Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part IV

[Cheeznado]

Big Bermuda ridge will make it possible for 98L to get into the Caribbean, but like Phil, I'm bearish with this one... shear, troughs and probably Hispaniola await it there.

Agree, not one of the models intensify this one much if all, but you never know. At least it is a bit more interesting than the nothing of the past week....

[GaWx]

Based on my analysis of +AMO La Ninas, I maintain that 10/1-15 will likely be more interesting than the rest of this month as far as the CONUS is concerned. 98-L doesn't look like it has more than a very tiny chance for CONUS impact. I say look ahead to early Oct. Maybe after that pesky eastern US upper low finally fills/leaves, we can get some real upper ridging by very late this month and hopefully set the table for some fun. IF the 12Z GFS were to be right, that would occur ~9/29. To reiterate, the % of +AMO La Nina seasons with a major CONUS H hit has been a whopping ~15 times as high (nearly 30% or 8 of 28) as that for +AMO non-La Nina seasons (a mere 2% or a paltry 1 of 57) since 1877. I'm not predicting a major hit or even a H hit. I'm just saying that the highlight of this season could still easily be ahead of us based on past +AMO La Ninas.

Here are the eight +AMO La Nina seasons since 1877 with at least one 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit (actually nine total hits):

1886, 1893 (had two), 1894, 1898, 1949, 1954 (Hazel), 1964 (Hilda), 1995 (Opal)

Ten major hit dates: 10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/8, 10/12, 10/13, 10/15

Going back to 1877, there have been only two other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15, i.e., during the other 106 seasons!! They were in 1877 and 1909.

So, 9 major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only two during the other 106 seasons!! Anyone see a decent correlation?

**Corrected**

[Floydbuster]

This could still be an issue down the road.

Remember, in the Hurricane Season of 2000, it was on September 28th that we had three storms, Hurricane Isaac moving out to sea, Hurricane Joyce destined to be a biggie for the Caribbean/Gulf, and Hurricane Keith in the development stages. Of course, 2000 faltered as Joyce fizzled and Keith didn't strike the U.S., but still...that was very active and that was some 9-10 days from where we are now.

I also recall a wave much like 98L in the Central Atlantic in October 2001 that entered the Caribbean and ended up being Cat 4 Hurricane Iris into Belize.

[GaWx]

I also recall a wave much like 98L in the Central Atlantic in October 2001 that entered the Caribbean and ended up being Cat 4 Hurricane Iris into Belize.

Mike,

I say forget about 98L and look beyond it. 98L? We don't need no stinkin' 98L (to paraphrase a classic movie line). We have the potentially great 10/1-15 ahead of us to which we both alluded.

[HurricaneJosh]

Based on my analysis of +AMO La Ninas, I maintain that 10/1-15 will likely be more interesting than the rest of this month as far as the CONUS is concerned. 98-L doesn't look like it has more than a very tiny chance for CONUS impact. I say look ahead to early Oct. Maybe after that pesky eastern US upper low finally fills/leaves, we can get some real upper ridging by very late this month and hopefully set the table for some fun. IF the 12Z GFS were to be right, that would occur ~9/29. To reiterate, the % of +AMO La Nina seasons with a major CONUS H hit has been a whopping SIX times as high (30% or 8 of 28) as that for +AMO non-La Nina seasons (a mere 5% or a paltry 3 of 57) since 1877. I'm not predicting a major hit or even a H hit. I'm just saying that the highlight of this season could still easily be ahead of us based on past +AMO La Ninas.

Here are the eight +AMO La Nina seasons since 1877 with at least one 10/1-15 CONUS major H hit (actually ten total hits):

1886, 1893 (had two), 1894, 1898, 1949, 1954 (Hazel), 1964 (had two, Hilda and Isbell), 1995 (Opal)

Ten major hit dates: 10/2, 10/2, 10/3, 10/4, 10/4, 10/8, 10/12, 10/13, 10/14, 10/15

Going back to 1877, there have been only four other major CONUS hits during 10/1-15, i.e., during the other 106 seasons!! They were in 1877, 1909, 1941, and 1948.

So, 10 major 10/1-15 hits during the 28 +AMO Nina seasons and only four during the other 106 seasons!! Anyone see a decent correlation?

