phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 what happened to the rogue storm It's there... Off Newfoundland currently. Not tropical in the least but did go through a period of rapid deepening last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Negative sir... Believe that extra ITCZ is a false positive on the GFS (the ECWMF shows little to no development). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Read again, I was shooting down the idea of another Atlantic feature behind Ophelia, but supporting the idea of a strong caribbean system down the road. Not that I have any idea of when that would occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Read again, I was shooting down the idea of another Atlantic feature behind Ophelia, but supporting the idea of a strong caribbean system down the road. Not that I have any idea of when that would occur. The musings about a strong, hawt Philippe were pure nonsense, driven by your vanity. The substance of the post was negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 The musings about a strong, hawt Philippe were pure nonsense, driven by your vanity. The substance of the post was negative. Fair enough... But outside of that we don't have much to go on in all honesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Fair enough... But outside of that we don't have much to go on in all honesty Do I need to whip out the pillow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Euro still has a broad and badly sheared system in the Caribbean heading to Florida like the 12Z run did. Might be broad enough not to use Phil's name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 2011 will be known as "the year of the tropical storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 There are still rather strong hints of a Western Caribbean disturbance in the offing for late September. The GFS as well as the Euro still advertise the monsoonal trough lifting N and subtle hints of an embedded disturbance taking shape. We will see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 There are still rather strong hints of a Western Caribbean disturbance in the offing for late September. The GFS as well as the Euro still advertise the monsoonal trough lifting N and subtle hints of an embedded disturbance taking shape. We will see... Slopgyre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Slopgyre. If I died tomorrow, this would be my singular legacy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looks like Philippe is going to be a name waster afterall 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTOF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...ANDSCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARECONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THENEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HASA LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Looks like Philippe is going to be a name waster afterall 1. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTOF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS...ANDSCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARECONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THENEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HASA LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURINGTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. We're fast approaching the latest date of formation for a TC that formed east of 50W and S of 20N (what I consider MDR region) and that later hit the CONUS. That latest date is 9/25. Some might be surprised to find out that this one formed way east (at 25W in 1893), became a 'cane by 34W, and didn't landfall in the CONUS until 10/13! So, it also was one of, if not, the slowest moving MDR storms that later hit the CONUS (moved only ~3 degrees longitude/day). The 2nd latest MDR storm CONUS HIT date was 10/4. Inez hit S FL on 10/4/1966. It formed on 9/21 near 35W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 We're fast approaching the latest date of formation for a TC that formed east of 50W and S of 20N (what I consider MDR region) and that later hit the CONUS. That latest date is 9/25. Some might be surprised to find out that this one formed way east (at 25W in 1893), became a 'cane by 34W, and didn't landfall in the CONUS until 10/13! So, it also was one of, if not, the slowest moving MDR storms that later hit the CONUS (moved only ~3 degrees longitude/day). The 2nd latest MDR storm CONUS HIT date was 10/4. Inez hit S FL on 10/4/1966. It formed on 9/21 near 35W. How certain are we that the storm that formed on 9/25/1893 at 25W is the same one that hit the CONUS on 10/13 that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 How certain are we that the storm that formed on 9/25/1893 at 25W is the same one that hit the CONUS on 10/13 that year? We're not "certain" of anything-- but this dataset has recently been reanalyzed, and it's the best we have. Everyone understands that none of it is 100% accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 The E Atlantic thing is now Mandarin. Big whoop-- it won't make it across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 How certain are we that the storm that formed on 9/25/1893 at 25W is the same one that hit the CONUS on 10/13 that year? Good Q. I have no idea. I don't know what ship reports were used to retrospectively determine that very slow track. Assuming the tracks are close to being accurate, that season had a whopping THREE storms that formed east of 40W and that later hit the CONUS! Only one other season per Unisys had that occur: 1979. