Floydbuster Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The latest long-range GFS shows a bunch of storms. Tropical Storm Ophelia wandering off Africa into the Central Atlantic Hurricane Philippe being a Gordon-2000 type track into Florida Hurricane Rina forming off the Cape Verdes Hurricane Sean forming behind Rina If by 384 hrs we still have Cape Verde waves developing and we are waiting on Tammy, no doubt we're headed for Greek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The latest long-range GFS shows a bunch of storms. Tropical Storm Ophelia wandering off Africa into the Central Atlantic Hurricane Philippe being a Gordon-2000 type track into Florida Hurricane Rina forming off the Cape Verdes Hurricane Sean forming behind Rina If by 384 hrs we still have Cape Verde waves developing and we are waiting on Tammy, no doubt we're headed for Greek. I wouldn't really count on the post-truncation GFS to get an exact number of storms the next 16 days. 240 hour GFS ensembles show two potentially favorable areas from the 250 mb standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The latest long-range GFS shows a bunch of storms. Tropical Storm Ophelia wandering off Africa into the Central Atlantic Hurricane Philippe being a Gordon-2000 type track into Florida Hurricane Rina forming off the Cape Verdes Hurricane Sean forming behind Rina If by 384 hrs we still have Cape Verde waves developing and we are waiting on Tammy, no doubt we're headed for Greek. september 18th is 5 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 The latest long-range GFS shows a bunch of storms. Tropical Storm Ophelia wandering off Africa into the Central Atlantic Hurricane Philippe being a Gordon-2000 type track into Florida Hurricane Rina forming off the Cape Verdes Hurricane Sean forming behind Rina If by 384 hrs we still have Cape Verde waves developing and we are waiting on Tammy, no doubt we're headed for Greek. How do you like the storm that comes up from the CC across the Yucatan, slams into Tampa, then over the Atlantic curves back S and SW to hit Miami? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not in the same place, but there is some suggestion of short lead time hijinks of perhaps a subtropical nature somewhere off the M.A or SE in about a week. Going with the glass overflowing GFS, SSTs off Virginia Beach are just a touch below 26ºC, but if the system is hybrid, that might be enough for locked threads and super secret moderation. I'm still more excited by the Tampa Trampler beyond truncation time, but the board needs a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 13, 2011 Share Posted September 13, 2011 Not in the same place, but there is some suggestion of short lead time hijinks of perhaps a subtropical nature somewhere off the M.A or SE in about a week. Going with the glass overflowing GFS, SSTs off Virginia Beach are just a touch below 26ºC, but if the system is hybrid, that might be enough for locked threads and super secret moderation. I'm still more excited by the Tampa Trampler beyond truncation time, but the board needs a system. Looks like a broad mess, similar to STC Nichole last year but a lot drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 What a strange season this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 What a crap season this has been. Fixed it fer ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 september 18th is 5 days away I guess I use that date because Carla...Charley...Andrew...Katrina...Great Miami (Cat 4)....Ivan...Lake Okechobee (Cat 4)...Labor Day...Dean...Felix...were all before September 18th. Of course Hazel...Hugo...Wilma...Rita...Jeanne were all after, but ya know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Besides the hybrid howler or Rogue Storm or whateer, GFS is showig the begining of the potential Tampa Trampla in the Caribbean with 500 mb heights suggestive it will come North. Euro has something that looks like a farther South version of a hybrid howler, although it appears, as best I can tell in 24 hour time steps, the low level vorticity comes from the East, so it wouldn't be purely a non-tropical to tropical developmment. Best I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Folks, Prior to any possible W Caribbean excitement, I still feel that the area off of the SE coast should be closely monitored for potential tropical development next week. Today's 0z Euro is rather intriguing in that it has the NE US high hanging around longer just offshore, more 500 mb high pressure near and just offshore the mid- Atlantic, and even a weak sfc low pressure forming off the SE US coast by the middle of next week. Let's see what today's 12z models do, especially the Euro. I'm currently going with about a 50% chance for a named storm to form in that general area next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Folks, Prior