Wow-- interesting stat there. Let's see what happens. It seems a lot of people have their hopes pinned on early October.

P.S. Just because I know you want your stats to be 100% accurate, please note Isbell 1964 was not a major landfall for the USA. Here's the official and most-current NHC landfall list: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes-aug2011.html

P.P.S. The 1949 'cane is not listed as a major, however, a recent reanalsyis paper suggests it was-- so, while that's not official at this point, it seems reasonable to include it here.

[Ed Lizard]

I like 1949 on that list because it had the extremely rare October hit (and possibly a major, at that) in Texas. Otherwise, September 25th, the unofficial end of IMBY season rapidly approaches.

I think its a good thing models don't show immediate love for 98L. GFS stretches out the low level vorticity of 98L from Panama to Haiti by the truncation, but still has it, and while the 250 mb forecast doesn't show the classic anticyclone, it suggests divergence aloft with nearly calm winds over CA accelerating to nearly 20 knots.

[GaWx]

Wow-- interesting stat there. Let's see what happens. It seems a lot of people have their hopes pinned on early October.

P.S. Just because I know you want your stats to be 100% accurate, please note Isbell 1964 was not a major landfall for the USA. Here's the official and most-current NHC landfall list: http://www.aoml.noaa...es-aug2011.html

P.S. The 1949 'cane is not listed as a major, however, a recent reanalsyis paper suggests it was-- so, while that's not official at this point, it seems reasonable to include it here.

Thanks, Josh. I was using another source (Unisys, which shows it as a cat. 3 hit) and maybe should have known to cross-check it with the data from your link. Honestly, I had forgotten about that link.

Assuming that 1949 will remain as a major hit, taking out Isbell will, obviously, reduce the ten +AMO La Nina hits to nine hits. OTOH, the number of +AMO La Nina seasons with a major hit would remain at eight since 1964 also had Hilda.

Interestingly (per your link), both 1941 and 1948 would drop out of the +AMO non-La Nina major hit list because they're listed as cat. 2's. Would (could) you confirm that they were not major FL hits, including the Keys for the 1948 H? TIA

Assuming that 1941, 1948, and Isbell all need to be taken out of the major hit list, that would mean the following for major CONUS 10/1-15 H hits since 1877:

1) +AMO La Nina seasons: 28 seasons, nine hits, eight seasons with hits (29%)

2) +AMO non-La Nina seasons: 57 seasons, only one hit (2%) (1877)

3) -AMO seasons of any ENSO: 49 seasons, only one hit (2%) (1909, which actually was a La Nina season).

4) Non-La Nina seasons of any AMO: 92 seasons, only one hit (1%) (1877)

So, the +AMO La Nina stat would actually stick out even more with the corrections.

[klw]

Does that blob right off of Georgia/ South Carolina have any potential to be worth keeping an eye on?

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_visible_100.jpg

I doubt it would rate anywhere on the FEMA Waffle House Index but ...

http://online.wsj.co...ories#printMode

Sorry if that story was already discussed.

[bobbutts]

Dr. Jeff Masters - Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season

[HurricaneJosh]

Thanks, Josh. I was using another source (Unisys, which shows it as a cat. 3 hit) and maybe should have known to cross-check it with the data from your link. Honestly, I had forgotten about that link.

Assuming that 1949 will remain as a major hit, taking out Isbell will, obviously, reduce the ten +AMO La Nina hits to nine hits. OTOH, the number of +AMO La Nina seasons with a major hit would remain at eight since 1964 also had Hilda.

Interestingly (per your link), both 1941 and 1948 would drop out of the +AMO non-La Nina major hit list because they're listed as cat. 2's. Would (could) you confirm that they were not major FL hits, including the Keys for the 1948 H? TIA

Hey, Larry--

I always tell folks I think Unisys is not the best data resource, as it doesn't always seem to be up to date. I highly recommend this tool, which is maintained by our fellow AmWx member, Jorge (wxmx): http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php#map_top I recommend it because he stays on top of reanalysis and updates the data sources diligently, and when available, he includes the landfall fixes (for example, see pre-1930 and post-1985 storms).

Re: the 1948 'cane, the reanalysis paper on it has the landfall intensity at 90 kt, so that's sure to stay Cat 2 since it agrees with the previous assessment. I can't find any reanalysis work on the 1941 'cane, in which case, I would go with what the official list says: Cat 2.

