 1977 (4.2), 1977, 1983 and 1991 (4.25), 1968 (4.375), 1994 (4.6), 1993 (4.75), 1982 and 2007 (4.8), and then 1987 (4.85). 2011 has about 5 ACE units/Storm.

I used wikipedia as my source, and the seasonal totals on there are rounded, so caveat emptor. But 1970 appears to be the most milquetoast season on record.

http://en.wikipedia...._cyclone_energy

[Ginx snewx]

Yep.

P.S. There's a new lemon near the Bahamas.

Hmmm

[Ed Lizard]

Hmmm

91L, but I'm not starting a thread because if it gets upgraded while I'm asleep I get grief over it.

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[Ed Lizard]

There is nothing in that graph to indicate such a thing.

OK, the Nino in 2013 is a bit of a stretch...

[NaoPos]

now an orange in the Bahamas:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo/gtwo_atl_sub.shtml?area1#contents

. AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE

NORTHERN BAHAMAS...OR ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE

CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...

AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A

TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY

NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

[U_Thant]

Looks like 1970 (3.4 ACE units/Storm) is well out in front, followed by 1972 (4.0 A/S), 1977 (4.2), 1977, 1983 and 1991 (4.25), 1968 (4.375), 1994 (4.6), 1993 (4.75), 1982 and 2007 (4.8), and then 1987 (4.85). 2011 has about 5 ACE units/Storm.

I used wikipedia as my source, and the seasonal totals on there are rounded, so caveat emptor. But 1970 appears to be the most milquetoast season on record.

http://en.wikipedia...._cyclone_energy

Speaking of 1970, check out TD 19 from that year.

I've never seen a track even close to that long for a TD. Is there anything else remotely close to this in the record books? Of course, the caveat about it's intensity is that it occurred during the relative infancy (the POES or pre-GOES era) of weather satellite data.

http://en.wikipedia....teen_%281970%29

[Amped]

Not dead, there are still POS TS forming every day.

[OKpowdah]

16 / 3 / 2 ... that's just messed up

[forkyfork]

3 circulations

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0Z&overlay=01100000&loop=yes

[downeastnc]

3 circulations

http://radar.weather...100000&loop=yes

Southern one looks decent, been watching this loop http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-rb.html

Could be interesting for the Carolinas if something forms, if it hit this area it would add to the already impressive rain totals the state has had the last several days.....and prolong the mosquito agony most of us are experiancing since Irene......

[OKpowdah]

3 circulations

http://radar.weather...100000&loop=yes

NHC will probably name each one

[phil882]

I think radar highlights the problem... the low level vorticity (which is spawning all these small circulations) is elongating with time as the mid-latitude low pressure that has been rotating around the Great Lakes is slowly moving southeastward. The ECWMF highlighted this problem at 00z this morning and I think its unlikely we will see any one of theses areas of rotation spin up into anything significant enough before this feature is absorbed into the baroclinic boundary associated with the mid-latitude cutoff.

[HurricaneJosh]

Two lame fish storms and a fizzling lemon. lolz What a bunch of crap.

I'd rather just have a clean map.

[HurricaneJosh]

OK, I cannot take any more North Atlantic patheticness tonight.

So how 'bout some pornografía nostálgica?

I was chatting with Jorge tonight, and he dug up this old MW shot from the archives: Wilma within 2 hr of peak intensity (882 mb/160 kt). Notice the symmetry of the banding, the pronounced concentric eyewalls, and also that tiny inner core. At this time, the radius of hurricane winds was only 15 nmi, and the eye was only 2 nmi (!!) in diameter-- so small the MW image couldn't resolve such fine details.

Total hawt sh*t:

[phil882]

OK, I cannot take any more North Atlantic patheticness tonight.

So how 'bout some pornografía nostálgica?

I was chatting with Jorge tonight, and he dug up this old MW shot from the archives: Wilma within 2 hr of peak intensity (882 mb/160 kt). Notice the symmetry of the banding, the pronounced concentric eyewalls, and also that tiny inner core. At this time, the radius of hurricane winds was only 15 nmi, and the eye was only 2 nmi (!!) in diameter-- so small the MW image can't resolve such fine details.

Total hawt sh*t:

Yep... and I'd hate to bring over the topic we were discussing in the EPac, but its worth nothing that the satellite estimates were WAY off with the tiny core of Wilma. ADT never even got to 140 knots. This just goes to show you how critical recon is. Without the flight data that reconnasince provides, this storm would have not even been classified as a category 5 hurricane. Crazy if you think about it.

[Amped]

Yep... and I'd hate to bring over the topic we were discussing in the EPac, but its worth nothing that the satellite estimates were WAY off with the tiny core of Wilma. ADT never even got to 140 knots. This just goes to show you how critical recon is. Without the flight data that reconnasince provides, this storm would have not even been classified as a category 5 hurricane. Crazy if you think about it.

I think that scalem is in knots so it would have been about 160mph at peak.