to any possible W Caribbean excitement, I still feel that the area off of the SE coast should be closely monitored for potential tropical development next week. Today's 0z Euro is rather intriguing in that it has the NE US high hanging around longer just offshore, more 500 mb high pressure near and just offshore the mid- Atlantic, and even a weak sfc low pressure forming off the SE US coast by the middle of next week. Let's see what today's 12z models do, especially the Euro. I'm currently going with about a 50% chance for a named storm to form in that general area next week. You're right the SE slop storm has more support, but a potential Tampa Trampla will be much more interestng to follow. GFS comes very close to closing off the SE slop storm in under 5 days, vorticity does come from the East but it is clearly frontal remnants. GFS then sends most of that system out to sea, but I recall talk of that being a common GFS error in the old days. No idea if trying to move something into the Westerlies is also a new GFS failing. GFS still has the Tampa Trampla in a week. Or what could be the beginning of it, anyway. I wish RH was better North of it on this 4 panel plot, but shear looks favorable, and the system will be over warm water and in good mean RH and with good RH to its South, and again steering looks good to come North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Better than nothing if it happens. HPC snip. FIRST COOL FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE NORTHEAST WITHAN ONSHORE NE FLOW FROM THE MID ATLC REGION INTO NRN FL FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A LONG FETCH OF 8-10 FT SEAS COMING INTO THE MID ATLC BEACHES AND WITH COASTAL RAIN POTENTIAL SERN VA/NERN NC. THERE ALWAYS REMAINS A THREAT OF FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN THE COOL SEASONS WITH SOME HINTS BY RECENT MODEL RUNS OF BASICALLY AN INVERTED SFC TROF THAT APPEARS AND DISSAPPEARS FROM RUN TO RUN. LATEST CMC DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SFC WAVE AND LOW FROM THE LOWER LEVELS BY DAYS 3-5 WITH QPF OUTPUT SUGGESTIVE OF A TROPICAL/HYBRID SYSTEM. THE CMC UNDERWENT MAJOR MODIFICATIONS EARLIER THIS YEAR TO REDUCE ITS TENDENCY FROM STRONG AND RAPID COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS IS A FIRST TEST OF THE RESULTS. THIS SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW BY HPC AS OVERDONE AND TOO FAR NORTH. THERE ARE A FAIR NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES MEMBERS FROM AT LEAST 3 MODELS INDICATING AT LEAST AN H850 LOW IN THIS REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Fixed it fer ya. Agreed, especially now that the GFS has backed down on the caribien solution and euro shows nothing of note either. 2 Hurricanes is really crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Better than nothing if it happens. HPC snip. Not sure I agree. This season has had a literal swarm of crappy, high-latitude namewasters. It's getting totally ancient. Do we need more of that? I'd rather just have quiet for two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Not sure I agree. This season has had a literal swarm of crappy, high-latitude namewasters. It's getting totally ancient. Do we need more of that? I'd rather just have quiet for two weeks. ? There's only been four high latituders. Bret, maybe, but that's borderline. There were 4 storms in the Gulf, 1 in the Caribbean, and 4 from Africa (counting Irene/Emily). I'd hardly say any one region is having a swarm over another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 ? There's only been four high latituders. Bret, maybe, but that's borderline. There were 4 storms in the Gulf, 1 in the Caribbean, and 4 from Africa. I'd hardly say any one region is having a swarm over another. Four high-latitude pieces of crap by 14 Sep is a lot to me. My point remains: the season has produced shockingly lame systems (high-, low-, and mid-latitude) and it's just boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Four high-latitude pieces of crap by 14 Sep is a lot to me. My point remains: the season has produced shockingly lame systems (high-, low-, and mid-latitude) and it's just boring. Four in context of the other regions is not a lot. If there were four high latituders and 1 in each of the other regions, then you'd have a point. I think it is hilarious at this point simply for the novelty. You'll get a good hurricane, but this season will provide excellent research material for seasonal outlooks in terms of the dry air/shear prevalent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 14, 2011 Author Share Posted September 14, 2011 Four in context of the other regions is not a lot. If there were four high latituders and 1 in each of the other regions, then you'd have a point. You're splitting hairs