[Amped]

Now for something thats below average. I was going to post this but Jeff Masters beat me to it.

[HurricaneJosh]

Dr. Jeff Masters - Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season

Ugh, just a dreadful outlook. All this talk of stable air, with a prediction of only two more hurricanes, with a continued parade of East Coast troughs. Ugh ugh ugh. Just solid fail all around.

I'm just going to pretend I didn't read that!

[andyhb]

Dr. Jeff Masters - Invest 98L spinning up; outlook for remainder of hurricane season

[Amped]

Ugh, just a dreadful outlook. All this talk of stable air, with a prediction of only two more hurricanes, with a continued parade of East Coast troughs. Ugh ugh ugh. Just solid fail all around.

I'm just going to pretend I didn't read that!

Texas ridge continues. GFS and Euro keep ridging there throughout the period. It'll probably move the day winter starts so the MA gets screwed.

[Hurriplane]

At first I lol'd but then I Serious'd.

[MJO812]

Larry Cosgrove on facebook

There is a LOT of bad weather

coming up for the eastern half of the nation. The storm now digging into the

Upper Midwest may present a severe weather threat Tuesday into Wednesday for the

Corn Belt and Great Lakes. But as this low deepens and slows over the Ohio

Valley, linkage with a deep moisture fetch will present the risk of a major

flooding rain event in Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard between September

23-30. There is a chance that at some point a tropical disturbance could

get involved (not Invest 98L, which is about 12 - 14 days from being a threat to

the U.S. coastline).

[CooL]

MJO clearly not favoring the atlantic basin right now..It hasnt been for a while, ever since the sharp dropoff in activity.. I would look towards the beginning of October now for any real action.

[atownwxwatcher]

As of 2 AM we are now up to 70 %

[Eyewall2005]

In terms of the U.S with a huge trof progged by the globals this thing will get shunted to the NE sooner rather then later as many this season.

[Srain]

The operational GFS is beginning to sniff out some Carla cradle action in the longer range.

[Cheeznado]

The operational GFS is beginning to sniff out some Carla cradle action in the longer range.

Yeah, the 384 GFS has a TC hitting New Orleans. This does match with the Nina climo.....

[Ed Lizard]

OK, at 240 hours the Euro has really sheared it apart, but a sloppy, shared low from the Caribbean that might affect extreme South Florida, what's not to love.

I post only the 216 image. Because I'm a natural optimist.

[thewxmann]

OK, at 240 hours the Euro has really sheared it apart, but a sloppy, shared low from the Caribbean that might affect extreme South Florida, what's not to love.

I post only the 216 image. Because I'm a natural optimist.

I direct hate towards sloppy gyres that kill the OHC prematurely.

[Ed Lizard]

I direct hate towards sloppy gyres that kill the OHC prematurely.

You didn't love 2010 Slopgyre season?

[HurricaneJosh]

I'm glad the GFS is sniffing W-Caribbean activity-- right on time climatologically-- and I hardly see the point in getting upset over what are fine details (like the structure of the presumed cyclone or the shear pattern) 10 days out.

[Ginx snewx]

The operational GFS is beginning to sniff out some Carla cradle action in the longer range.

Actually right on schedule, should be a rather interesting ten days, ten out of 140, better than nothing.

[HurricaneJosh]

Actually right on schedule, should be a rather interesting ten days, ten out of 140, better than nothing.

Yeah, October in the W Caribbean can be pure hawtness-- so many super-sexy cyclones over the last 50 years in that zone/timeframe.

[NorEaster27]

what happened to the rogue storm

[Floydbuster]

Actually right on schedule, should be a rather interesting ten days, ten out of 140, better than nothing.

Yep, shows Philippe forming in Central Atlantic and staying weak, then Hurricane Rina coming out of Caribbean and striking just north of Tampa. Not bad...

[phil882]

Yep, shows Philippe forming in Central Atlantic and staying weak, then Hurricane Rina coming out of Caribbean and striking just north of Tampa. Not bad...

Negative sir... Believe that extra ITCZ feature is a false positive on the GFS (the ECWMF shows little to no development). However I'm on board for Philippe to be a monster in the Caribbean. My reasoning? It's my name and I'm certainly not going to let myself be some wimpy cape verde TS