HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Which should be taken with a grain of salt after seeing the modeled/actual paths of 92L. Obviously-- all ten-day modeling should be taken with a grain of salt. But are you saying we shouldn't discuss it? I'm not sure what you're getting at. This thread is for discussing long-range modeling, among other things. No one here suggested that a hurricane is going to hit FL in ten days. Relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What matters is that the GFS (and other models) take a significant cyclone much further W than anything we've seen this year or last year. Best post of the thread right here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Best post of the thread right here. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 The Hispaniola factor is silly to speculate about ten days out. Hispaniola is a relatively small target and obviously the modeling this many days out is going to be course. I don't even know why people mention factors like Hispaniola ten days out. My point exactly. It goes both ways on this. To get overly excited about an intense hurricane impacting the US as modeled on the long range GFS is just as silly considering the accuracy of the model at that time frame and what other models are showing. What matters is that the GFS (and other models) take a significant cyclone much further W than anything we've seen this year or last year. Emily, 92L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yep, just about every Euro run of the past several days have been showing some sort of TC, whether weak or strong in the Northern Caribbean/WNATL (though some could question whether yesterday's 12Z run showed an actual TC.) IIRC, the Euro was the first to latch on to this developing quite a few days ago. I disagree, other models show this, not just the GFS and it has been my experience tat the very large majority of situations in the past where there has been this many runs of various models showing some sort of development we at least get a depression out of it- I think that chances of that are well over 50%.. Now whether it is a hurricane, or it actually hits the US are very much in question, but I think that there will probably be a TC of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Obviously-- all ten-day modeling should be taken with a grain of salt. But are you saying we shouldn't discuss it? I'm not sure what you're getting at. This thread is for discussing long-range modeling, among other things. No one here suggested that a hurricane is going to hit FL in ten days. Relax. Part of it is because its getting hyped up too much. Just because for 10 straight runs the GFS shows a potential US landfall doesn't mean its going to happen. True, its been locked on... but its getting overplayed way too much. Let's wait till it develops into a TC first.. then we can go with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Obviously-- all ten-day modeling should be taken with a grain of salt. But are you saying we shouldn't discuss it? I'm not sure what you're getting at. This thread is for discussing long-range modeling, among other things. No one here suggested that a hurricane is going to hit FL in ten days. Relax. My point is not to focus on the GFS solely. Look at the Euro.. like I said, it has one run that remotely agrees with the GFS' scenario. Once we see more consistency out of both models together... THEN we will have something better to latch on to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 My point exactly. It goes both ways on this. To get overly excited about an intense hurricane impacting the US as modeled on the long range GFS is just as silly considering the accuracy of the model at that time frame and what other models are showing. It's not really analogous. Mainland North America is a huge target-- Hispaniola is a speck in comparison. Also, no one here said that these models mean a strong hurricane is definitely hitting the USA in ten days. Let's not create straw men. I think 95% of the people in this thread get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think multiple runs of the GFS with similar solutions out through 192 hours adjusted by the six hour starting points between runs can almost be thought of like an ensemble set, and the similar solutions suggest a fairly robust solution. The 0Z Euro was in the general ballpark, so while exact path and intensity can't be determined yet, a general trend towards a Southeast threat late next week/weekend, whether a near miss fish or a hit, can be inferred as being at least as likely to happen as not. Emily had more than just Hispaniola to deal with. The GFS has been insistent through the runs that the Cordillera doesn't deal this a death blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 To elaborate on Phil's point from last night, the GFS has been getting its tail handed to it for the last 3 weeks or so by the Euro in both the short range and medium range. There are lots of environmental factors for this wave to overcome before we start getting excited about landfall. I'm actually more excited about the synoptic pattern across NA than I am the prospects of this thing developing into a major 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I think 95% of the people in this thread get it. Under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Part of it is because its getting hyped up too much. Just because for 10 straight runs the GFS shows a potential US landfall doesn't mean its going to happen. True, its been locked on... but its getting overplayed way too much. Let's wait till it develops into a TC first.. then we can go with the models This. The hype needs to be toned down a bit... there has been plenty of hype already on multiple systems this year so far that has not panned out.... and there is still dry air/SAL among other issues that need to be worked out. Conditions are improving for sure, but let's take this one step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Part of it is because its getting hyped up too much. Just because for 10 straight runs the GFS shows a potential US landfall doesn't mean its going to happen. True, its been locked on... but its getting overplayed way too much. Let's wait till it develops into a TC first.. then we can go with the models My point is not to focus on the GFS solely. Look at the Euro.. like I said, it has one run that remotely agrees with the GFS' scenario. Once we see more consistency out of both models together... THEN we will have something better to latch on to. What is getting hyped and why do you guys feel a need to police the discussion here? An interesting pattern has emerged in the GFS and people here feel like discussing it-- which makes sense, given that the season is not offering a lot of other conversational options right now. Dudes: relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 To elaborate on Phil's point from last night, the GFS has been getting its tail handed to it for the last 3 weeks or so by the Euro in both the short range and medium range. There are lots of environmental factors for this wave to overcome before we start getting excited about landfall. I'm actually more excited about the synoptic pattern across NA than I am the prospects of this thing developing into a major 'cane. Great post and I agree... and its partially why I have been watching the Euro more than the GFS for development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Not to steal Ed's thunder, but I never trust any intensification in the GFS after the resolution chop. or before it, quite frankly. trends