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Good Q. I have no idea. I don't know what ship reports were used to retrospectively determine that very slow track. Assuming the tracks are close to being accurate, that season had a whopping THREE storms that formed east of 40W and that later hit the CONUS! Only one other season per Unisys had that occur: 1979. The question is sort of a moot point. If we want to talk about history, that database is the best we have. Of course other storms developed and weren't documented, but since this is all understood by anyone who uses the database, it's a fine foundation for historical comparisons. We understand and accept the limitations of it. Wilma 2005 might not have been the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic, but it was the strongest observed/documented one, and so it gets the crown-- and that's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 The question is sort of a moot point. If we want to talk about history, that database is the best we have. Of course other storms developed and weren't documented, but since this is all understood by anyone who uses the database, it's a fine foundation for historical comparisons. We understand and accept the limitations of it. Wilma 2005 might not have been the strongest hurricane ever in the Atlantic, but it was the strongest observed/documented one, and so it gets the crown-- and that's that. You bring up a valid statement in that it is the best info we have, and that it has usefulness regardless of its complete accuracy. I would just caution that when something that old with such sparse data fields is an outlier in the database (furtherest east to form, and only moved 3 degrees per day during its life), using it for illustrative purposes or as a boundry for what can happen is dangerous to a degree, and that is no disrespect to GAWX who used it initially. This is just my view on old records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 You bring up a valid statement in that it is the best info we have, and that it has usefulness regardless of its complete accuracy. I would just caution that when something that old with such sparse data fields is an outlier in the database (furtherest east to form, and only moved 3 degrees per day during its life), using it for illustrative purposes or as a boundry for what can happen is dangerous to a degree, and that is no disrespect to GAWX who used it initially. This is just my view on old records. I don't think GaWx ever intends these posts to be an indication of what is or isn't physically possible. They're just statistical discussions that suggest what's likely based on the range of previously observed events. I think everyone-- and especially GaWx-- knows the database is not complete and that it doesn't represent the range of all conceivable solutions. (Even if the database was 100% accurate/complete, there are always going to be new events that break previous records.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I don't think GaWx ever intends these posts to be an indication of what is or isn't physically possible. They're just statistical discussions that suggest what's likely based on the range of previously observed events. I think everyone-- and especially GaWx-- knows the database is not complete and that it doesn't represent the range of all conceivable solutions. (Even if the database was 100% accurate, there are always going to be new events that break previous records.) Yes, this is pretty much how I think about this database. I think of it as a tool that can be used to get a good feel for what is/isn't a reasonable possibility during various parts of the season. Regardless, exceptional events are always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Local KHOU-TV Channel 11 weather forum mystery pro-met "WxMan57" posted a forecast plot from a Japanese source that indicates Tropical Season 2012 might be much more fun. 2013, ok, even Nino years can have an Andrew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Local KHOU-TV Channel 11 weather forum mystery pro-met "WxMan57" posted a forecast plot from a Japanese source that indicates Tropical Season 2012 might be much more fun. 2013, ok, even Nino years can have an Andrew... There is nothing in that graph to indicate such a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 ATLC = 15/3/2 EPAC = 8/7/4 Truly a LOLseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 Yeah....I was going to post a long blog about KW's, MJO, crappy pattern in short to medium term, but the above picture pretty much fit the bill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Yeah....I was going to post a long blog about KW's, MJO, crappy pattern in short to medium term, but the above picture pretty much fit the bill.... Yep. P.S. There's a new lemon near the Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Yep. P.S. There's a new lemon near the Bahamas. I am still waiting for Hurricane Diana redux only without the loop........, it was the first hurricane to hit NC in my lifetime that I remember, winds here never got close to hurricane force as I recall ( I was 12) but I was excited because we didnt have school due to the storm. If I remember right she formed from a similar type setup on the tail end of a old front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 24, 2011 Author Share Posted September 24, 2011 I am still waiting for Hurricane Diana redux only without the loop........, it was the first hurricane to hit NC in my lifetime that I remember, winds here never got close to hurricane force as I recall ( I was 12) but I was excited because we didnt have school due to the storm. If I remember right she formed from a similar type setup on the tail end of a old front. Diana 1984 was the second landfalling hurricane I tracked closely. (The first was Alicia 1983.) It was a weird system, because it formed very close to the coast from a crappy setup-- the type of thing I pretty-much ignore these days-- and yet it got very intense-- almost Cat 4. And, yeah, if it didn't veer a little to the right and make that loop, it would have come in really strong, and it would have been an historic landfall for NC. It reminds me a little of Helene 1958-- another powerful cyclone that veered just off the coast near Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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