[phil882]

I think that scalem is in knots so it would have been about 160mph at peak.

The scale is in knots, but note that the graph does not make it to 140 knots. The ADT estimates were between 6.5 and 7.0 which would imply that based on this particular satellite estimate Wilma would have been just shy of Category 5 status.

If you go back through the archives and look at the discussions during Wilma, the NHC curiously made no mention of the satellite estimates during the entire duration that Wilma was a category 5 storm. My hunch is that it was likely because none of the satellite estimates supported Category 5 intensity as suggested by the image above.

My hunch is that the bias stems from not being able to properly resolve a TC when the eye size becomes smaller than 10km. Since IR satellite imagery resolution of 4km, not being able to properly see how warm the cloud top temperatures are in an hurricane eye can cause significant if not major intensity error in Dvorak estimates.

[Amped]

The scale is in knots, but note that the graph does not make it to 140 knots. The ADT estimates were between 6.5 and 7.0 which would imply that based on this particular satellite estimate Wilma would have been just shy of Category 5 status.

If you go back through the archives and look at the discussions during Wilma, the NHC curiously made no mention of the satellite estimates during the entire duration that Wilma was a category 5 storm. My hunch is that it was likely because none of the satellite estimates supported Category 5 intensity as suggested by the image above.

My hunch is that the bias stems from not being able to properly resolve a TC when the eye size becomes smaller than 10km. Since IR satellite imagery resolution of 4km, not being able to properly see how warm the cloud top temperatures are in an hurricane eye can cause significant if not major intensity error in Dvorak estimates.

Willma was a lot smaller than 10KM so the 150-155 estimates weren't all that bad IMO still showing a high CAT 4. Can't expect satellites to see somethiong that small.

[am19psu]

Ugh. My MJO forecast is going to bust. I'm losing hope.

[wxmx]

Ugh. My MJO forecast is going to bust. I'm losing hope.

Delayed but not denied? My guess is the Atlantic is going to lit up like a Christmas tree after the 10th, with the first signs showing up the 5th. I think the first 10 days of October will see one or maybe two interesting EPac storms.

[Srain]

Delayed but not denied? My guess is the Atlantic is going to lit up like a Christmas tree after the 10th, with the first signs showing up the 5th. I think the first 10 days of October will see one or maybe two interesting EPac storms.

I agree. The signals are clear we are in a transition stage for the next week or so, then it appears the NALT will awaken from a long slumber. Keep an eye on the Carla cradle..

[phil882]

It looks like the MJO is finally going to have some amplitude! All aboard Mid-October if this persists!

[HM]

My best guess is that a combination of the La Niña intensifying as a +QBO wave downwelled caused the walker cell to allow more sinking air across the eastern Atlantic and Africa (enhanced uplift in W PAC/IO). Throw in the drought in Texas and you may have a recipe for frequent but weak named storms. This is completely anecdotal based off what I have been witnessing and have read about these features. Perhaps we can run a statistical thing about +QBO at 50mb downwelling during a La Niña or cool event and see how the walker cells react. This year also had an unfavorable convergent wave timing during September but this is all connected to the original idea with the Walker Cell.

[Amped]

It looks like the MJO is finally going to have some amplitude! All aboard Mid-October if this persists!

Thanks this thread needed a positive post.

[Srain]

FWIW, the GFS continues to advertise a rather large TC developing in the longer range within the Carla cradle. We will see.

[am19psu]

I try not to bash JB too much, because I think he IS an insightful, if bust prone, forecaster, but his tweets last night this morning really show a lack of fundamental understanding of tropical cyclones.

[GaWx]

**FWIW** (hardly anything that far out....but it has much entertainment value), the 12Z TUE GFS has a classic W. Caribbean hurricane moving over Grand Cayman at 372 hours and then headed NNW toward W. Cuba 10/13 with eyes potentially on S FL around 10/14-5. With this being a +AMO La Nina and it being Oct., this scenario is believable. But alas, it is only one model run and it is out two weeks into the future. Regardless, many here are bored to death and could use a "pick me up".

Dates of the 13 CONUS 10/1-15 H hits during +AMO La Ninas (majors bolded): 10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/5, 10/8, 10/11, 10/12, 10/13, 10/14, 10/15, and 10/15. This suggests that the two biggest threat periods per climo may be 10/2-5 and 10/11-15.

Going back to 1877, there have been only two other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15 during the other 106 seasons!! So, 9 major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only two during the other 106 seasons!!

I'm not predicting anything. I'm just saying that this climo tool says that it wouldn't be surprising to see a H form in the the W. Caribbean and subsequently threaten the U.S. by mid Oct. Don't hug or shoot the messenger lol.

[OSUmetstud]

More favorable conditions on the horizon?

[wxmx]

More favorable conditions on the horizon?

I think this is for real, the MJO signal, not the cyclone...couple that with a strengthening Niña, and you get some interesting late season activity in full throttle...at least two weeks of serious fun, IMO.