yes. actual intensity, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 To elaborate on Phil's point from last night, the GFS has been getting its tail handed to it for the last 3 weeks or so by the Euro in both the short range and medium range. There are lots of environmental factors for this wave to overcome before we start getting excited about landfall. I'm actually more excited about the synoptic pattern across NA than I am the prospects of this thing developing into a major 'cane. Precisely. The GFS has been way too aggressive in PW/RHs that simply are not there... like I said, conditions are improving, but we still have a ways to go. The GFS is pretty to look at, but the Euro has had the substance. When we start to get consistency out of the Euro, then I'll be more excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 or before it, quite frankly. trends yes. actual intensity, naso much. Yeah, sorry, I should have elaborated. I use the GFS for intensity trends prior to resolution chop. Beyond that, I don't trust any of the intensification trend. It's just too coarse to come close to resolving hurricane dynamics even as an approximation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Precisely. The GFS has been way too aggressive in PW/RHs that simply are not there... like I said, conditions are improving, but we still have a ways to go. The GFS is pretty to look at, but the Euro has had the substance. When we start to get consistency out of the Euro, then I'll be more excited. Cool. In the meantime, if others feel like noting the GFS pattern, just relax about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What is getting hyped and why do you guys feel a need to police the discussion here? An interesting pattern has emerged in the GFS and people here feel like discussing it-- which makes sense, given that the season is not offering a lot of other conversational options right now. Dudes: relax. I am not trying to police it. I am just trying to inject some common sense. As I have said, the GFS seems to have latched on to something... but a few people (not neseccarily on here) are trying to make it a big deal and overhype it. It hasn't developed yet out in the ocean. I understand the tropics have been boring... let's just slowly wade into the waters here and wait to see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 Yeah, sorry, I should have elaborated. I use the GFS for intensity trends prior to resolution chop. Beyond that, I don't trust any of the intensification trend. It's just too coarse to come close to resolving hurricane dynamics even as an approximation. I really wish we could just rid of the truncation BS once and for all. I much prefer how the EC (and other centers) run their models. Ideally, I'd like full resolution out to 10 days (at 00/12 UTC), and then only out to 5.5 days for the 06/18 cycles (boundary conditions for NAM, RUC, and Hurr models). /rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What is getting hyped and why do you guys feel a need to police the discussion here? An interesting pattern has emerged in the GFS and people here feel like discussing it-- which makes sense, given that the season is not offering a lot of other conversational options right now. Dudes: relax. Because to me, posting long range GFS scenarios is like posting the NAM. It's fairly useless... now trends, yes... those can be interesting if understood in the proper context which I don't think some here do... such as the GFS overintensifying and the poor trends in the actual model itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 I am not trying to police it. I am just trying to inject some common sense. As I have said, the GFS seems to have latched on to something... but a few people (not neseccarily on here) are trying to make it a big deal and overhype it. It hasn't developed yet out in the ocean. I understand the tropics have been boring... let's just slowly wade into the waters here and wait to see what happens Trying to "inject common sense"? Did someone post something crazy that I didn't see? Who posted something objectionable to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I really wish we could just rid of the truncation BS once and for all. I much prefer how the EC (and other centers) run their models. Ideally, I'd like full resolution out to 10 days (at 00/12 UTC), and then only out to 5.5 days for the 06/18 cycles (boundary conditions for NAM, RUC, and Hurr models). /rant This would be awesome... or at least extend the full resolution out to where the ECMWF has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 17, 2011 Author Share Posted August 17, 2011 Because to me, posting long range GFS scenarios is like posting the NAM. It's fairly useless... now trends, yes... those can be interesting if understood in the proper context which I don't think many here do... such as the GFS overintensifying and the poor trends in the actual model itself. And the trend is ten runs in a row showing a feature making it far W in the basin. It's interesting to some people. If you don't find it interesting-- cool. Whatevz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 !0 hits in a row with this 12Z run. Hits Beaufort, SC on 8/27. DT says the last runs 14 in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I'm actually more excited about the synoptic pattern across NA than I am the prospects of this thing developing into a major 'cane. As we briefly discussed at the end of the old thread.... couldn't agree more. It's the pattern that honestly is more alarming than any actual feature, for now. It is favorable for something to make it all the way across, if something actually forms. That's the main thing I think we should be taking from the GFS. Once it actually develops, assuming it does, then we can start to assess possible intensities and pin down potential tracks a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 I see what looks to be modest convection going on near the center of this right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 As we briefly discussed at the end of the old thread.... couldn't agree more. It's the pattern that honestly is more alarming than any actual feature, for now. It is favorable for something to make it all the way across, if something actually forms. That's the main thing I think we should be taking from the GFS. Once it actually develops, assuming it does, then we can start to assess possible intensities and pin down potential tracks a little better. This. I am not trying to downplay the threat, or disregard what the GFS is doing. I just would like to wait until the TC forms before we start pinning down strength and landfall points and the such Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 DT says the last runs 14 in a row. Someone just ask JB so we can settle this once and for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cory Posted August 17, 2011 Share Posted August 17, 2011 What is getting hyped and why do you guys feel a need to police the discussion here? An interesting pattern has emerged in the GFS and people here feel like discussing it-- which makes sense, given that the season is not offering a lot of other conversational options right now. Dudes: relax. It gets pretty damn annoying when people think you should stifle discussion over a weather system on a weather forum. I always thought these threads of yours were umbrella topics to discuss anything tropical, even if it's banter over the 10-day GFS. I don't see how this is hurting anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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