over something which was not in any way essential to the point of my post. I think it is hilarious at this point simply for the novelty. You'll get a good hurricane, but this season will provide excellent research material for seasonal outlooks in terms of the dry air/shear prevalent. Agreed on both points. It is funny in a sick way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted September 14, 2011 Share Posted September 14, 2011 Looks like a broad mess, similar to STC Nichole last year but a lot drier. The aftermath of Nicole was what shut the door on the FL rainy season last year and that door shut TIGHT when that lame system went by. Global warming opponents are loving this tropical season and those of recent past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 There's a new African lemon. It's almost irritating to see it, given how much bait-and-switch we've seen from African systems this year-- and, also, it's getting just a tad late in the season to expect one of these to make it across. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Based on what the latest long-range GFS shows, Hurricane Rina hits Southwest Florida Sept 29th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 I'm really hanging my hat on this next divergence wave that will hit the Atlantic around Sep 28-Oct 3. I don't expect anything interesting before then (high latitude, subtropical nonsense is not interesting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Based on what the latest long-range GFS shows, Hurricane Rina hits Southwest Florida Sept 29th Doupt that will verify...06z GFS has nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Doupt that will verify...06z GFS has nothing. Don't give up hope with one model run. The same thing happened with yesterday's model runs... 00Z had it, 06Z didn't while 12Z brought it back. 00Z today had it while 06Z lost it again. Remember, look at the overall pattern and don't go with exactly what a model puts out. The pattern is setting up for a storm to be sucked into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of September... That is IF a storm develops, which we'll have to wait and see. Be patient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Don't give up hope with one model run. The same thing happened with yesterday's model runs... 00Z had it, 06Z didn't while 12Z brought it back. 00Z today had it while 06Z lost it again. Remember, look at the overall pattern and don't go with exactly what a model puts out. The pattern is setting up for a storm to be sucked into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of September... That is IF a storm develops, which we'll have to wait and see. Be patient Plenty of patience here just frustrated with the overall season. Hopefully october brings some interesting things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Don't give up hope with one model run. The same thing happened with yesterday's model runs... 00Z had it, 06Z didn't while 12Z brought it back. 00Z today had it while 06Z lost it again. Remember, look at the overall pattern and don't go with exactly what a model puts out. The pattern is setting up for a storm to be sucked into the Gulf of Mexico at the end of September... That is IF a storm develops, which we'll have to wait and see. Be patient The 12Z gfs is the 2nd in a row showing a very low lat. westward moving (or possibly moving a touch S of W) TC in the E ATL within just the next couple of days. IF this turns out to be a real TC and if it actually ends up moving at ~270 degrees or lower and even though it is rather late in the season for an MDR storm to make it across, climo would say that it would have a decent shot at getting pretty far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 The 12Z gfs is the 2nd in a row showing a very low lat. westward moving (or possibly moving a touch S of W) TC in the E ATL within just the next couple of days. IF this turns out to be a real TC and if it actually ends up moving at ~270 degrees or lower and even though it is rather late in the season for an MDR storm to make it across, climo would say that it would have a decent shot at getting pretty far west. That would make me as happy as a girl getting a pony for Christmas, between the reapparance of what I have been calling the Tampa Trampla (although forecast motion and heights makes a premature death by CA a possibility earlier GFS runs weren't showing) and the ridge is actually building back West, suggesting this makes it well into the Caribbean before a recurve, if any. I like the 4 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 The Euro has a Cape Verde storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 Maria becomes lamocane No. 3-- N of Bermuda. Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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